Carlos Augusto

Traveler, Entrepreneur, Artist

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

@JasonPLowery https://t.co/EW9sm440wi

Wow, this guy is amazing. What a find. What advice to you! Nuclear level! 🚀

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

@travelingflying Same with ChatGPT 5.4. Locked into corrupt training data. Corrupted by humans

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

Category error

There's no house

The market is zero sum, for all winning trades there's an equivalent amount of losers (in terms of total notional dollar value)

The odds of winning vs losing can fluctuate into and out of your favor depending on your strategy, skill, discipline, etc.

Overall simplified answer: skill issue

[Sandeep Manudhane @sandeep_PT]

WARNING
Massive AI hype being built in a sudden burst
(and most of it fake)

1) A scary article: I was surprised to read a long article on Twitter (X) claiming it's just 6-12 months before a Covid-like event changes this world. It claims this will be the AI-event, where most white-collar jobs worldwide would be gone, because AI is that good now. That article got 100 M plus views. Clearly, people are spooked (naturally). So the psy-op has worked.
(and I saw other similar dark articles too)

2) Suddenly many influencers are pushing the same narrative, and it so turns out that media reported many are being paid heavy sums by AI firms to push their story (that AI singularity is arriving). But if AI is "revolutionary", does it need an influencer push? No. This should be a clear signal it's hyped.

3) A correction in IT stocks' and SaaS stock's prices is suddenly creating a doom scenario about these companies dying any moment now, with second- and third-order effects on entire economy. Stock investors who haven't studied AI technicals are automatically assuming it's all over, dead, gone, finished. WRONG. NO.

4) What is the truth, and what's most likely to happen?
In my opinion, based on years of observing AI trends, reading and learning AI technology, and doing AI at various levels, my take is as follows. I urge you to read this, and preserve your sanity. Please don't panic, nothing catastrophic is happening anytime soon.

A) IPO pressure: AI firms are going crazy pushing their God-narrative, as many giant IPOs are lined up soon. They need public to buy their paid subscriptions or else the story goes kaput. So they are creating a false hype. It's shameful, anti-social and deeply hurtful.
(Almost all AI firms released doom-scenarios just before their next funding rounds; investors who haven't learnt technology fall for it; pure FOMO. This playbook is so repetitive it's comical)
B) OpenAI is spooked: Sam Altman has lost the lead he temporarily managed to build against Google and others, and now his loss-making enterprise isn't the darling of any investor any more. He's terrified.
C) Elon Musk's Grok does not have the traction in consumer space anyway near what's needed to make it a profit-making entity. So with many other capex-heavy AI firms. But the GPU / TPU hungry AI ops need more capex each day, not less. It's a dead-end for most except cash rich Googles.
D) Enterprise AI is patchy, lagging, slow, choppy: Anyone who has ever built a company, or run a large department, or consulted a business enterprise knows how random, undefined, tacit, and unstructured most of the real world work actually is. No way is AI ever going to replace humans doing those very complex things on a daily basis. No way. Not tomorrow, not in 10 years. NO.
(I am not even beginning to get into 'regulated' industries' needs)
E) Consumer AI is cool, but has limits: The more AI regular humans (of all ages) use, the more the artificiality of it becomes apparent to anyone. The novelty cannot sustain the commercial numbers needed to make AI (foundation models) profitable. OpenAI and Perplexity would never have given free tiers for most Indians otherwise. They desperately need folks to stick to this opium.
F) LLMs aren't solved, Hallucinations aren't zero: The structure of any LLM is such that it will ALWAYS hallucinate, no matter how much fine-tuning humans do. In most sensitive business operations, you cannot allow LLMs to control the core data at all. Can you run an airline with a Generative AI system (LLM-based) that's 98% accurate? Can you run a precision-mfg. operation at 97% accuracy? Can you run a financial services firm with 95% accuracy? NO. NEVER. So the deterministic, old-fashioned computer software ERP will go nowhere. Nowhere at all. LLMs will be good as a top layer on those ERPs to glean insights, nothing more.
[ None can 'train away' hallucinations in a probabilistic LLM model, using larger datasets. You are actually claiming I'll build a dice that lands a 4, or a 6, each time ]
G) Agents aren't magical, humans aren't going anywhere: Multi-step agentic AI is being touted as the final solution where one founder sitting alone can run 100 agents and build an empire. Try doing that once, experience the frequent breakdowns, see the regular edges and new complexities, and you will realize that other than the most mundane of tasks, nothing else will be seamless. Yes, Voice AI agents are good, and many in the developing world are now deploying those, but that's hardly a cutting-edge technology that'll replace all humans.
H) IT and SaaS firms are going nowhere: Ironically, the more AI happens in enterprises, the more will be the need for humans to supervised and orchestrate those bits and pieces of AI, to ensure nothing flies off the rails. The complex software code that Claude and Codex can write only changes the nature of work for the human coders who now have to check the AI code thoroughly for the many edge cases in real world. The nature of IT and SaaS work will change, some companies that can't innovate and adapt will vanish, but many new ones will emerge in their place. (Yes, there'll will be some much-deserved disruption in short-term, and the non-innovating IT firms will have deserved every bit of it)
I) If IT and SaaS are dead, why are AI firms hyping: Ask this simple question - if AI is indeed killing IT and SaaS, then why are AI firms spending massive sums hyping their wares? They need spend nothing and still earn the spoils. But they know the truth.
J) The China angle: Models from China - many of them open-sourced - are getting better and more competitive. Many of them are cheaper, or free (for now). OpenAI complained recently that they are stealing from American models (via "distillation"). Imagine, just imagine - OpenAI that stole entire internet work of creative work is complaining the Chinese are stealing from it. A dacoit crying that thieves broke into his house. Rich. You think these are signs of singularity? Ha! The judicial backlash on stolen content and profiteering off of it hasn't even begun in most jurisdictions.
(now imagine what happens to American LLM-makers when Chinese models gain traction everywhere)
K) Downside of mindless AI already visible: Take just one example: In education everywhere, students, parents and teachers are all realizing that mindless AI use is harming the process of learning, not aiding it. The sensible, guarded and limited way AI should be brought into pedagogy hasn't even been given a proper thought. Students are just doing "cognitive offloading", and turning into non-thinking beings. This is bound to collapse sooner than later. Humans as species don't learn this way - it's a long, tortuous and slow process, always.
L) AI is normal technology: Serious researchers from the AI field have for years argued that AI is being hyped unnecessarily out of proportion, turned into Snake Oil like propositions, and most of AI's predictive powers are anyway not better than that of astrology. AI's ability to talk to use like humans has totally stumped normal people, and anthropomorphism has kicked in. Since no ERP talked to use like a human would, the computer revolution came about without the singularity fears.
M) AI in law and judiciary: The impact will be on the grunt work. It will be cut down substantially. But no judge will outsource their cognition to AI, now will any lawyer. The fact that an LLM can read a complex document fast and summarise it means nothing if it hallucinates. And LLMs will forever hallucinate; that's their structure. (so you'll need humans to sign off on LLM outputs)
N) Enterprise AI's lessons: Every company that has mindlessly gone in on AI has learnt that employees just stopped using it if it didn't adapt to the existing workflows. AI cannot magically alter anything: it can speed things up (with hallucinations), it can generate beautiful stuff (needed or not) and it can help save some time, but the company-to-company needs are so different, it cannot be force-fit on all in one shot. (that is what foundation LLM firms are trying to do). Remember: Enterprise work is not just code. It’s messy data, old legacy systems, compliance needs, multiple integrations, business context, human complexities, and more. Services firms are going nowhere.

