WARNING: Longer post (but worth reading or bookmarking for later).
Your life has seasons.
Each one is unique. Characterized by its own distinct desires, struggles, opportunities, and identity.
But one reflection I've had recently is just how easy it is to completely disassociate with the present season.
To give all your time and energy toward a longing for some nostalgic memory of a prior season or an anticipation for some beautiful state of a future season.
You look back at the past and all you see is sunshine. Because it all worked out. You forget (or glaze over) the struggle you endured. You're here today. You made it. You're alive. You're doing fine.
You look forward at the future and dream on what could be. You'll have so much more. More freedom. More purpose. More health. More deep connection. More everything.
The past is beautiful and the future feels limitless. So, logically, you slowly start to treat everything about the present as the bridge. A dash connecting your past and your future. A gap to be crossed as quickly as possible.
Everything you do today is in anticipation of some eventual end state.
I'm doing this now, so that I can have that later.
Unfortunately, the danger of that dissociation with the present is significant. You may spend your entire life living for a future that has a decidedly mirage-like property. You inch closer, but when it's right in front of you, it disappears and reappears on the horizon.
You may spend your entire life skipping through the present, deferring your presence, your joy, and your very humanity to a future that never comes.
In a classic French fable, a young boy is gifted with a magic ball of golden thread. He's told that if he simply pulls on the thread, time will leap forward. The catch, of course, is that once it's pulled, it can never be put back.
The young boy takes advantage of the newfound powers. Each time he's faced with a boring day at school, a frustrating set of chores, or a scolding from his parents, he pulls the thread, skipping through to the good parts.
As an adult, he continues, leaping through mundane struggles in his marriage, the friction of having a newborn, and the boredom at work. He finds himself pulling on the thread more and more, avoiding even the most minor inconveniences of his life.
But when he wakes up one day and sees an old man looking back at him in the mirror, he's filled with regret. He realizes in that moment that as he chose to skip through the boredom, struggles, and friction, so too did he miss the real texture of being alive.
How often do we all do the same? How easily do we default into this disassociation? Disconnecting from the present in anticipation of some future.
A mentor recently asked me this:
"Where are you going and why are you in such a rush?"
It hit me hard.
And to be honest, I haven't stopped replaying those words since he said them.
Why are you in such a rush?
The world wants you to rush into everything. Rushed decisions. Rushed conversations. Rushed relationships. Rushed timelines.
In doing so, you slowly relinquish your agency. You give up your claim on your own life. Surrender authorship to a pen that was never even yours.
In a world that wants you to rush, the ultimate act of rebellion is presence.
Be in the season you're in. Don't romanticize the past, don't fantasize the future. Be here. Be now. Be in this. All of its texture, depth, and struggle. All of its joy, tension, and pain. Sit with the uncertainty. Become friends with it. Fall in love with it.
Because every single thing you do today is something your younger self dreamed of and something your older self will wish they could go back and do.
The good old days are happening, right now.
And the next time you find yourself skipping through the present, remember these words:
Where are you going and why are you in such a rush?
CYPHERPUNK LEGEND ADAM BACK ABSOLUTELY ENDS THE ARGUMENT AGAINST MICHAEL SAYLOR LIVE ON BLOOMBERG
$MSTR AND $STRC FUD IS BASELESS. THEY ARE SIMPLY "SELLING #BITCOIN TO PAY DIVIDENDS"
"THEY ARE PROVING THEY CAN PAY INVESTORS WITH BTC AND REDUCE THEIR DEBT RATIO"
"THEY ARE TEACHING THE MARKET BTC WILL ONE DAY REPLACE CASH"
STRATEGY IS NOT GOING TO ZERO 🔥
The only investing strategy that you need for the next 10 years.
Bookmark this!
Follow the Top private valuations and invest in those disruptive industries.
SpaceX, Neuralink, OpenAI, Anduril, Anthropic.
They're pouring billions into these 6 disruptive tech themes:
Space
AI Infrastructure
AI Tech Platforms
Defense tech
Robotics
AI energy.
Capital builds first. Markets follow later.
Build your portfolio around the industries and build generational wealth.
