solid_au

so divine, bird of feather. and the line you crossed, kept us together.

[solid_au @solid_au]

@hayesy316 That is going to leave a mark ... Ouch

[solid_au @solid_au]

@GrayConnolly @SimonSperling He was once almost reasonable as an observer/journo - read a piece written by Fitz about Des Renford; man in the arena speech ... stopped me dead and moved me.

That was probably the last I thought well of Fitz, he has been so sadly diminished since then ...

[solid_au @solid_au]

@hayesy316 drank OG Krating Daeng in Sumbawa 20 yrs ago ... 200mL of something most def not meant for the human body ...

[solid_au @solid_au]

@bouta_nt @barrelracernt you know what they say ... big head, big heart : )

[Robin Dods : Fenton Capital @toy59496]

Small Cap Investing is Dead with a 77% spike in Tax Collection

I have run 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of portfolios of 20 Small Cap Stocks with the New Inflation Corrected CGT model versus the existing 50% CGT discount model.

The results are devastating.

The bottom line is that small caps are highly asymmetric bets where your small number of winners are meant to compensate you for your many losers. Mining companies are a good example of this situation and are a fundamental pillar of our national wealth. However if you tax those few winners at 47% with the trivial relative inflation correction you effectively wipe out the ability to offset your losses. This is because the tax drag on your few multi baggers is so high that it changes the entire logic of the investment process.

It's become a loser's game.

1. ​The Moonshot Tax Penalty:
Because Australian small caps rely heavily on a right-skewed distribution (a few massive winners offsetting many losers), the Indexation framework introduces a devastating tax penalty. For a stock that goes from $50,000 to $400,000, a 3% inflation adjustment on the original $50,000 cost basis is completely negligible. Under Indexation, you forfeit the 50% discount and pay a flat 47% on nearly the entire gain.

2. ​The Turnover Trap:
With a 15% annual turnover, small-cap portfolios realize taxes continuously. Under the current system, every partial sale triggers a flat 23.5% effective tax rate, leaving more money inside the portfolio to compound. Under indexation, those early wins are hit at a full 47% clip, severely dampening the portfolio's forward compounding engine.

3. The Asymmetric Loss Failure: in small-cap investing, a stock can only ever lose 100% of its value, but explosive winners have unlimited compounding upside. The government’s asymmetric tax system completely devastates this dynamic: by replacing the flat 50% CGT discount with inflation-indexing for winners only, it leaves your nominal losses capped and completely unable to counteract the massive tax hike on your multi-baggers. Because a 3% inflation buffer barely dents a 400% moonshot gain, you end up paying a brutal, un-discounted 47% tax rate on the very winners that drive a small-cap portfolio's success, causing a 77% spike in total government tax take overall.

Even in investing we see the socialist government wants us all to be the same. Communists.

(Technical notes: Model executed using Gemini Pro with 1,000 portfolios of 20 stocks each with the volatility and median return typical of this class of small cap stocks over the last 10 years, using a geometric mean process to step forward each portfolio each year).

[solid_au @solid_au]

@AdamCoffeyNT can't move .... digesting : )

[solid_au @solid_au]

@AlaskanCourtney @BuckWilde_ Agreed ... and at the very least they should be accountable for their ruling and the consequences.

We have the same in Aus. A lot of woke lax bonds and bails for repeat offenders ...

[solid_au @solid_au]

@mckinnon_a great journalisming mate ... pretty sure I saw a missive from Andrew Olle like this once ...

[solid_au @solid_au]

@MsMelChen I don't necessarily disagree w/ you, re. Aus drop in self sufficiency, but before you pop off, look at the fractions of oil Aus did produce ... oils ain't oils | Aus = light/naptha vs heavy crude for diesel ... what drives the Aus economy?...

[solid_au @solid_au]

@NtDrifter mate if you can plant a few prosecco grapes sharpish, you're on a winner ... the rest of AgTwitter - not so much

[solid_au @solid_au]

@NorCalDuckz Outstanding ...

[solid_au @solid_au]

@ChefGruel

[solid_au @solid_au]

@CyborgPeds if its this --- then Yes its a buy : )

https://t.co/H2Qp96nSVQ

[solid_au @solid_au]

@CaroDiRusso Hosomaki

[solid_au @solid_au]

@CaroDiRusso He really is the Jim Cramer of Australian politics - as if Bowen coming out and saying no need to panic buy gives anyone any comfort |

Brim'd the tank today after seeing this.
Aus Labor pollies control nothing / will say anything.

[solid_au @solid_au]

@CaroDiRusso Gerald Planet Killer | big unit ... hard worker : )

[solid_au @solid_au]

@grazinggoat66 this dribble from KS is a near perfect 10 on the Sandilands Index: Dumbest gibber for the masses ... many times its fire for effect and sometimes its just brain farts ... we are better than this.

[solid_au @solid_au]

@MCCCANM @TheLegalMindset jail one, scare 1000

[solid_au @solid_au]

@ClaudesBBQ