spoopy

statistical philanthropy @solcartographr

[spoopy @solsingularity]

The S&P 500 lost 0.1% in July. That headline missed the real story. Chips had their worst month in 25 years, South Korea’s market fell 13% in one session, and refineries closed at ATHs.

One index. Five different markets. Here’s how to read them: https://t.co/p0RmWYEo36

[spoopy @solsingularity]

Tiny accounting thing I always check:

A company says “we bought back $5B of stock.”

Cool.

How much stock-based comp did it issue?

Buybacks can shrink the share count… or just mop up dilution.

Gross buybacks sound great. Net share count tells you what happened.

[spoopy @solsingularity]

The analyst upgrade may not be the first signal.

Recent research found analysts often telegraph future rating changes inside reiteration reports, and sophisticated investors appear to react before the official upgrade/downgrade.

Read the wording, not just the rating.

[spoopy @solsingularity]

A dividend cut isn’t always priced in on day one.

Classic research found firms that OMITTED dividends kept underperforming afterward, while firms initiating dividends continued outperforming.

The announcement can be the start of the repricing, not the end.

[spoopy @solsingularity]

Corporate news released right before holidays historically gets a more favorable market reaction.

The effect shows up across buybacks, earnings, dividends + acquisitions.

[spoopy @solsingularity]

Earnings call game:

Ignore EPS for 5 minutes and listen to HOW management answers.

Research found unusually negative management tone predicts future earnings/uncertainty and the market can take days to fully price it.

The Q&A can matter more than the slides.

[spoopy @solsingularity]

Here’s a signal I’d rather watch than one insider buying:

3 insiders buying.

Research on clustered insider purchases found >2% abnormal returns over the next month.

One executive can have 100 reasons to buy.
Several buying together gets my attention.

[spoopy @solsingularity]

The 52-week high is more useful than people give it credit for.

Research found a stock’s distance from its 52-week high helped predict future returns even after accounting for traditional momentum.

Sometimes “too close to ATH” is exactly what makes it interesting.

[spoopy @solsingularity]

One thing I’d actually backtest:

Take stocks with huge earnings surprises → split them by how many OTHER companies reported that same day.

Research found post-earnings drift is stronger on crowded earnings days.

Same news. Less attention. Slower price discovery.

[spoopy @solsingularity]

Friday earnings are weird.

Research found Friday announcements get a smaller immediate price reaction and lower trading volume (roughly 10% lower abnormal volume), with more of the move showing up later.

Apparently even Wall Street mentally clocks out for the weekend.

[spoopy @solsingularity]

3/3 $BAH - the security layer.

Booz Allen isn’t a nuclear pure play. It sells cyber + tech services, mostly to government.

Q1 FY27 revenue: $2.8B
Backlog: $39B
FY27 revenue guide: $11.2–11.7B

As nuclear infrastructure digitizes, cyber becomes part of the buildout.

[spoopy @solsingularity]

Nuclear investing is more than uranium miners.

The U.S. is targeting 4x nuclear capacity by 2050. If that happens, the bottlenecks may be in the boring stuff: reactor components, waste handling + security.

3 names I’m watching:

$BWXT $PESI $BAH

A small 🧵

[spoopy @solsingularity]

2/3 $PESI - the nuclear-waste bottleneck.

Perma-Fix treats radioactive + mixed waste for DOE, DoD and commercial customers.

Q2 revenue: $12.9M
Treatment backlog: $15.7M (+29% QoQ)

Big catalyst: Hanford waste volumes.

Much smaller company = much higher execution risk.

[spoopy @solsingularity]

1/3 $BWXT - the reactor/components play.

Q2 revenue: $902M (+18% YoY)
2026 revenue guide: $3.8B
Backlog: $8.4B

It already supplies nuclear hardware + services and is expanding commercial capacity.

The catch: a lot of nuclear growth is already priced into the stock.

[spoopy @solsingularity]

One market breadth chart worth keeping on your screen: $RSP / $SPY

Rising = the average S&P 500 stock is beating the mega-caps

Falling = leadership is narrowing back into the giants

A simple way to see whether a rally is broadening or being carried by a few names.

[spoopy @solsingularity]

One stock signal people barely talk about: where the best employees are going.

Talent can leave a weakening company before the financials fully show it and cluster at firms gaining momentum.

Watch hiring, exec departures, employee sentiment + where top engineers are moving.

[spoopy @solsingularity]

One AI framework I keep coming back to: don’t just ask who makes the model, ask what becomes scarce next.

Chips → memory → optics/networking → data centers → power

The bottleneck moves. The winners can too.

[spoopy @solsingularity]

3/3 $NFLX - no longer just a subscription story.

Q2 revenue: $12.56B. Ads are targeting $3B of 2026 revenue.

Next levers: ads, pricing, live events + games.

The catch: streaming is maturing, so upside depends on monetizing its audience better, not just adding subs.

[spoopy @solsingularity]

Everyone is chasing what’s at ATHs. What about the other side?

3 beaten-down names worth researching:

$MCD - franchise + real estate
$UBER - network + AV optionality
$NFLX - streaming + ads

The stocks got hit. The businesses didn’t disappear.

A small 🧵

[spoopy @solsingularity]

2/3 $UBER - the network is the moat.

Q2 revenue: $14.2B (+12%)
Trips: 3.9B (+18%)
Bookings: $58B (+24%)
TTM FCF: >$10B

Next leg = autonomy. Uber wants to be the demand/distribution layer for robotaxis, with partners supplying the vehicles + driving tech.

[spoopy @solsingularity]

1/3 $MCD - the business is bigger than burgers.

95% of 46K restaurants are franchised, so McDonald’s collects rent, royalties + fees.

Q2 systemwide sales: $37B (+5%)
EPS: $3.32 (+6%)

Catch: U.S. comps were only +0.8%. Value + loyalty are the recovery levers.