Srikanth Thangellamudi

Individual Investor

[Srikanth Thangellamudi @sri795500]

The Physics of Winter Restocking of Met Coal
https://t.co/88JRTqzg6h
#CokingCoal #MetCoal #CoalMarkets #SeaborneCoal #CommodityTrading #GlobalMacro #SteelIndustry #EnergyMarkets #EquityResearch #AlphaMetallurgicalResources #WarriorMetCoal #CoreNaturalResources

[Srikanth Thangellamudi @sri795500]

The Post-Monsoon Coking Coal Import Squeeze in India https://t.co/y8ZWBY3rdW
BINGO ..💥

[Srikanth Thangellamudi @sri795500]

Class Actions, Carbochlorination, and Coal: What Is Ramaco Really Worth? https://t.co/YzflzOjUb6
#RamacoResources #METC #ValueInvesting #CriticalMinerals #RareEarths #Gallium #BrookMine #StockAnalysis #Investing #CoalMining

[Srikanth Thangellamudi @sri795500]

The Post-Monsoon Coking Coal Import Squeeze in India https://t.co/y8ZWBY2Too

#CokingCoal #MetallurgicalCoal #IndiaSteel #CoalMarkets #SeaborneCoal #CommodityTrading #SteelIndustry #EnergyMarkets #CoalEquities #PostMonsoonSqueeze

[Srikanth Thangellamudi @sri795500]

Australia exports 147 million tons of coal a year.
The U.S. ships just 45 million.
On paper, Goliath wins every time.
Yet steel mills are walking away from Australian ports and paying heavy freight to drag American coal across the Pacific.
Tonnage creates headlines, but balance sheet fortresses win the war.
https://t.co/PxtKn81lmA

[Srikanth Thangellamudi @sri795500]

The Shanxi Trap: How a Chinese Supply Rebound Sparked a Paper Panic on Wall Street
The two percent physical spot market might wag the paper dragon when Australian benchmark coal dips to 281.50 dollars per tonne, but low-cost producers like Alpha, Warrior, and Core continue to generate 20 to 29 percent free cash flow yields on debt-free balance sheets.
Paper prices fluctuate on headlines, but real-world cash continues to accumulate in the ledger.
https://t.co/QJeiPgpHsV

[Srikanth Thangellamudi @sri795500]

https://t.co/9avaHCY4hY
Water levels on Indonesia's primary barging river just collapsed to a 29-year low, locking export tonnage inland until mid-November.
Meanwhile, European natural gas spiked to 26 dollars per MMBtu, handing global thermal coal an unshakeable 148 dollar price floor.

[Srikanth Thangellamudi @sri795500]

The Monster Below Alabama
Building a world-class underground mine usually means taking on massive debt, suffering years of delays, and diluting shareholders.
Warrior Met Coal just did the complete opposite.
They brought Blue Creek online eight months ahead of schedule, completely on budget, and funded the entire 957 million dollar development out of operating cash flow without taking on a single dollar of debt.
The result?
An 88 percent expansion in production capacity and a first-quartile cash mining cost of 92.53 dollars per short ton.
https://t.co/X9sin9KRjC

[Srikanth Thangellamudi @sri795500]

Squeezed Between India and China
An 85,000-tonne Peak Downs cargo bound for India was hijacked mid-ocean to China at over $280/t.
My tracking of physical port logs shows U.S. coking coal is being pulled into two Asian growth engines at once. Here is my full deep dive on the $67 pricing gap and U.S. cash flows. 👇
https://t.co/OmMGi3aWAj

[Srikanth Thangellamudi @sri795500]

The Coal Sector's Ultimate Trojan Horse

A massive bulk carrier is steaming across the Indian Ocean, bound for India.
Midway through the voyage, the captain gets a priority message. The destination has changed. Turn north. Head to China immediately.
A Chinese buyer just poached the entire ship right on the water, bidding an astronomical 280 dollars per tonne.
While Wall Street is busy looking at lagging, backward-looking screen indexes, a physical supply crisis has quietly slammed every single escape hatch shut on global steelmakers.
But the biggest shock is not the poached vessel.
It is the massive valuation blind spot it exposes right here in the U.S. market.
One quiet Appalachian producer is currently locking in historic 96.90 dollar per short ton cash margins on a peer-leading 88.50 dollar mining cost.
Yet, its stock just pulled back.
https://t.co/bhOS0ySbpa

[Srikanth Thangellamudi @sri795500]

@MohnishPabrai Excellent as always! Perfect timing too.. A wounded person will seek wisdom more than a euphoric person! I wish more and more people in Korea watch this conversation from Mohnish!

[Srikanth Thangellamudi @sri795500]

The Industrial "Salt" of the Modern World: Unsexy. Indispensable. Ridiculously cheap https://t.co/NzqoGNjGiH
The Decarbonization Irony
The ultimate irony of green steel: closing old coke batteries is permanently choking the global supply of raw coal tar, while the rise of scrap-recycling electric furnaces is driving demand for its derivatives through the roof.
One global champion dominates this structural squeeze.
It is currently valued at 15% free cash flow yield.

[Srikanth Thangellamudi @sri795500]

The Industrial "Salt" of the Modern World: Unsexy. Indispensable. Ridiculously cheap https://t.co/NzqoGNj8t9
Every met coal investor tracks the solid coke lump.
Almost nobody tracks the smoke.
But inside that volatile coking oven exhaust sits a liquid byproduct that holds an absolute global monopoly over the aluminium industry.
This irreplaceable toll booth is trading at just 3.5x run-rate operating cash profit.

[Srikanth Thangellamudi @sri795500]

The Iron Vice: How a Quiet Supply Shock is Handing U.S. Coal Peak-Cycle Cash ?
A coal cargo to India was just poached mid-ocean by China for >$280/t.
Consensus calls this met coal rally a blip, but a multi-basin crunch has U.S. miners printing peak-cycle cash:
• $HCC: $1.34B FCF • $CNR: $980M FCF • $AMR: $120M–$250M
Full deep dive 👇
https://t.co/NlKTg1r5M3

[Srikanth Thangellamudi @sri795500]

The Domino Squeeze: Why China's Supply Shock is Printing Millions for U.S. Coal?
The global met coal market is quietly tightening into a multi-origin supply crunch. 🔥
China’s Shanxi mine caps, Russian PCI shortages, and an untimely U.S. mine fire are driving a transatlantic squeeze, pushing U.S. exporters toward peak-cycle cash generation:
The catch?
Steelmaker margins are flatlined.
If blast furnaces bank in September, this rally faces a wall.
Read our full paid deep dive & equity models: 👇
https://t.co/bn6F0zoFcF

#MetCoal #CokingCoal #EnergyTrading #CommodityMarkets

[Srikanth Thangellamudi @sri795500]

@suzannebernert I cried with him! Can't even imagine, what the family members are going through for their loved ones. 🥹

[Srikanth Thangellamudi @sri795500]

@MohnishPabrai Love itt