Fatté

Meatseeker Co-conspirator

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

My wife left me today. She said it was because I “never stop talking.” I said the yen carry trade is a $20 trillion leveraged bet that the Bank of Japan will never normalize rates and she said “I’m taking the dog.”

Let me explain to you what I was trying to explain to her.

For thirty years Japan ran rates at zero. Zero. Free money. So the entire planet borrowed yen for nothing and bought literally anything with yield. Treasuries, Mexican peso bonds, Nasdaq, your uncle’s crypto. That’s the carry trade. It’s not a strategy. It’s a short volatility position wearing a business casual outfit.

Then in August 2024 the BOJ raised rates 15 basis points. FIFTEEN. And the yen ripped, the Nikkei fell 12% in a day, and the VIX printed 65. That was the tremor. That was the trailer.

She said “you said this last year.” I said YES AND I WAS RIGHT, THE MARKET JUST FORGOT, and she started packing.

Japan’s debt-to-GDP is roughly 250%. The BOJ owns over half the JGB market. They are the market. There’s no price discovery, there’s a guy in Tokyo with a printer and a dream. Every basis point higher on the long end costs them real money on debt they can never actually repay in real terms. So what do you do when you can’t default and you can’t pay? You inflate. You always inflate. It’s the only tool that doesn’t require anyone to vote.

She said “our marriage counselor thinks you have anxiety.” I said your marriage counselor doesn’t know what the 30-year JGB is doing and she said “NOBODY KNOWS WHAT THE 30-YEAR JGB IS DOING, THAT’S THE POINT, PAUL.”

My name isn’t Paul. That’s how far gone we are.

Anyway I’ve got canned goods, a Kagoshima yield curve chart laminated above the bed, and nobody left to explain it to. So it’s you now. Buckle up.

[Fatté @speedge_]

@CitronResearch Enjoy the pen

[Fatté @speedge_]

@assface_burner Who is hedgefund guy and where do I find this write up

[Fatté @speedge_]

@VolSignals

[Fatté @speedge_]

@Glitch_Trades @VolSignals

[Fatté @speedge_]

@Cursor_Ack @assface_burner @liquidoser Lmfao. Does count as trading...if its all paper?? ICP > ICT

[Fatté @speedge_]

@liquidoser @Glitch_Trades How you gonna make a trading platform...then advise not to trade higher vol. Fkn robbinhood traders

[Fatté @speedge_]

@RichieRiiicch @liquidoser We js gettin started😘luh ya RIZZ hagw

[Fatté @speedge_]

@TrentBryde @VolSignals

[Fatté @speedge_]

@liquidoser

[Fatté @speedge_]

@heinous_anuss @TheRomanTrader @OptionsDepth

[Fatté @speedge_]

@VolSignals @Dr_Gingerballs

[Fatté @speedge_]

@heinous_anuss

[Fatté @speedge_]

Chop mood

[Fatté @speedge_]

@AuclairCapital Thanks man one you been sharing seems to be coming along nicely too

[Fatté @speedge_]

@AuclairCapital Come kick it, we do a lil thinkscriptin too 🤙

[Fatté @speedge_]

@AuclairCapital Cheers brudda, lil live rosin over here, happy charting

[liquidose💦 @liquidoser]

Color updates for Cloutseeker™ v.7.8 - Sierra
Added a bunch of colors for you to choose from also negative colors will always be the negative color and vice versa for positive. So theres no bleed between the two.