Your kids will thank you.
$IBIT is the only ETF on the 2025 Flow Leaderboard with a negative return for the year. CT's knee-jerk reaction is to whine about the return but the real takeaway is that is was 6th place DESPITE the negative return (Boomers putting on a HODL clinic). Even took in more than $GLD which was up 64%. That's a really good sign long term IMO. If you can do $25b in bad year imagine the flow potential in good year.
🚨 Billionaire investor Ron Baron explains the silent math destroying your wealth.
Your money loses 4 to 5% of its purchasing power every single year. The economy grinds higher at roughly 2%. That is a relentless 7% headwind against you, annually.
What that really means. Prices double every 10 to 12 years. Your savings are cut in half in real terms within about 15 years. Cash sitting idle is not safe, it is decaying.
The system is structurally engineered to punish savers and force capital into risk just to survive.
Indications of EU fragmentation grow.
(Gold as proxy for EU deterioration,
Growing dissent among euro nations on gold treatment.)
Italy’s renewed push to assert state ownership over its gold reserves has triggered formal objections from the European Central Bank, which argues that such actions undermine national central bank independence. The dispute exposes a deeper tension embedded in the euro system: control over national gold was already centralized years ago under ECB rules and coordinated agreements, raising questions about what “autonomy” now actually means.
We’ve been watching this unfold for years.. starting with the Basel 3 reorganization of gold treatment in EU. and now, Meloni is implicitly saying: dear ECB, in case you have any ideas… Italy’s gold is Italy’s, not Europe’s.
@GiorgiaMeloni@TFL1728 the intersection of market structure and EU politics.. in our wheel house.. LOL
@APompliano Wise man once said:
For every seller, there’s a buyer to transact, they’re always in balance.
It’s the one with fomo or fear that moves the market.
If you had a bot that simply bought BTC and ETH at times of extreme fear and sold at times of extreme greed with the goal of increasing your BTC and ETH stack over decades you could ignore 99% of the trading advice on this app and logoff
On Energy and AI:
We are all aware of the urgent need for massive new energy infrastructure for data centres and other general needs. The grid is old and the supply is constrained.
Investor capital is pouring into nuclear soluations, new gas plants and other opportunities and the bottleneck will be better solved in 5 years+
However, the need for the extra energy is URGENT and IMMEDIATE...
The AI race is the most important technology race that will ever occur. It is not just about hyperscalers and their profits, but about the game of nations.
There is only one energy solution that can hyperscale in 12 to 24 months and that is solar. China has shown this by adding more than the total amount of energy created by Solar elsewhere globally, in one year. The rise of solar in China is one of the great exponentials. China knows the game here. Everyone else has to play catch up.
The Kardashev Scale is the correct way to think about this. The sun is 99.9% of the mass of the solar system and we are harnessing <1% of its energy that hits earth.
1 sq mile on the earths surface receives 2.5 gigawatts of solar energy. Yes, solar panel efficiency is low and usable daylight hours is restricted but the amount of solar panels required in relative terms of the surface size is small.
Solar is not yet perfect as the supply of energy is intermittant (nights/bad weather etc) and efficiency is low (but rising as tech improves) but costs are collapsing exponentially, even taking into account panel replacements and no subsidies (it doesnt require them).
Some of the issues are offset by batteries which currently solve for 4 hours of extra storage. Tesla's Megapacks are growing at 50% to 70% per year and other players are also scaling fast. Battery tech will only imporve from here too.
Just the use of solar + batteries reduces demand on the exisiting grid by upto 65% (you only need to use the grid load for perdiods of time). This helps massively in this rapid scaling to avoid an overload of the grid. Solar + batteries also allows for localised, decentralised energy grids for specifc use - factories, datacenters, etc.
The load on the grid will be reduced after 2 years or so when new localised gas plants are built to balance the loads. Gas plants are the cheapest, cleanest and fastest of the fossil fuel solutions but it takes longer to scale than solar and requires a lot of gas pipelines.
Weirdly, solar seems to be politicised, but its going to become an economic imperative as nothing else can solve the needs of the massive data centers in the next 1 to 2 years, and no one can afford to be leftr behind in the race to AGI and beyond.
