๐จ IโM GOING HEAVY TOMORROW ๐จ
Breakout confirmed. Setup is clean.
RT and Iโll send you this ONCE in a lifetime setup.
THIS CAN GO 800%+ like $ARXS
Be ready by 9:25 AM EST. Iโm calling it live.
$PLTR - Stock about to break weekly trendline resistance probably about to do after hours. looking for calls above $146.60 for a move towards $150 and $175. high watch here for upside move. Stock is decent at the indicator level holding well above $130 support level.
๐บ๐ธ California residents who say they support open immigration were asked to sign a pledge housing a migrant in their home.
Absolutely shocking to nobody, almost every single one said no.
The best excuse: "We're in support of people doing it. We just can't do it at the time."
Support for immigration is very popular. Actually housing a migrant? Apparently that's someone else's job.
Source: Natalie Carey
GOOGL reports today after the close.
7 straight beats. Cloud growing 48%. $240 billion in backlog. Stock +118% in 52 weeks.
Street EPS: $2.62
Street Revenue: $106.60B
Alphatica Estimates:
EPS: $2.75
Revenue: $107.50B
OUR CALL: BEAT โ
Alphabet has beaten 7 consecutive quarters, including a +39.8% blowout in Q1 2025 and a +23.7% beat in Q3 2025. This is a company that consistently surprises to the upside, and the Q4 momentum was extraordinary: Search +17%, Cloud +48%, YouTube >$60B annual, backlog +55% QoQ to $240B.
OUR FOUR SIGNALS:
Earnings Quality: 3/6 NEUTRAL. Record $132B net income, $165B OCF, and op margins at 32%. Exceptional by any measure. But the VA reversal is the accounting story; after two years of releasing reserves, management added $2.4B back in FY2025, pushing VA% from 25.6% trough to 29.0%. The confidence that drove the prior release has partially eroded. $25B annual SBC is also elevated at 6.2% of revenue.
Disclosure Signal: BULLISH. Tone locked at -0.007 for four straight years through multiple filing rewrites. Among the most stable and positive readings for any mega-cap. FY2025 10-K rewrote both risk factors and MD&A without any tone deterioration, classic strategic narrative evolution, not a warning. Uncertainty and litigious language both low. Management sentiment is steady.
Prediction Model: BEAT (High Confidence), 7/7 streak. Average surprise ranges from +1% to +40%. Q1 2025 was the biggest beat at +39.8%, driven by Cloud acceleration.
Earnings Risk Signal: ยฑ4.0% NEUTRAL, EVRP at +71.80. ATM IV at 86% vs 14% realized vol. Options pricing a meaningful move but IV spread is neutral; no directional lean. Last PMIE was only 0.54%, GOOGL barely moved on the Q4 beat. Avg PMIE 4.9% with a range up to 10.2%.
WHAT'S PRICED IN:
Cloud at $70B+ run rate with 48% growth and $240B backlog, the AI infrastructure thesis is fully embedded. Search +17% despite the AI Overviews disruption narrative. YouTube crossing $60B. CapEx guided $175-185B for FY2026, the largest capital commitment in corporate history.
The bear case isn't the numbers, it's whether $180B in annual capex generates returns proportional to the investment. CFO specifically noted investors shouldn't draw a direct correlation between CapEx spend and Azure-equivalent revenue. That's the question the market is pricing.
SEASONALITY: Q1 is GOOGL's second-best quarter (#2 ranked). Average report-to-report return +4.94%. But 5-day drift is -0.32%, the initial reaction can be muted even in a strong seasonal quarter.
Numbers should beat. The question is whether Cloud growth sustains the 48% pace or decelerates, and whether $180B in CapEx guidance gets reiterated, raised, or walked back on the call tonight.
Not Investment Advice.
$GOOGL $SPY $QQQ $SPX
๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ท TRUMP: Iran has agreed to let the US collect leftover uranium from inside their country
IRANโS FM: Transferring the enriched uranium abroad is not an option for Iran and is totally rejected
Someone is lyingโฆ