Paul Tudor Jones nails it…
We’re facing the most threatening geopolitical situation since WW2, while simultaneously being in the weakest fiscal position in decades.
All while not having a real leader.
Financial Statements MEGA Cheat Sheet
Everyone should know these principles to be successful in business and investing.
I am sharing them all in 1 handy PDF of 12 pages:
An investing gem by Joe Greenblatt!
One of the most comprehensive Investing lectures ever given.
Here are my 6 favorite takeaways from this genius talk:
1. Not "Value" but "Valuation" Investing
Low P/B or low P/S investing is what Morningstar labels Value Investing.
That approach hasn't worked well for quite some time now.
Momentum investing did work well over the last decade. But will it continue? Nobody knows.
But there's one thing that'll always work: Valuation Investing.
Investing based on sound valuation work.
2. Is Outperformance as an Active Investor Still Possible?
There are so many smart people working in finance and asset management.
There are more and more computers and AI systems.
Is active Investing dead?
Simple Answer: From 1997-2000, the S&P 500 doubled.
From 2000-2002, it halved.
From 2002-2007, it doubled.
From 2007-2009, it halved.
From 2009 to today, it multiplied sixfold.
And that's just the index. Individual stocks were even more volatile.
-> People are still crazy. There's still lots of opportunity.
3. Differentiate for Superior Performance
Superior performance comes from differentiation.
The main reason why so many people fail to outperform is because they fish in the same water.
If you only look for S&P 500 stocks, where is the superior performance supposed to come from?
The further you get away from the most famous stocks, the higher the chance for different performance. Yes, also for underperformance.
Buying things right matters more than ever, then.
4. Valuation
Look for "absolute cheap" in combination with "relative cheap."
When assessing the absolute cheapness of a company, Greenblatt focuses on the FCF yield.
FCF Yield: Free Cash Flow (per share) / Market Price (per share)
Only after you've assessed a company "absolute cheap," you can also check for relative cheapness by comparing it to competitors within the industry.
5. Valuation is like Gravity
If you're right with your valuation of the company, the stock price will follow, sooner or later.
If you buy overvalued companies, >99% of them will come down. Only <1% will grow so significantly that you don't lose money on them.
The problem is that people voluntarily look for those opportunities.
They don't want beaten and off-the-path opportunities that are undervalued.
They want Tesla to grow into an enormous valuation and then say:" I told you so!"
And maybe Tesla is the one outlier out of 100.
But why bet on that when there are so many less risky bets out there?
6. The Fallacy of Diversification
The fact that people think you need to own at least 30 stocks shows that they didn't understand the idea of thinking like an owner.
No one would call someone who owns six different businesses in your hometown a speculator.
In the stock market, they do, because they think about pieces of paper and tickers on their screen.
Not about businesses...
Last night, 19-year-old Coco Gauff won her first US Open title.
During her on-court interview, she asked if she could grab the microphone.
At center court, in front of 25k fans, and millions around the world, she thanked her opponent, her family, and her fans.
And then, with a huge enthusiastic smile, she thanked somebody else:
Her haters.
The people who told her she couldn't do it. Who rooted against her. Who told her she wasn't going any farther.
At the very highest level of sports, playing against the very best in the world, the motivator that provided her the edge she needed was thinking of all the people who wanted her to fail.
Instead of asking them to stop, she hopes they continue.
Turning what could be a negative factor that derails you into a tool that gets you to the top of the mountain.
A powerful lesson for many.
@billfariello@GinaMuscato@_Pammy_DS_ I saw NOTLD alone when I was nine (the movie actually came out in ‘68) Crazy double billing with “Wild in the Streets”…
This was before movie ratings were enforced. I guess I was a precocious kid. 🤣