Mike_23

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says the Federal Reserve has officially dropped forward guidance.

[Ash Crypto @AshCrypto]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says the Fed is dropping forward guidance.

That means no more hints about future rate moves. Every decision now comes as a surprise.

[Willy Woo @willywoo]

3 things happen at the end of bear markets.

1) price cleanly breaks the cost basis of recent investors (circles).

2) idle smoking of hopium gives way to rabid clicking of the BUY button chasing the price

3) this raises the cost basis (red line transitions to green)

[Willy Woo @willywoo]

Old school onchain models suggest a BTC bottom between 46k-54k. Also hints at how much time we have to wait.

Orange line correlates to the capital stored in BTC and it has been leaving since November.

CVDD Floor Model has the advantage of climbing over time, 45.5k right now.

[Krzysiek Puternicki @puternickik]

Pan Jackowski póki co, wygrywa nagrodę OSINT 2026 😉

[MartyParty @martypartymusic]

You are here. This is an accumulation to 2032. Ive shared this chart since 2008.

[Charles Edwards @caprioleio]

Incredibly rare and bullish Bitcoin signal is firing. Mayer Multiple, perhaps the oldest Bitcoin model. It rarely hits 0.6x. Can price go lower? yes, but this is historically one of the best buy signals in Bitcoin history.

[Charles Edwards @caprioleio]

Bitcoin heater is firing. Every time it's been this low, we've either seen at least a few days of recovery or a major bottom.

[Charles Edwards @caprioleio]

Long-term holder puking ending? Historically LTH dumping takes about 2 years from peak holdings to price bottom, we just past that today.

[Charles Edwards @caprioleio]

The last time Bitcoin future and options markets were 100% bearish and price was down, FTX was collapsing. It was an incredible long-term opportunity. It's only happened 3 times before, including today.

[Willy Woo @willywoo]

Looks like a whale buyer of Tether Gold is giving us hidden alpha on Gold price moves.

Orange: Gold price
Blue: Oz of gold held by in Tether Gold's treasury

[Willy Woo @willywoo]

I think the entities buying gold (sovereigns, particularly China) have a very long time horizon and it's the right move for a 5-15 year forward facing "end of the long term debt cycle" scenario.

Meanwhile it's really hard to convince sovereigns and fiduciary institutions to buy a nascent asset like BTC with 17 years of history (which is less than a retail home mortgage). Then think about their perspective on quantum uncertainty over the next 5-15 years.

IMO fixing BTC's quantum issue is the single most important thing for BTC development and it's urgent due to the current scale of buyers.

I think the excuse of "it's 20 years away" does not cut it. The investors looking to allocate think in exactly these time horizons. So time to get our ducks in a row.

Where the world is heading into, the world needs BTC for what it was designed for, Gold becomes the fallback that's in a state of readiness (for 6000 years) and they are buying.

But to the question at hand on the shorter term, I'm on the side of a large global macro bear market coming, so yeah, maybe we get a sharp pull back in Gold due to a flight to safety before the safehaven trade resumes. (See the last one: 2008-2012)

My hope is BTC's quantum issue resolves quickly to play a part in the macro geopolitics of our time. It was built for this.

[Mark @markchadwickx]

Every major crypto bull market starts the same way:

Gold runs first.
Then Bitcoin.
Then Alts outperform everything.

2017: Gold +30% → BTC +1,900% → Alts 10x–50x

2021: Gold +40% → BTC +600% → Alts outperformed BTC

Gold is still running.
Crypto hasn’t even started.

We know what happens next.

[Mark @markchadwickx]

Alts are still holding this Massive rising macro trend.

Years of compression. Same outcome every time:

- 2017: +3,000%
- 2020–2021: +2,000%

Stocks already ran.
Gold & Silver at ATH’s.
Crypto hasn’t even started…

This rotation is going to be biblical. HODL.

[Charles Edwards @caprioleio]

Cause for pause. Today is like the 1930s, 1940s, 1970s, 2000s. Over the last 100 years, every time Gold outperformed equities (shown against 200wma where the ratio crosses 0.70 here) the S&P 500 had all of its biggest drawdowns, including the 1930s crash and 2008 financial crisis. In these periods, upside was constrained and in most cases negative. These volatile periods last 5 years on average, and can continue for 10 years! During these periods you basically did not want to own equities. In these same periods, Gold continued to go up massively. Will today be the same?

[tic toc tic @TicTocTick]

See if you go all in at 7000 or 6800, s&p500 may never trade 7000 in next 20 years .

That risk is always there .

This is why i buy 1% on small dips . And 10% on large dips .

3-5% dip is smol dip.

10% dip is good dip.

20% dip is the best .

[Willy Woo @willywoo]

I’m bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026.

This is a data informed opinion which I hold lightly.

Our internal models of investor flows put in a bottom on 24th December and has steadily strengthened. Typically it takes around 2-3 weeks for this to express itself in price, arguably this is taking place now (only held back by very short term overbuying on technical oscillators).

Also promising is that paper based liquidity (futures markets) is coming back in after dying for months, just like it did mid 2021 which lead to a second top in the last cycle.

So 98-100k needs contesting. Then if we get past that it’s a wait and see how ATH resistance fairs.

But I remain bearish 2026 because in the broader picture liquidity flows have been waning relative to price momentum since Jan 2025. We are in the hot zone right now for the final stages when momentum has insufficient supporting liquidity.

What would change my mind would be a massive influx of spot (I.e. longer term) liquidity in coming months to break the waning down trend.

Worth keeping in mind a confirmed a bear market is not yet in place, which would be seen as increasingly negative flows out of BTC (a laggy indicator to a cycle top).

[Willy Woo @willywoo]

Until orange climbs higher into 2026 and starts to weird non-cyclical stuff, this narrative on THE END OF 4 YEAR CYCLES is NOT supported by data.

Flows into the BTC network declining according to past cycles.