Smasher Picks

Australian capper that specialises in NFL and NBA betting.

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

🚨NFL Premium Group Announcement🚨

There will be two packages this season, if you are interested in subscribing, send me a DM.

NFL Premium Bets ($5 AUD a week)
- Includes MLs, Spreads, Totals, and Player Props.

NFL Kick Props ($20 AUD a week)
- Betting on Field Goals, this is my most profitable market.

Kick Props: +41.53u over 19 weeks (14% ROI)
Premium Bets: +31u in 2025 (8.22% ROI)

Kick Prop Plays will come out 12pm AEST the day before the game (10pm EST). Other bets will come out afterwards.

#nfl #Gambling𝕏

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

The Commanders are coming off a 5-12 season where they had the 22nd ranked offense. Some of those struggles can be attributed to QB Jayden Daniels only playing 7 games, but even with him fully healthy I can’t see this offense being anything but a bottom 5 unit. They have a bad receiving core, with Terry McLaurin being the only standout. Their RB1 is JCM, a former 7th round pick who has never been a workhorse back. The O-Line is the biggest concern, ranked as the worst in the league after a season ending injury to LT Laremy Tunsil. They made moves in free agency to sure up the defense, but in a tough division I can’t see a path to 8 wins. I’ve got them at 4-7 wins.

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

NFL Futures Bet #3 for 2026:

Commanders U 7.5 Wins (1.76) 1u (365)

Analysis Below ⬇️

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

The Cleveland Browns went 5-12 last year, and I fully expect regression. Their QB was Shedeur Sanders, who was terrible. Using DVOA (a metric to judge QB efficiency) Sanders had the 5th worst QB season of all time. This year he’s been benched for Deshaun Watson coming off a torn Achilles. In his last season with the Browns, using DVOA, he had the 11th worst QB season of all time. Essentially, the Browns have not only the worst QB play in the NFL, but some of the worst QB play of all time.

They traded their best player, DPOY Myles Garrett, and got back Jared Verse, who is a fine DE, but nowhere near Myles Garrett’s level. They lost breakout LB Devin Bush in Free Agency. They have the 31st ranked O-Line, the worst receiving room in the NFL, and question marks at the RB position. The Offense was ranked 31st last year and they made 0 improvement. Their defense was ranked 14th and they lost their best player. I can’t see them winning more than 4 games.

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

NFL Futures Bet #2 for 2026:

Browns U 5.5 Wins (2.00) 1u (365)

Analysis Below ⬇️

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

Rams finished 12-5 last season, and had the best offseason in the NFL. They traded for DPOY Myles Garrett and CB Trent McDuffie, and signed CB Jaylen Watson. On top of this, DT Aaron Donald is expected to come out of retirement, further boosting their defense. Their defense was already ranked 10th last year, and should comfortably be top 5 this year.

Their offense finished 2025 as the best in the NFL, and is led by MVP QB Matt Stafford. They have 2 elite WRs in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, 2 great RBs in Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, and an offensive line that is young and was ranked top 10 last year.

Sean McVay is one of the best coaches in the NFL, and I can’t see a world where he doesn’t take this team to the 1 seed in the NFC.

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

NFL Futures Bet #1 for 2026:

Rams O 11.5 Wins (1.74) 0.8u (365)
Rams Most Wins in NFL (6.00) 0.2u (365)

Analysis Below ⬇️

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

@CodyBrownBets A betting guide sponsored by a betting company?

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

@ActuaryDataPick

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

@_philonesia @Hynesight7 That would be correct if it wasn’t a head clash

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

@CallingOurShot 5 legs -105 is diabolical man

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

Does Jake Paul know it’s a boxing match and not a UFC Fight?

#paulvjoshua

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

@SST_SPORTS1 @NFL The list itself is the Top 5 passing leaders, which includes Patrick Mahomes. You don’t have to give him a pro bowl vote, but you can’t take him off a list of most passing yards because you don’t like him.

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

Just bench Justin Fields man, he’s so bad at football 😭

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

Josh Giddey In His Last 5 Games:

vs 76ers - 29 PTS, 15 REB, 12 AST, 52.6% FG

vs Knicks - 23 PTS, 12 REB, 12 AST, 52.6% FG

vs Knicks - 32 PTS, 10 REB, 9 AST, 57.1% FG

vs Kings - 20 PTS, 8 REB, 12 AST, 50% FG

vs Hawks - 18 PTS, 13 REB, 5 AST, 50% FG

GIDDEY IS HOOPING!!!
#NBA

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

Giddey with the dime to Vucevic for the game winning three…

Bulls were down 24 points in the 2nd quarter.

#NBA #Bulls

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

@KOT4Q THE BULLS ARE BACK BABY

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

The #Dolphins are trading DE Jaelan Phillips to the Eagles for a 2026 3rd round pick, per @TomPelissero.

The rich get richer…

#NFL

[Smasher Picks @smasherpicks]

Cam Little has broken the NFL record for longest FG, drilling this 68 yarder that was good from 70+

#Jaguars #NFL