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[Gareth Soloway @GarethSoloway]

Top 5 Things Every Trader Should Be Watching This Week...

1. #NVIDIA $NVDA Earnings Wed (After Market Close)
This stock has become the golden child of the stock market and the risk on environment. Valuation is insane but justified by bulls based on the incredible growth #AI is bringing. Consensus estimates are for $2.07 in earnings on revenue of $11.09B. Whisper numbers put earnings at $2.13.

To justify current price, they will have to blow away the whisper number, likely coming in north of $2.25/share with revenue of $11.50B+. It is possible they do it. I give it 50/50.

With a $1T valuation, this report will be huge for the overall market, especially after $AAPL $MSFT fell sharply on earnings.

2. Jerome Powell's Speech from Jackson Hole on Friday...

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell will be holding the annual huddle in #JacksonHole, WY. With the minutes from last week being extremely hawkish, China's economy in freefall, yields at multi-decade highs, this is his chance to guide the markets into the September Fed meeting. Investors will likely have a great idea of whether the Fed will hike or not by Friday mid-morning. His speech is slated for 10:05am ET.

3. 10 Year Yields....

The 10 year yield knocked on 4.33% this past Thursday. This is a double top from October '22 when it hit the same level. Please note that the #StockMarket was 20% lower. This puts investors in a precarious position if yields breakout. Markets have been pricing in a more dovish Fed for the last year and keep getting disappointed. Now 5 year inflation expectations are north of 2.5%. At some point the markets have to recognize inflation may be stickier than first thought, in which case the Federal Reserve may need to keep rates higher for longer.

Remember, the higher the yield goes, the more money gets coaxed out of stocks for the safety of bonds with a guarantee on the return.

The 2 and 10 yr yields are inching a little closer. While still inverted, note that historically it's when yields un-invert that a recession hits. With the jobs market still super strong, a recession at earliest would be Dec 2023 or first quarter 2024. Watch the yields for an un-inversion as a great signal.

4. Japan...
Most investors don't realize Japan is important to US markets...it is. Japan has had near zero interest rates for the last 40+ years. This made them the biggest buyers of US treasuries. Yes, they hold the most US debt of any country. With inflation finally hitting Japan, they are loosening their yield curve control which may make US debt less attractive. Watch the USD/JPY.

5. China...
The 2nd largest economy is in major trouble. However, because China has authoritarian rule, they can print money at will. This is unlike the United States that has to deal with 2 houses of congress. With major deflation, China has even more leeway to print massive amounts of money to reignite their economy. I would expect some sort of economic stimulus package early this week as they try and stem the panic. US markets should like an epic stimulus package.

Bonus...#Bitcoin
Bitcoin continues to hold above the 25,000 level, its next major technical support. Rumors that something is coming with #Binance have been swelling. As a technician, just watch the 25k level. If it holds, price can retest 28k (resistance). If 25k breaks, 20k will be the next stop.

I continue to hold the view that the only way we see a break of double bottom on $BTC is if the US equity markets collapse 20%+ in the coming 6-12 months. I do think there is a real possibility of that.