AI is the most important technology humanity will ever develop as it replaces us as the apex intelligence on earth and is vastly more energy efficient than humans at compute/intellgence output.
The core metric for the universe itself is:
Intelligence per unit of energy
For this to scale exponentially, AI will replace humans as the primary source of intelligence and the sun's energy is most of the energy on earth. Even oil is just biologically-stored sun energy with finite supply.
In terms of investability, there are two opportunities that stand out as long-term plays:
The Solar ETF TAN is down 84% from its high, has formed a perfect base on both the log chart and the regular chart.
TSLA is the other obvious play as it dominates the large battery sector and batteries account for 10% of total revenues and are growing rapidly and will continue to do so. The Tesla chart is one of the best in the Exponential Age.
Anyway, I know because solar is politicised that people will rush to fight in the comments but don't bother unless you can solve the urgent energy needs for AI in the next 1 to 2 years by any other method.... you can't.
And yes, dear troll, we all understand that there are lithium, copper and other needs, and yes, there will be an investible bull market in those too (amongst other major commodities) as the business cycle and the Capex cycle heats up... and yes, there will be supply issues if you havent carefully planned/hedged.
But you need to warm up to solar... its going to get hot.
(Time horizon is now and for the next 5 years+).
GOLD EXIT LIQUIDITY in SYDNEY, Australia
As promised , this is a video to show you the madness. Hundreds of people in line to buy gold , priced in at 4300$ per ounce
This is by far the best top signal i have seen in my humble career.
Enjoy
#gold#bitcoin#crypto#trading $BTC $ETH
I can see all of Fintwit back to hurling insults at each other again, so I figured I’d share my view and try to be a voice of reason, even if I end up being wrong.
It’s my job to stick my neck out. I’ve been doing it for years, and I’m still here.
For what it’s worth, I think Bitcoin is forming another broadening wedge pattern, which is typically a bullish setup (chart 1).
We’ve seen plenty of these in the past, and right now we’re testing the lower boundary of support.
Another thing to note is that this bull market is officially 2 standard deviations oversold on the log regression channel (chart 2).
Unless the bull market is over, which is not our view, these levels are about as good an opportunity as you’re going to get to add to this market.
Also worth pointing out, Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands have only been this tight three other times in its entire history (chart 3)…
What does that mean?
We’re in a mega low-vol environment…
Right now, the bands are as tight as they were in September 2023, just before a 200% rally.
That move lasted from September through March 2024, with a 20% correction in January before prices rallied another 90%.
The next chart shows the last three times Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bandwidth was less than or equal to 22, along with the forward twelve-month returns (chart 4).
The sample size is small, but the results have been extremely positive…
It’s the classic beach-ball-underwater dynamic. The harder you push it down, the more explosive the move when it finally breaks free.
All in all, we need to do better when times are tough. It’s not just your hopes and dreams caught up in this trade, it’s ours too. Fintwit can be powerful when you follow the right people who are genuinely trying to help. We’re not gurus, but we’ve been doing this a long time, built comprehensive frameworks, and we’re doing our best to share what we’ve learned.
At the same time, there’s a ton of poison and hate out there. Avoid it. When times get rough, we should rally around each other and stay focused on the big picture.
This is a 70-vol asset. If you can’t handle that level of volatility, this asset class might not be for you. If you don’t believe in crypto and the life-changing tech it brings, it’s hard to stomach the swings.
The only way to survive this kind of volatility is to extend your time horizon. When you think in days or weeks, every move feels like life or death. When you think in months or years, it all fades into noise.
Once you stop fighting volatility and start embracing it as a feature of this space, everything changes. Volatility turns into opportunity. It’s a gift that lets you add to your conviction.
Our view remains that Q4, once the dust settles, will be bullish, and we’ve done a ton of work to support that view.
That’s the best I can leave you with on days like this.
Good luck out there…
“Wealth isn’t gold… wealth is energy.” - Buckminster Fuller, 1967
“That is why Bitcoin is based on energy: you can issue fake fiat currency, and every government in history has done so, but it is impossible to fake energy.” - @elonmusk, 2025