Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸

Technologist in Silicon Valley, specializing in digital video and consumer electronics products. Tweets are my own opinions, not my employer's

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

We’re nearly there

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

> destroy the Iranian regime in Tehran.

This is the key.

[Andrew Fox @Mr_Andrew_Fox]

Is there a case to make that Israel is probably now facing a strategic dilemma greater than any they have faced since the decision to go into Gaza in response to October?

We’re 11 months into the conflict on multiple fronts (Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Iran, international media/lawfare). First up, the IDF isn’t designed for wars of this length. It’s designed as almost a raiding army that wins from short, firepower-driven strikes with a huge technological overmatch. This situation is going to be hard to sustain long-term.

The war in Gaza is really just a sideshow at this point. It’s been an overwhelming one-sided blow out. The IDF has total freedom of movement. It just needs to keep blowing tunnels until they’re all unusable then they can select an end state at their leisure. It would be over by now if it weren’t for the hostages. The hostages complicate everything and cause enormous internal pressure on the government, which is showing cracks on the issue.

Everything else is an Iranian proxy or an Iranian ally, or is the Iranian regime themselves. They are playing a much longer game and they’re happy to keep sacrificing proxy soldiers and throwing missiles for as long as it takes for Israel to crack.

They are turning the heat from their proxies up and down at will and forcing Israel to flail around dealing with each escalation in turn. I can’t see a clear strategy here from Israel - it seems entirely reactive as the threat goes up and down in various places. I’m not sure what their other options are, though.

Iran’s plan is designed to strategically exhaust Israel and that’s the biggest threat/risk I see right now.

Hamas’ part of the plan is to keep sacrificing civilians to cause international pressure, and to leverage the hostages to put pressure on Israel’s government.

The remainder of Iran’s proxies are to keep sacrificing soldiers to cause unrest in the West Bank (and create more international pressure on Israel), and keep throwing rockets at Israel (meaning their borders are not secure with 60,000+ people internally displaced for nearly a year). It’s a strategy to grind down Israel until they can be overwhelmed. My fear, right now, is that it’s working.

Calls for a unilateral ceasefire are ludicrous - Israel can’t stop fighting: this is an existential threat. The only way to guarantee a ceasefire is to neuter Iran’s proxies, end Hamas, replace the Palestinian Authority, and find a two-state solution contingent on Palestinians accepting the existence of the state of Israel. Almost impossible. I’ve said all along that this is a war with no achievable political solution.

There is one thing the world can do to take a huge first step towards that far-off political solution, though: destroy the Iranian regime in Tehran and make Qatar into an international pariah for their funding of terrorism and subversive activities in Western countries.

Iran is the biggest destabilising factor in the Gulf. They’re the biggest provider of Russia’s tactical weapons in Ukraine. Deleting the regime from Tehran needs to happen before they are able to place a nuclear umbrella over the Middle East, guaranteeing that peace becomes impossible forever.

Until that happens, if it ever does, Israel cannot possibly agree to a ceasefire. But they need to find some way to create a better strategy - at the moment, it’s all over the place.

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

@ETFCOfficial Please make more use of BlueSky. @ETFCOfficial is the only account that's keeping me on X.

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

@terryrd07 @ETFCOfficial Seconded

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

@ETFCOfficial Looks like a fun movie. I can't wait to see it.

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

@OliLondonTV @TheFlagGuy_ Why do you get pleasure from someone else’s misery?

Have you forgotten how you reacted 4 years ago when you lost? You are pathetic

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

Meh. It’s done.

America, you will get what you asked for.

Unfortunately so will the rest of the world.

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

I'm having a strong feeling of deja vu, like I'm reliving a November night 4 years ago.

This ain't over yet.

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

@realDonaldTrump @TheFlagGuy_ “… and I will piss gold and I will make the sun shine out of my arse”.

You guys are f’ing gullible morons in a cult.

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

@Brian_Kennedy @elonmusk Erm, Trump’s platform is “Put Trump First”.

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

@elonmusk That may be the Republican’s platform, but in reality they practice the complete opposite. How can you say “Personal Liberty” with a straight face when women’s rights are removed? How can you say “Moral Standards” when you separate children from their parents? Hypocrites!

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

@bbcworldservice Typical @BBCNews bias, missing the 1000s of Hezbollah attacks against northern Israel over the last 11 months.

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

@jaredkushner I oppose you and your family’s sycophantic and corrupt politics. I applauded the Abraham Accords and then considered them the catalyst for 10/7, having ignored the Palestinian’s opinion. But this is a well written and hopeful post. Lebanon can be a great neighbor for Israel.

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

:-)

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

@Osint613 Dead man talking

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

@IntrovertProbss Not going to reply

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

@FIRE_THE_FOOL It’s not in decline. He was this rambling and incoherent 10 years ago.

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

@faniaoz If only the haters on this thread showed so much concern for the Israelis hurt or killed by indiscriminate rocket attacks from Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houtis, or by the random deaths from their suicide bombers.

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

@Sassafrass_84 @elonmusk You mean like censoring a woman’s right to do what she wants with her own body?
Like censoring your right to choose who you marry?
Like censoring your right to read a book of your choice?
‘cos that’s all the @GOP.

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

@elonmusk And yet the @GOP ban books.

[Spencer Shanson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸 @spencershanson]

@jeremycorbyn Terrorist shill.