O) AI has no solutions for the human situation: Fertility rates everywhere are dropping. Humans are being converted into permanently marketable selves. Consumption comfort has made us soft, and our morality is totally adrift. AI doesn't solve any of this, it just force-multiplies most of it. We built it. It reflects what we are.

5) So what should you do?
a) Read up on AI. Its technical side. How LLMs are created. What they just cannot do. What they can. Why they aren't superhuman at all. Why AI is a good but normal set of technologies.
b) Think why regulated industries (at least 25) cannot hand over their future to AI, LLMs, and GenAI.
c) Check the history of Indian IT and how it kept rebooting itself to suit a new era (from Y2K, to outsourcing, to SaaS backend support, to much more).
d) Check how human societies eventually revolt when artificiality starts overpowering natural human interactions.
e) Be prepared for more hype and nonsense. Sadly, the AI firms won't stop at it at all. They need more humans to subscribe to their paid tiers, and fear seems to be the chosen weapon. Tragic.
[I am subscribed to more than 10 such paid AI tools currently, and know exactly what's good and what's not, and why no singularity is arriving]
f) Adapt your work, and bits of it, to AI tools that can adjust to the workflow well. Let your discretion be supreme.
g) If AI is the shiny new tap, IT is the plumbing behind it.

Remember:
Elon Musk's predictions have mostly gone wrong
Geoffrey Hinton's predictions have gone wrong
Mustafa Suleyman's predictions have gone bust
Yet they keep predicting.

Sad part:
We are living in an age of bullshit. And LLMs are excellent bullshitting machines. The reason the AI Bros are continuing doing so is no one is holding them accountable for their nonstop lies.

But what about AGI:
If AGI is ever built, it won't be by any one company. The technology diffuses rapidly each day. So multiple AGIs in multiple hands. Goes without saying governments will capture (claim) that technology almost immediately. If that day ever arrives, UBI is happening too.

Finally:
Your brain, running on just 20 watts, continues to outthink LLMs fueled by the energy of an entire planet. Never underestimate yourself. And stop falling prey to AI hype.

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

@huang_song_ Will Apple's next update with intelligent Siri totally destroy your app?

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

@thejbullmarket The next parabolic ATH will have all of these going off. That day is coming

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

@hispanicnomad Lived in Floripa for a year. It's great in general but after a year, the fact that there's very few places open late really wore down on me.

