solider

this year, I lost, I won, I failed, I cried, I laughed - but above all, I learned

[solider @solider0x]

@MEXC_CST Hello, when will the spacex(pre)/usdt spot trading pair be re-launched?

[solider @solider0x]

@SolanaEvents @SolanaEvents Will there be a volunteer application this year?

[solider @solider0x]

@SrPeters 5dAExCn3EYgL41wRRWKeW8qg7166FVfJXyBBao7GjDB6

[solider @solider0x]

@tobific Polymarket fs

[solider @solider0x]

@shahh Or solana long 500x isolated, your choice

[solider @solider0x]

@Loopierr Imagine shitcoin cycle again..

[solider @solider0x]

@Defi_Scribbler $poly will be huge

[solider @solider0x]

Quick review of the $FOGO FDV prediction markets.

I think a lot of the current odds are mispriced because people are anchoring to the HL futures price, which shows Fogo FDV at roughly $1.5-1.6B. Meanwhile, on the "real" spot pre-market, FDV is already sitting at $0.7-0.75B. Honestly, I think even that is overvalued. Between the lack of volume and OI, 41% unlocked at TGE, and the overall weak market conditions, it all points to a pretty bad launch.

Moving to Polymarket:
• $300m market: I think "No" is undervalued here. The real probability feels like 45-50% to me.
• $700m market: Betting "No" is almost a guaranteed win. Real probability is 90-95%.
• $1B+ markets: Not worth touching. The chance for "Yes" is zero, and betting "No" only gets you +10% ROI. The R/R (risk/reward) just isn't there.

My plays:
• Degen play: $300m "No" (great R/R).
• Safe play: $700m "No" (yields +30-35%).