@zomato@deepigoyal
**URGENT ESCALATION — Order ID 8696402128**
I placed a **prepaid food order around 11 PM** because I was genuinely hungry. The Zomato app showed approximately **30–35 minutes** for delivery, so I expected it around 11:30–11:40 PM. /2
@zomato@deepigoyal Please establish where my prepaid food actually went.
I am requesting a proper investigation and a refund if Zomato cannot establish that the food was actually delivered to me./11
@zomato@deepigoyal@zomatocare
@darvasboxtrader Government don't want citizen to earn, they want to control their income, citizens wants to go up, but government push down from top, & they pull down from bottom..
The cost of financial debauchery just went up.
#USDJPY has steeply appreciated from the July peak of 164 to nearly 155 today. That is not a routine forex movement. It is the funding currency of the last decade getting more expensive in a matter of weeks. On leveraged carry, a 5–6% move in yen is not a dip. It is a margin call without advance notice.
The speed is rather worrying. This is not price discovery. It is the Bank of Japan closing the cheap-money window. The Governor - Ueda has put a hike on the table at every meeting, including 17–18 September, and markets now have a 25 bps move close to fully priced.
Pertinent to ponder:
1. Carry Trade is no longer free. Borrowing yen to own anything anywhere on the planet was the go-to trade without any perceived risk. A 5–6% move in the funding currency, on 8–10x leverage, is a 40–60% hole in the trade before the first margin call.
2. The unwind is mechanical. You do not sell what you like. You sell what still has a residual value so you can buy yen and repay the loan.
3. Emerging Markets are the first collateral. Yen-funded flows into high-yield FX, local bonds and equities reverse as one book - India included.
4. JGBs are the other fuse. Japan’s 10-year has printed 40-year highs. Money that can earn a real yield at home does not need Treasuries or EM equities.
5. September is the signal, not the end. 1.25% is one step. The market will immediately price in the next.
6. If Yen keeps appreciating - 150, then 145 - this becomes a regime. August 5th and 6th 2024 was the rehearsal. Forced covering does not rotate. It liquidates.
7. Global conditions tighten even if the Fed stands still. A dearer yen raises the cost of the leverage that sat underneath ~20 % of risk assets worldwide.
8. “Diversified” was often the same trade. Short yen + long EM + long duration + crowded growth. Correlation goes to one on the reversal of these trades as well.
9. Policy is now 'THE' volatility. A sentence from Ueda can cause panic. There is no floor at 160 or 155 or even 140. The Yen was 50% higher against the USD just 3 years ago. And Uncle Ueda has decided that cheap yen is a problem.
10. The damage is 'THE' lag. Most investors still treat the last five years as normal. Everything was subsidised by Japan, and they have decided to withdraw this subsidy. The tell is in the exchange rate, not the communication.
And lastly........
11. #Gold is still - in everyone's mind - a non-productive investment.
If the Yen keeps appreciating through the 18th Sep, the next phase is forced deleveraging: Japanese capital will fly back home, shorts will be covered, EM reserves will be spent, multiples will compress - because the discount rate rose in the one currency that everyone took for granted and no one was watching.
We may already be inside it (The financial Typhoon while everyone is looking for a Hurricane). These things rarely arrive as a headline. They arrive as a funding currency that stops being free while the assets it financed are still marked as fine.
Hyman Minsky's famous quip is apt for this situation
“Stability is destabilizing.”
The free Yen was the stability.
On a positive note, India has just printed 7.8% GDP growth - among the fastest of the large economies. Domestic momentum is intact, and a funding squeeze in Tokyo is a Japanese problem, not ours. Nothing to worry about, therefore.
Please just keep buying the dip.
#buythedip #JPY #JGB