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To be very clear:
- This is not, in ethos, my proposal. Aave Labs has (for whatever reason) unilaterally submitted my proposal to vote in a rush, with my name on it, and without notifying me at all. If asked, I would not have approved it.
- It was not my intention to submit the vote while the community was still having a healthy discussion around it, with valuable points appearing continuously. It breaks all codes of trust with the community.
- Public governance is supposed to be for, even if hard sometimes, open discussion. Trying to rush a vote is disgraceful.
Iโm pretty bullish.
Why. Rare earth metals kicked off the liquidation cascade. Bc War with China (rare earths used for missiles) would be insanely bad. Rare earths have fully retraced move. Trump / Xi had an โokayโ meeting. If we were going to have imminent geopolitical escalation - itโd be non stop hacking. Maybe good for North Koreans (?) but bad for crypto vs gold
Biggest concern was consumer bc Chipotle / Draftkings Las Vegas and consumer sentiment indicate it is extremely over. With $2k stimulus checks it is not, in fact, over. More speculative money goes straight into the casino - means alt demand
Balance sheet expansion starts soon. This makes it easier to take overnight risk and leverage funds up. Funds can now access crypto instruments and stocks
Fink is saying to tokenize everything. I donโt think heโd be focused on this nor would Jamie Dimon if the Clarity Act werenโt unlikely to pass. The government is deliberately turning the economy into a casino with stablecoin collateral to fund the deficit.
This is hard to unplug once you do it. So even though Republican congress odds are off a cliff it probably doesnโt matter pragmatically. We will get the legislation we need and wonโt go to jail before 2028
Everyone is max bearish. And increasingly people realize the OpenAi IpO might just be an exit scam. Or thatโs in the Overton window now that people realize the ROI on ai spend isnโt there but it doesnโt matter bc Nvidia can probably manufacture another $1T of revenue
So stocks have outperformed crypto sustainably bc the narrative that equities are real and crypto is a scam. But if equities are a scam (highly likely) - and crypto now has privacy enabled in a liquid fashion (see Z cash and surging XMR liquidity, railgun on eth). Crypto becomes anti fragile way to play equity upside and keep your money out of the system after the crash
Plus the part of AI thatโs not a scam (dev work) - probably accelerates crypto roadmaps and cuts the cash burn for bloated teams
I think ppl are waiting for a Luna esque shoe to drop but it would have dropped by now. Ethena has the money. The depeg wick was probably user error on binance. Things like aster and the hyperliquidation of everything turn every wallet interface into a casino (bullish fees)
Korean stock market 80%+ ytd run means thereโs a vast amount of wealth in AI exposed stocks in Korea - that will be primed to rotate back into coins once the winds shift
And you have massive checks going into and focused stablecoin teams to ensure users have money a couple clicks from stables, wallets or perp dex enabled wallets
Trump administration probably pressures the s&p steering committee to get MSTR in Dec 19 which could inflect the narrative on DATs. The biggest risk for alts is that DATs become activist targets and alts get sold back onto the market while thereโs no liquidity
Going into Spring of next year youโll have both ECB and BOE headlines on CBDCs and I think by this point ppl realize these are Orwellian Nightmare organizations - and with liquid privacy coins - can see a lot of money getting swept into crypto.
A lot of the concerns are trailing and a lot of the benefits (like on chain accretion due to institutional tokenization) are forward looking. People are depressed and rekt. So this is probably the part of the cycle where the institutions buy your coins. Thanks for playing
1/ ๐จ LUKE BELMAR SUED BY CO-FOUNDER STEVE TAN OVER ALLEGED $15M PROFIT DIVERSION! Capital Club's Co-Founder @heystevetan posting "The mask finally slips" along with court document. Tan alleges a HUGE BETRAYAL after pouring in $4M+ to build their empire. Full Thread Breakdown๐