Manual

[PUNTER IQ @PUNTERIQ]

Years ago the TAB wanted you to win.

Their business was mostly in the “pool” betting system. Like they currently do in Hong Kong.
All bets are placed in the pool, and they take their % cut for “hosting” the pool.

The more times a punter won, the more likely they are to
re-invest. Creating turnover and more turnover means more commissions. TAB would put in ratings like “Read Ratings” in TAB’s to try help you spot a good chance.

Now with more and more online corporate bookmakers their goal is for you to lose confidently.

A way in doing this is paying your favourite ex footy star, radio show host or social media influencer to tip you. This is extremely successful because they are no longer just setting the odds and bet types, they are controlling who you follow. They trade off the trust you have
with that influencer. They make you feel like your “part of the team”, when in fact they are large organisation trying to win your money, but at the same time having you enjoy the experience. They control the entire process, who you “copy”, what products you bet with
and the prices said outcomes are.

It’s actually quite genius for them, but horrible news for the mug punter who has no idea what is going on.

The Multi Obsession
Believe it or not , it wasn’t even racing that started the biggest shift in horse racing betting in modern times. It was the AFL and NRL partnering with bookies in million dollar deals.

What the bookies realised win bets and line bets are fine, but most punters don’t get to excited by them. So we saw the evolution of many leg multis in sports betting. Combining multiple events and outcomes into one ticket that looks more like a lottery win than a sports betting ticket.

This did a few things. It created the multi as we know it today. And by doing so it normalised small odds $1.30, $1.40, $1.50 for an event to occur. People started believing that a series of favourite outcomes combined to equal big odds is better than finding asingular event outcome. This normalisation has trickled into horse racing, where you will see punters take many leg multis on horse outcomes. What most punters don’t understand is the concept of compounding margins.
Each event you “add to bet slip” already a costed in margin for the bookie.

Each time you add a leg you are adding a further margin. Suddenly a 10% edge for the bookie can become
50%+. The chances of a punter finding enough EV with a 50% edge against them makes its near on impossible to win long term, unless they hit a huge amount of luck. It doesn’t mean every singular person will lose, but like the lottery winners, there are not many of them.

The App Algorithm
As previously mentioned bookies are now controlling the algorithm to see who you should “copy”. If someone is winning they can suppress their feed in the apps, if someone is a good loser they can boost them to be front of mind. None of this is chance. This is strategic
planning and execution by the bookies.

The Butterfly Effect (the perfect storm)
These changes have created a butterfly effect. With more punters being influenced by influencers who normally tip favourites, and more copy bets of many leg multis (which usually have favourites as the anchor) we are seeing favoured runners shorten more than
ever. You use to rarely see $1.30 odds, now you can see it every week , multiple times around the country. Bookies know the game is all about EV, and the more people taking $1.30 about $1.80-$2 chances, the better it is for them in the long run. But while it is
creating a negative EV for mugs, it creates opportunity for those who can be patient, seek value and ride low strike rates. Because if a $2 chance is going around $1.5 or less it means there is value somewhere else in the betting market. Maybe a $10 chance is $18, or a $26
chance pays $71 (like Title Fighter- a best bet we tipped at Flemington).

The Great De-Professionalisation: Why the "Dumber" Market is Your Biggest Edge
We are currently witnessing the most aggressive shift in the racing landscape in thirty years.
While most punters are distracted by the flashing lights of new apps, a fundamental restructuring of the market is happening right under their noses.

The game hasn't just changed; it has been completely inverted. But for those paying attention, this is the greatest news possible: The dumber the market becomes, the higher the ceiling for those with a clue.

How We Take Advantage of the New Landscape
The horses haven't changed, a 10% chance to win is still a 10% chance. What has changed
is the price you get.

• Contrarian Indicators: When an influencer pumps a horse and the "dumb money"
crunches it from $4.00 to $2.50, they aren't changing the horse's ability; they are
simply inflating the price of every other runner in the race.

• The "Social" Drift: We want more "copy bets." We want more "multi" hype. Every
dollar placed on a "social lock" is a dollar that distorts the market in our favour, pushing the "Real Value" runners out to prices they should never be.

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[Manual @solseekermob]

@LarkDavis Interesting 🤔

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[Manual @solseekermob]

@PUNTERIQ Definitely have to get The Hot Hand Fallacy out of my punting, great article.

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