Mr. Icee U. P. - 2%

Icee Ulysses Panker is my full name.

[Mr. Icee U. P. - 2% @SpeltICUP]

I was about to take a piss and I got irl jumpscared by Five Nights at Freddy’s

[Mr. Icee U. P. - 2% @SpeltICUP]

10 years apparently

[Mr. Icee U. P. - 2% @SpeltICUP]

@WeezyTF2 my day 1 redwood lobby managed to crash the server lol

[Mr. Icee U. P. - 2% @SpeltICUP]

@mustangborb It's also in Girl Next Door, and is pretty much a direct quote of Gaster's theme.

[Mr. Icee U. P. - 2% @SpeltICUP]

@DRgurgen @OrganizerMemes these questions are genuinely so ass

[Mr. Icee U. P. - 2% @SpeltICUP]

@electionsjoe It was (probably still is?) better than Subway. It's not horrible if you don't have a better option in the area.

After moving away from the NYC area, sandwich shop options have gotten far more dire...

[Mr. Icee U. P. - 2% @SpeltICUP]

@classybaryonyx https://t.co/wkQcu5CB81

[Mr. Icee U. P. - 2% @SpeltICUP]

@DanielTexxit @morchel Damn, this reminds me of how great 2012 was for the game. So much iconic stuff.

Though I'd thank Jeb, Dinnerbone, and others from the small team back then, rather than Notch.

It also reminds me how much I don't care for the recent drops. A lot is just copper oxidation lvls lol.

[Mr. Icee U. P. - 2% @SpeltICUP]

@utdrtakes there's only two possibilities for the writer of this post

- child
- chomo

[Dew 🏳️‍⚧️ @DewEnjoyer]

How did you POSSIBLY come to that conclusion?!!

[Mr. Icee U. P. - 2% @SpeltICUP]

I expect the model to keep shifting rightward towards the NYT's estimate as more votes are counted.

[Mr. Icee U. P. - 2% @SpeltICUP]

Only update on this model:
Sorry for lack of pictures.

It is now pointing towards a R+4% win.

Overall I think the model was too sensitive to the early results (which were early votes, skewed democrat)

[Mr. Icee U. P. - 2% @SpeltICUP]

For those interested in the #TN7 special election and the results of it, I have built a model which will (hopefully) accurately predict the final results as they come.

To start, my base prediction for the results is approximately:

🔴 Matt Van Epps : 51% (+4%)
🔵Aftyn Behn : 47%

[Mr. Icee U. P. - 2% @SpeltICUP]

Early on, the model thought Behn could win given early results from Montgomery. When she began losing that county, the prediction began to shift more towards +4 R.

[Mr. Icee U. P. - 2% @SpeltICUP]

If you have any questions about this, please ask! I am still working on making this thing work, and whether the model succeeds or fails, it'll help me build better ones for future elections.

If you're interested, follow. I will be updating the model throughout tomorrow. #TN7

[Mr. Icee U. P. - 2% @SpeltICUP]

For those interested in the #TN7 special election and the results of it, I have built a model which will (hopefully) accurately predict the final results as they come.

To start, my base prediction for the results is approximately:

🔴 Matt Van Epps : 51% (+4%)
🔵Aftyn Behn : 47%

[Mr. Icee U. P. - 2% @SpeltICUP]

However, I have done the occasional test using "biased" multivariate hypergeometric (hence, Republican or Democrat votes are more likely to be counted first). It does skew the model, but only if it is extreme. It will mostly come down to if mail-ins/early vote/e-vote affect this.