Dan

crypto, tech, politics

[Dan @slipppyd]

not the first time polymarket interpretate results unlogical

[willo2 @willo2_Poly]

I was just scammed for $500K by Polymarket.

I am "willo2", the top holder of YES on "MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May 31st".

Here's what happened:

[PredictTrader @polymarketbet]

How the Conflict in Ukraine Led to the Conflict in Polymarket - operation "Zelensky's Suit 2.0"

A bit of background: one of the most popular markets on Polymarket is the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. This market is also controversial, as several ceasefires announced in recent years (during which the price of the “YES” reached 90%) were not counted as “Yes” by the Polymarket team, which issued additional clarifications stating that only a ceasefire leading to a complete end to the conflict would be sufficient.

On May 9, 2026: Russia, Ukraine and Trump announced a three-day temporary ceasefire and permission to hold a military parade on Red Square as well as a prisoner exchange. This ceasefire was expected (Russia and Ukraine consistently agree to ceasefires on dates such as May 9, Easter and other important dates for these countries). However according to Polymarket the probability of a ceasefire in May was only 5% - everyone on Polymarket knows that all previous markets were settled as “NO” because temporary ceasefires are not taken into account for the “Russia-Ukraine ceasefire” market on Polymarket. Even after the ceasefire was declared by all three parties the price of YES shares was only 3.4%.

Suddenly, Polymarket issued a clarification for the market that was the exact opposite, stating:

"Additional context: Updated May 9. A mutual agreement to halt military engagement between Russia and Ukraine has been publicly announced and confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting."

The price of "YES" as a result of explanations from the Polymarket skyrockets to 100% and all markets associated with the ceasefire are resolved as "YES".

Why is this decision so strange? Because Russia and Ukraine have already concluded temporary ceasefires, and each time Polymarket pointed out that it was insufficient. Here are some historical examples.

"2026 Russo-Ukrainian truce was a brief truce between Russia and Ukraine, during their ongoing war. On 11 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC a 32-hour truce began for Orthodox Easter between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The truce had been proposed by President Zelenskyy of Ukraine nearly a week before, and President Putin of Russia had set its period"

CNN 2025 May 7 "Putin’s 3-day ceasefire comes into effect"

NPR: Putin had declared a unilateral 72-hour ceasefire starting May 7, 2025

Ukraine and Russia have confirmed their commitment to a “ceasefire” from May 9 to May 11, 2025.

Here is the statement released by the Polymarket team in May 2025 which dashed any hopes “YES” holders had last year: "Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify."

and

"On April 19, Vladimir Putin announced that “guided by humanitarian considerations, today from 18:00 to 00:00 from Sunday to Monday, the Russian side declares an Easter truce”. Per the rules, "humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market". Thus, an 'Easter truce’, as it has been widely reported, will not qualify, even if reciprocated by Ukraine."

May 2026 - TASS: "The ceasefire is a truly unprecedented humanitarian step."

Polymarket issued two opposing clarifications for the same market responding to the same event related to that market - a three-day truce in the celebration of Victory Day.

The logic of the "No" holders was simple: Polymarket doesn't account for humanitarian pauses (in the form of holiday truces) for the purposes of this market so the holiday truce will not be counted as in all previous years.

Will all "Yes" holders be compensated in 2025 or all "No" holders in 2026? Polymarket effectively interpreted the same event twice in a way that went against the majority opinion. In 2025, they took money from those who had bet on “YES,” and in 2026, from those who had bet on “NO,” relying on a precedent set by the platform itself.

[MomentumⓂ️Ⓜ️T @MMTFinance]

MMT TGE is happening tomorrow!

@binance spot listing goes live at 2025-11-04 | 12:00 (UTC)

Binance users will be able to participate in Binance HODLer airdrop campaign, with a chance to earn MMT with retroactive BNB simple earn subscriptions.

Read more:
https://t.co/q5pUWvEedg

[Machina @EXM7777]

Gemini Nano Banana can be incredible if you know what prompts to use...

i've built my own library of presets for ads, logos and all kinds of styles

bookmark these 20 JSON templates:

[The Daily Ai @The_DailyAi]

Google just build the craziest AI photo editor ever

Nano Banana in Gemini is wild

People are already dropping insane use cases

10 wild examples :

1. Model pose like the sketch

[Dan @slipppyd]

@BlikskeEnergie @MoonOverlord 100%
low risks = low investment return

[Dan @slipppyd]

Growth and Partnerships: Thrive is expanding partnerships and integrating with other DeFi projects to enhance its offerings
Overall, Thrive Protocol positioning itself as long-term player in the DeFi with a focus on sustainability security & community engagement.
@thriveprotocol

[Dan @slipppyd]

Thrive Protocol is a DeFi project focused on building a sustainable, community-driven ecosystem within the crypto space. Its goal is to offer users a way to generate passive income, participate in governance, and contribute to the platform’s growth.

@thriveprotocol

[Dan @slipppyd]

Key Highlights:
$THRIVE Token: The native token is central to the protocol, used for staking, earning rewards, and governance. Token holders can vote on important decisions and influence the project's direction.

[Dan @slipppyd]

Security and Transparency: The project emphasizes secure smart contracts and regular audits, ensuring that users can trust the platform.

[Dan @slipppyd]

Community Focus: The platform is decentralized, giving users a direct voice in how the protocol evolves. Thrive prioritizes transparency and active community involvement.

[Dan @slipppyd]

Sustainability: Thrive aims for long-term viability, incorporating yield farming and liquidity incentives to create a stable ecosystem beyond short-term speculation.

[Dan @slipppyd]

Yap early, yap only, yap often.

@KaitoAI is connecting AI, attention and capital with Yaps.

Just claimed my social card and I'm accumulating Yap points in real-time.

Claim yours 👉 https://t.co/jinBdc08NA

[Dan @slipppyd]

referral
https://t.co/MOgjeNAaOy

[Dan @slipppyd]

last week I started using only @MMTFinance for @SuiNetwork swaps

use platform, lock liquidity - standard pattern, familiar from '23-'24

Afm its:
1) easy things to do
2) there an't so many users on sui
so Im using it to qualify future drop
ll be worth it? well we ll see

[Dan @slipppyd]

probably that's associates with more unpredictable crypto market, less volumes on shitcoins (some of the nfts volume were probably caused by @pudgypenguins and so on) & less quantity of the opensea farmers (ppl usually bored on long time farming or an't ready pay so many fees)

[Dan @slipppyd]

that's interesting

[Tat Thang @tatthang]

4/ Liquidity & Volume:

OpenSea and other marketplaces have much lower trading volume now. Blur created some volume with farming in 2023, but when incentives slowed, so did trading.

A lot of collections have flat floors with no trades for weeks. Most NFT markets are quiet.

[Dan @slipppyd]

my thoughts were that NFTs volumes are strongly affiliated with blur/opensea farming seasons, but we can see that nfts had less volume now while opensea farming is still going on

[Dan @slipppyd]

@AllGreenCandles 100 % next time it ll be excellent

[Dan @slipppyd]

@tradekingmehn Ye, a little

chrono rush is ponzi game on @solana made by @_portals_ (it's more information on their twitter)
u use their token to upgrade your "ship" and earn more