성정현

[J Law @JLawStock]

Yesterday’s surge in $CRWD, $PANW and $FTNT came from a rather ironic source: IBM’s profit warning.

$IBM said some clients were being distracted by rapidly evolving, industry-wide cybersecurity concerns.

The read-through was clear:

As AI increases the speed, scale and complexity of cyber threats, cybersecurity is not becoming less relevant. It is becoming more urgent, more mission-critical and a higher priority within enterprise IT budgets.

We began doing deep research on this group several months ago, both inside JLA and through our free public YouTube content, when cybersecurity was still far from being one of the market’s strongest groups.

Our view was simple:

Cybersecurity is a necessary part of the AI buildout.

The irony is hard to miss.

Earlier this year, cybersecurity stocks were heavily sold off after Anthropic demonstrated that AI could discover vulnerabilities missed by existing security processes.

The market quickly jumped to the conclusion:

“AI will replace cybersecurity software.”

Now the narrative has flipped almost 180 degrees:

AI is expanding the attack surface, accelerating the evolution of cyber threats and potentially forcing companies to spend even more on cybersecurity. 😂

Of course, IBM’s profit warning is not a verdict on every software company.

Different software categories have very different competitive positions, spending priorities and exposure to AI. Some may be disrupted, while others may become even more essential.

This is also a good reminder that the market is right most of the time—but not at every moment.

Narratives can change quickly. Sometimes the market prices in the wrong conclusion before eventually recognizing the real long-term direction.

That is why we need both technical and fundamental analysis.

Technical analysis helps us filter out most of the noise and identify when price action and capital flows begin confirming a thesis.

Fundamental analysis helps us determine whether the narrative reflects a temporary shift in sentiment—or a genuine long-term change in industry demand.

Price tells us when the market is starting to agree.

Fundamentals help us judge whether it should.

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