Evolution in the stock market via economic selection:
1) 1930/40s - discount-to-hard-book-value strategy
2) 1950s - dividend model
3) 1960s - earnings growth
4) 1980s - cash flow models over earnings model
5) Recent times - Cash Return on Invested Capital
Crazy!
I've nothing personal against Shamika Ravi. But saying poverty has almost been eradicated in India and justifying all economic disasters is not expected from Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council.
I don't know how many of you remember Montek Singh Ahluwalia. He was in a similar position in the previous governments. He never used to dress up anything. He was always factual and tried his best to find workable solutions. As a technocrat, his communications were never political.
We need people who acknowledge problems and then work towards addressing them.
Superforecasting by Phillip Tetlock is a superb book which I had read on this topic almost a decade back. Thanks to @Sanjay__Bakshi who had recommended it. Thereafter never bothered to look at macro forecast.
Ridham Desai is a senior leader in a big firm. I am sure he has a high paying job and his Bonus component would be hefty too. His articulation is really good, English vocabulary is leagues ahead of many non-Elite-school average Indians like us.
But none of this gives him the right to throw random numbers at people. I made a collage of his/MS’s earlier predictions. How can you keep making such random claims and yet, get away?
How does Morgan Stanley allow this to happen?
Met the oldest investor in Infosys yesterday. Uncle is 96 years old. Invested in Infosys during the 1993 IPO. Did SIPs of Rs 1000 from his salary (he was an SRCC professor). Holds till today.
It may shock some, but just the IPO investments in Infosys would be up 1400x (via multiple bonus, splits and stock price rise). I am sitting with him reviewing his portfolio (his daughter being the guardian). Infosys is more than half his portfolio - classic concentration risk that any wealth advisor would know.
I softly ask uncle - are you emotional about your Infosys shares? He replies "no", then repeats (4th time) stories how he bought XYZ shares at few rupees. Then after some pause says - I love Infosys shares.
How do I talk AI with him! I skip.
Tell his daughter - we would review and come back soon. Enjoy the tea and leave with this picture.
How many of you have ever heard of Manhattan Fund by Gerald Tsai?
There seems to be some similarities between that fund and a PMS in India which had gathered quite a bit of AUM!
History definitely rhymes!
China’s asset management industry has proved challenging for foreign businesses amid intense domestic competition on fees…
Schroders plans to exit China mutual funds business after just three years (Financial Times Asia), 16 May 2026
https://t.co/LezIWFlQLP
LVMH first bought a stake in Marc Jacobs in 1997.
LVMH agrees sale of Marc Jacobs label to WHP (Financial Times Asia), 16 May 2026
https://t.co/VS68sm2kUn
Skincare too has evergreen demand?
Botox demand fails to sag as squeezed consumers prioritise skin treatments (Financial Times Asia), 16 May 2026
https://t.co/r2UB1m17qM
In the first nine months, 74 per cent of android revenue came from research and education orders, 13 per cent from consumer customers and 9 per cent from industrial demand.
Unitree IPO to test appetite for humanoid robots (Financial Times Asia)
https://t.co/YROzvTejft
The room costs Rs4000 a month,while Qureshi’s mother earns Rs11000 working 12-hr shifts packing clothes in a nearby factory.Since the war,they can no longer afford to cook with gas & use wood instead
India’s migrant workers return home as fuel price jump
https://t.co/olcvt5I92w
Each $1 increase in the oil price means an extra $1bn of free cash flow for Saudi Aramco, which has added $144bn in market value during the war, despite missile and drone attacks on its oilfields and refineries…
https://t.co/neqSOJpNMA
Coal is back in demand!
‘Freight rates from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of coal, have risen by 60 to 75 per cent on average in May compared to Feb’
Coal shipments jump as countries seek alternative fuels (Financial Times Asia), 12 May 2026
https://t.co/OzCL6UvQw1
Sony strikes near-$4bn deal to buy Blackstone’s portfolio of music rights (Financial Times Asia), 12 May 2026
Interesting M&A going on in the music industry! https://t.co/ei2FpnObWc