Wyattrading

ex-commods | sought alpha | Not investment advice

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

@surveillor How do I short this

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

@surveillor Interesting

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

Up 50-80% on $TCEHY, $BABA, $LKNCY since summer. Should I trim positions (which I didn’t do in sep/oct after stimulus talk) or diversify into other Chinese stocks?

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

@MatthijsS6 Do you know how this affects drilling timeline? Esp with namibias restrictions on burning gas?

[Brian Tycangco 鄭彥渊 @BrianTycangco]

$JD -6% after beating 3Q estimates
$BABA -2% (taking the lead from JD)
$BILI -12.6% after delivering on 3Q estimates
$NTES +7.6% after missing rev & EPS estimates

Go figure.

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

@BrianTycangco @AntGroup Do you this a first step to ant/Qiantang being able to underwrite their own loans?
or does it simply mean Qiantang has more autonomy in handling user data/ independently assess creditworthiness?

thanks

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

@BPlas5 @Michael61521180 @coeus12345 @YouTube Doubt it. I think Prelim results from new wells in pel83 should fully come in 25q1. Anyways galp will keep half its stake

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

@BPlas5 @Michael61521180 @coeus12345 @YouTube $sei.v is a good value play with skewed upside- check out the pitch below (a bit outdated so probably needs tweaking). esp given recent selloff, market is underpricing their stakes and carry.

idk enough about $galp

https://t.co/rqtxkC2TjO

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

@Michael61521180 @coeus12345 @YouTube $galp must know something we don’t… changing course on mopane stake sale so late. Still very bullish on $sei.v but I don’t think GOR fears are behind its recent drop- any ideas?

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

@James56487175 @BabyAnteaterInc Fair assumptions- what are your views on GOR (potentially) coming in higher than anticipated & pressuring the upper end of that 30-50 recovery range (or pushing back the timeline by a few years)? $sei.v valuation reflects most bearish case but I still hesitate to go all in

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

@surveillor What’s the $hanbao price target.. considering a value Chinese investment … diversification

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

@sidewinder1901 @surveillor 14 sol deep in $COBY

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

How long before the saudis give up on opec and just focus on war to get their $100 barrel ?

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

@surveillor Jajak surveillor

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

Further evidence of China's growing coffee consumption. #LKNCY well poised for success

https://t.co/wcYLhie5gA via @markets

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

Important to look at China's growing footprint in Braz Coffee #KC. 🇧🇷☕️📈

- "China has jumped from the 20th to 6th largest buyer of Brazilian coffee in just a year"

- "Three years ago, Brazil exported only $80 million worth of coffee to China. Last year, it increased to $280 million."

- Braz accounts for 40% of coffee exports to China

- Luckin Coffee $LKNCY entered MOU to purchase 120K Mt of Braz coffee up to 2026 ($500m)

We see China expanding their presence in Brazil in other #commods too (especially #cotton, #corn, #beans).

Tomorrow I will cover China's COFCO Braz expansion and how this may signal China's shift away from US cotton.

[Ryan Delany @CoffeeNinjaRyan]

#CoffeeMarket Monthly Recap - Jul 2024

#KC rallied to multi-year records 1st half of Jul, from FX support (big #USD selloff) & concerns over the Brazil 24/25 crop. Trend later shifted bearish from a lack of buyers.

See key Jul events for #KC in our animation below.

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

Brief summary of $LKNCY q2 earnings:
-revenues up 35.5% YoY to RMB8.4B
-1,371 new stores opened, total 20,000+
-avg monthly transacting customers up 62% YoY
-OI of 1.05 B, 12.5% margin

-profitability driven by strong digital platform

I expect growth in net income Q3 following this robust customer/store growth.

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

Brief Luckin Coffee $LKNCY Pitch:

1. 103.2% y/y increase in avg monthly transacting customers
2. 20% y/y increase in Chinese coffee cons per capita
3. Chinese consumers prefer Chinese vs foreign (Starbucks, k-coffee)
4. 14%+ y/y store count increase

AND YET STOCK -20% YTD 🤯

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

Sources
https://t.co/CW1HGmdhLR

https://t.co/uVuFB4nxey.

https://t.co/zUnawytU6j(%E2%80%9CLuckin%20Coffee%E2%80%9D%20or%20the,months%20ended%20March%2031%2C%202024%20.&text=Total%20net%20revenues%20in%20the,the%20same%20quarter%20of%202023.

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

Brief Luckin Coffee $LKNCY Pitch:

1. 103.2% y/y increase in avg monthly transacting customers
2. 20% y/y increase in Chinese coffee cons per capita
3. Chinese consumers prefer Chinese vs foreign (Starbucks, k-coffee)
4. 14%+ y/y store count increase

AND YET STOCK -20% YTD 🤯

[Wyattrading @soughtalpha]

Luckin's short-term decline in revenue and profitability foreshadows astronomical growth.

see store count: