Splitrule

Independent prediction market research. Compare normalized live prices + odds, fees, and contract rules across every venue (yes, every). Launching Q4 '26.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

The current Splitrule app will go offline soon as we transition services for v2.

Coming: significantly expanded PM + sportsbook unified market coverage, normalized fees and rules, and more. Completely free.

Targeting later in Q4. Field Notes research will stay live.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

PolyMap on Polymarket US puts seven Senate picks into one trade.

Both scenarios here give Democrats a majority. The original Yes contract settles at $1 in one and $0 in the other, with the difference being Maine.

From @Polymarket, spotted via @primo_data.

https://t.co/nBIdQzFoPW

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

No new Fed rate projections today. The statement arrives at 2 p.m. ET, followed by the press conference at 2:30.

We're watching whether December’s hike contract gains or loses ground through those announcements.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

If the Fed holds today, watch December.

Polymarket US asks at 10:47 a.m. ET are at 95¢ for unchanged rates today, 76¢ for a quarter-point hike in December.

Today’s guidance can move that contract even if rates stay unchanged.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

Both books showed a 1¢ spread. Offers at the best ask totaled about $99,500 for October’s hold and $2,400 for December’s hike.

The same spread can sit above very different amounts available at that price.

[Sam Schwartz @samschwartz71]

Yet another record-breaking weekend.

@Kalshi set its single-day volume record on Saturday at $5.3B, @Polymarket (US + DeFi) set its record on Sunday at $1.1B, and @DraftKings (DKeX), @Novig, and @Underdog (UDX) all set theirs on Sunday too.

@Kalshi ranks No. 1 and @Polymarket ranks No. 2 no matter how you look at the data. Below them, the order shifts depending on whether combos are included.

Total matched contracts, last 7 days:
3) @DraftKings (DKeX) ($1.4B)
4) @Novig ($833M)
5) @cryptocom ($565M)
6) @Underdog (UDX) ($553M)
7) @RotheraMarkets ($315M)

Total matched contracts excluding combos, last 7 days:
3) @Novig ($413M)
4) @cryptocom ($340M)
5) @RotheraMarkets ($315M)
6) @DraftKings (DKeX) ($300M)
7) @Underdog (UDX) ($119M)

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

@mansourtarek_ Great news!

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

@Polymarket Kalshi’s headliner market has already resolved Yes on the announcement. Polymarket’s performance market is still open because Jay-Z has to perform live and in person at halftime for that one to resolve Yes.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

The rivalry between @Kalshi and @Polymarket goes deeper than volume. More exchanges and service providers are joining the race to power the apps people trade through.

Our latest Field Notes maps the distribution race and the infrastructure behind it:

https://t.co/nm3PnqcgWO

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

@Kalshi The cross-venue comparison is interesting here, Newsom is around 15% on both but AOC is 14% on Kalshi and 17.1% on Polymarket, where she leads. Most of the difference in who’s favorite comes from AOC’s pricing.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

@Polymarket The coalition talks matter as much as Tuesday’s vote here. If another election is called before a PM takes office, Polymarket US carries the market forward. Kalshi’s equivalent resolves every named candidate No. Similar headlines, different exposure to a political deadlock.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

I (and think everyone should) use both. Polls measure voter preferences and markets put a price on the eventual outcome including turnout and polling error. Traders also read the polls so agreement between them isn’t independent confirmation. It does make any divergence more interesting though!

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

The rule uses the mark updates immediately before and after expiry.

In this example, 99,900 + (1/3 x 300) = 100,000. Equality counts as Yes.

https://t.co/4jb4lcLOjI

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

A BTC mark update after expiry can help decide the payout on @HyperliquidX.

Example: $99,900 one second before, $100,200 two seconds after.

Its recurring BTC rule interpolates to $100,000 at expiry. A $100,000 target settles Yes.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

@rajivatbarnard @nextpredictio @chucktodd @geoffreyvs @PredictIt The DD experiment mentioned here is the bit I'd love to see more on. Comparing the model with and without market prices would help show what the market adds beyond the other inputs

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

@TrendScalezz @Kalshi @Polymarket I wouldn’t marry either one. I’d compare the price for my actual size, fees, and what counts as a win. The better deal can switch with the market 😁

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

@StarkWareLtd @OffMarketcx @SuperVegaXYZ Predicting something will happen isn't the same thing as wanting it to happen. That's a pretty compelling reason to let people keep their positions private!

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

The memo is broader than prediction markets. It covers classified and unclassified nonpublic info and applies to all financial platforms (with Polymarket and Kalshi named as examples). Polymarket had already referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ according to Reuters.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

At the snapshot, 179 Yes shares were offered at 98.3¢ ($175.96 total). Both Yes proposals were challenged and settlement remains pending.

https://t.co/akqiC9oAkk

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

Yesterday’s deadline. Two disputed Yes proposals. Still trading.

Polymarket’s Oct 22 US-Iran ceasefire contract has a 98.3¢ Yes ask while awaiting final review.

Traders are pricing how a past event gets resolved and when holders get paid.