There is a great scarcity of late night options

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

The events are correlated through interconnected market mechanisms

Such as a one in a million war survivor and a one in a million cancer survivor being the same person, but the cancer was caused by bombs / fallout in the same war

Still impressive, but not as statistically impossible as you make it out to be

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

@seanvwork @TehranBureau Oh yeah… it's definitely better

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

But the way crypto works..... even if we go up to $180k in a few months, there will be a deviation crash to a low point, like $60k, even if only briefly. Crypto flash crashes to extreme low deviation levels specifically to engineer the giga bounces afterwards.

Why shouldn't it crash once more like this in the next 2 or so months just to dial up negative sentiment to the ultimate max, before ripping upwards?

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

@MikeIppolito_ How about buy big at any macro bottom, sell 75% at any local high, hold the other 25% for years

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

Price cannot grow exponentially forever. Correct. Over time BTC price growth plateaus and enters a different growth regime.

While fees and budgets are calculated against local fiat; there's no failure mode there.

If one day 1 BTC = $10M, the cost to attack it will be the same in fiat, or higher, if there's more nodes on the network.

The opportunity cost will always be the true barrier. Why attack the network instead of buying into low prices? Furthermore attacking the network successfully would destroy it for everyone, including the attacker.

Therefore Bitcoin is immune to financially motivated attacks, and only susceptible to ideological attacks where the goal is complete destruction.

However Bitcoin is divine, it is halal, it is loved by all humanity, it is incorruptible, like the corpse of a beloved saint. There wouldn't even be any group with desire or capability to spend billions to attack Bitcoin simply to destroy it. Even evil people need it.

For most all humans on earth, the risk metric for Bitcoin is, having some % exposure is less risky than none at all.

Your article might only make sense to the few extremely rich humans on earth that have nothing but Bitcoin and need to diversify

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

@PhilakoneCrypto Late January to mid February has never crashed in Bitcoin history when already after a macro bottom, and not right after a massive top.

Few more weeks, maybe a month…

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

Fuck flows. Price action says the 4 year cycle is already dead. Late 2023 the cyclical bull run rocketship took off 300 days early. Nov 2025 the regular 4-year cycle pattern of breaking the previous cycle's all time high worked out for only two months, and Jan - April 2025 massive bear market and altcoin massacres instead of bull run dynamics. Then late 2025, no euphoria, no blow off top, another fake top ended by the greatest hypercrash in crypto history into what looks like the 4-year cyclical bear market crash. This will crash with much less volatility than previous cycles and price action will prove that we are stretching out the cycle and it's mapping to something bigger. Not the halving.

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

@ExodusAssist @exodus is not operating as usual. It's showing fake duplicates for every sent transaction!! Across multiple Exodus installs. Even if Exodus is not hacked, THE UI is ALLOWING A HORRIBLE BUG to manifest!!

Thanks for fixing this immediately!

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

EXODUS SUPPLY CHAIN HACK!!!

@exodus please fix immediately!!

https://t.co/i4ovbFwrmt

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

@ExodusAssist @exodus is not operating as usual. It's showing fake duplicates for every sent transaction!! Across multiple Exodus installs. Even if Exodus is not hacked, THE UI IS ALLOWING A HORRIBLE BUG to manifest!!

Thanks for fixing this immediately!

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

You're deeply mistaken.

100× leverage was created in by BitMEX / Arthur Hayes in 2016. A crypto innovation. The funding fee is also unique to crypto.

Today there's already 1,000× leverage, and even 10,000× has briefly appeared.

Bitcoin's volatilty can decrease by an order of magnitude, and then it'll be as safe to trade 100× as it is to trade 10× today. That could take years.

The market will exist forever. Because no one can stop Bitcoin. It will be there to trade, forever.

Furthermore, I trade hedged. I'm immune to liquidations. Thousands of people will learn this strategy from me and others over the years.

Bitcoin can trade in a 20% range for years and it'll be wildly profitable with big leverage using a hedged vol extraction strategy. And Ethereum / Solana etc coins will fill Bitcoin's place. Another coin will grow along a power law / network effect growth path.

The poor will always have a chance to get rich in crypto.

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

I also depend on a bottom here, a short period of bounce / uptrend, time to sell off the longs, while reloading my shorts.

It's virtually guaranteed to dump again after a bounce period.

However, there is no bear market. That matter remains in uncertainty.

The line in the sand is $74k. That's the market structure. If we maintain that level or a higher low, then resume a strong uptrend while the ISM / business cycle also trends up... We will get a Q1 bull market continuation into a 5 year cycle.

If $74k fails (for more than a weekly wick below) then I agree, full on bear market, and the targets are unclear.

Bitcoin has never failed to create a euphoric blow off top, so perhaps the targets can't be that low. $50-60k bottom probably. No one can know that really.

[Carlos Augusto @solrac149]

@iamfra5er What's wrong with the eastern coast of Iceland???