smckay44

[George Noble @gnoble79]

We're watching a financial crisis unfold in real time.

The last time funds started blocking investors from getting their money back, Bear Stearns collapsed six months later.

In 2007, BNP Paribas froze €1.6 billion in funds.

Bear Stearns declared 2 funds "essentially worthless" and gated a third.

Everyone said it was "contained."

6 months later the entire financial system nearly went under.

I'm not saying we're there YET...

But I am saying the pattern is rhyming.

BlackRock just capped withdrawals from its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund after investors demanded 9.3% of their shares back - nearly DOUBLE the fund's 5% quarterly limit.

Investors wanted $1.2 billion out. BlackRock gave them $620 million and said no to the rest.

BlackRock stock dropped 7%. KKR, Ares, Apollo, Blue Owl - all down 5-6% on the same day. The financial sector ETF is off 9% in a month.

This is the same BlackRock that just slashed a $25 million private credit loan from 100 to ZERO in 3 months. Full value one quarter. Worthless the next.

And they'd already done the exact same thing months earlier with Renovo Home Partners.

But this isn't just a BlackRock problem.

Look at the dominoes:

Last summer, Tricolor and First Brands went unexpectedly bankrupt. $10-15 billion in combined liabilities. Write-offs hit JPMorgan, UBS, and Jefferies.

Then a UK lender called Market Financial Solutions collapsed with a £2.4 billion loan book.

Fraud allegations. Double-pledged collateral. Barclays exposed for £500 million. Apollo, Elliott, Santander - all caught in the wreckage.

Then Blue Owl permanently halted redemptions. Stock cut in HALF.

Then Blackstone's $82 billion flagship fund got hit with $3.8 billion in redemption requests. They had to pump in $400 million of their own money just to meet demands.

Now BlackRock is literally blocking the exits.

Even Apollo's own CEO warned a shakeout is coming.

When EVERYONE at the top is waving red flags - pay attention.

UBS raised its worst-case default forecast to 15%. Defaults sit at 3-5% today. The trajectory is ugly.

Here's the structural problem:

After 2008, regulations pushed risky lending OUT of banks and INTO private credit.

The sector ballooned to $3 trillion. But these funds make 5-7 year loans while promising investors quarterly liquidity.

That works until everyone wants out at once. Which is exactly what's happening.

40% of sponsor-backed loans are tied to the software industry - the same sector AI is threatening to destroy.

The Fed pumped 40% more money into the system after Covid and kept rates at zero.

That easy money funded garbage underwriting. And now there's a $162 billion maturity wall hitting THIS YEAR.

I've been warning about private credit for weeks. The story is always the same:

Opaque valuations. Illiquid assets. Limited transparency. And the false promise of steady returns with no volatility.

The whole sales pitch was equity-like returns with bond-like stability. But you can't eliminate volatility - you can only HIDE it...

Until you can't.

When the WORLD'S LARGEST ASSET MANAGER starts blocking investors from getting their money back, that's not "noise".

That's an alarm.

Get out before the exit gets more crowded.

[smckay44 @smckay44]

Trump Isn’t Interested in Fighting a New Cold War. He Wants a New Civilizational War. https://t.co/s5jKwQx35m via @NYTOpinion

[The Rest Is Politics US @RestPoliticsUS]

🚨NEW EPISODE🚨

Inside Trump’s ABSURD Great Gatsby Party As Americans GO HUNGRY

Join @KattyKay_ and @Scaramucci as they discuss:

💰 Why a billionaire still resonates with blue-collar America
🪖 Whether Trump could invoke the Insurrection Act
🗳️ What this week’s state elections tell us about 2026

…and much more.

Link to full episode in replies 👇

[smckay44 @smckay44]

https://t.co/DYGcJoRBvZ

[Chris Murphy 🟧 @ChrisMurphyCT]

We aren't on the verge of an authoritarian takeover. We are in the middle of it.

But I worry people don't see the whole scheme. They just pay attention to each new daily outrage. So I went to the Senate floor to explain Trump's plan.

Here's a 🧵of the speech. It's important.

[Ron Filipkowski @RonFilipkowski]

Kristi Noem is mad they wouldn’t let her in to use the restroom in Illinois today.

[smckay44 @smckay44]

https://t.co/0oZXktlonR

[Just saying @kangaroos991]

👇 Well done Scotland! 🤣🤣🤣

[Brian Krassenstein @krassenstein]

BREAKING: This Trump / Epstein statue to honor “friendship month” was mysteriously placed on the national mall.

I love it. Don’t stop talking about Epstein.

[Tara Dublin aka Winona Spyder™️ @taradublinrocks]

The official response from Tylenol is just brutal
😏

[Chris Murphy 🟧 @ChrisMurphyCT]

The Kimmel suspension is a much bigger deal than you know.

It's really about a growing alliance between Trump and the companies that own America's local TV stations - like Nexstar - to turn local TV into Trump propaganda.

1/ Let me tell you the short story. It's chilling.

[Suzie rizzio @Suzierizzo1]

OMG do you actually hear what they’re playing and Trump is saluting them! 😂😂😂

[CALL TO ACTIVISM @CalltoActivism]

🚨NEW: "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert" just dropped its first response to ABC, FCC chair, and Disney firing Jimmy Kimmel.

Trump ain't sleeping tonight. 🤣

This is a must-watch. 🔥

[The Daily Show @TheDailyShow]

An obedient Jon Stewart offers a refresher on the rules of free speech (White House-approved) in the wake of Jimmy Kimmel's suspension

[CALL TO ACTIVISM @CalltoActivism]

🚨BREAKING: Sen. Chris Murphy just delivered one of the most important addresses in modern history.

Trump is exploiting the Charlie Kirk tragedy to weaponize his government against his critics. But what Democrats want to do next will change everything. 👉

Congressional Democrats have unveiled The NOPE Act - the No Politicsl Enemies Act - which would create a firewall so no president can ever weaponize government to punish their enemies.

Murphy: “This was the moment to bring the country together… but Trump and his lieutenants are exploiting tragedy to destroy their political opposition.”

Last night, Trump’s FCC forced a network to yank Jimmy Kimmel off the air — silencing a critic who refused to parrot Trump’s narrative.

“That’s censorship. That’s state speech control. That’s not America,” Murphy declared.

[Bernie Sanders @BernieSanders]

This is what authoritarianism is about: government silencing dissenting voices.

Colbert. Kimmel. $15 billion lawsuit against the New York Times.

Too many people have fought and died to defend freedom. We won’t let Trump take it away.

[Don Winslow @donwinslow]

This is UNBELIEVABLE. WATCH!

House Republicans VOTE NO on a motion to subpoena the Epstein–Maxwell bank records.

They CAMPAIGNED to #MAGA that they would release everything.

They are BLOCKING EVERYTHING.

[Rep. Jason Crow @RepJasonCrow]

I went to war three times.

I served and put my life on the line to protect the free speech rights of my fellow Americans, some of whom I disagree with. That’s who we are as a country.

Trump is now trying to silence critics. That’s not what I fought for.

I won't remain silent.

[CALL TO ACTIVISM @CalltoActivism]

🚨HOLY SHIT. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell just announced the economy under Donald Trump has led to fewer job gains, higher unemployment, higher inflation, AND a lower GDP than Biden: “1.5% down from 2.5% last year."

This is huge embarrassment for Trump.