manohar

[manohar @sriee_m]

@SpillingTheBean
@AlbFerracuti
@Thuttu4

The indonesia wildfirew goes from bad ro worse even filling singapore with toxic fumes.

https://t.co/9O1jUSXsjP

[manohar @sriee_m]

@AlbFerracuti @AlbFerracuti right now there seems to be a real desperation to force out coffee beans from brazilian farmers.
All data sources being strangled out?
What is really going on ?
Why this scale of desperation?
Is there something really awfull waiting to happen in peru ?

[manohar @sriee_m]

There has been a recent major update maja
Indian Ocean dipole has turned positive it's close to +1°C (0.93°C) this further increases drought well into October and it's effects easing only in November this is truly disastrous to west sumatra, java and lampung. Super el nino
A positive iod is going to turn indonesia into a furnace they are heading to record rainfall deficit very much likely.

[manohar @sriee_m]

@SpillingTheBean @SpillingTheBean after the unprecedented rains in Brazil triggering severr quality loss and cup score more high quality arabica production is getting effected.

[manohar @sriee_m]

@SpillingTheBean since the horrific events of 2023-2024 el nino farmers in Vietnam in search of water have coffee farms closer to streams and rivers in years of el nino torrential rains can trigger localised flooding as seen above washing away critical nutrients for the plants and depositing sand leading to poor yields 2015-2016 el nino triggered severe salt water intrusion to effecting rice yields.
What suprises does the current super el nino hold
Expected to last well in first half of 2027.

[manohar @sriee_m]

@SpillingTheBean the rains are going to be uneven with below normal rains indonesia goverment and BMKG both expect rainfall to be well below normal some parts to be stuck under severe drought conditions up until November 1st week, specifically southern indonesia and robusta belt to experience severe drought conditions due to ongoing super el nino.

[manohar @sriee_m]

After prolonged drought intense heat waves and heat domes water stress has finally wrecked havoc on
Indonesia farms they need to have the right amount of rain for robusta blossom to be successfull or else results in such pinking incidence.

Back to back crop losses for indonesia farmers after they had on of the best harvest in 2024-2025 period.

This was supposed be their upcycle by the way.
Little rain won't save the crop but will help the plants survive.

[manohar @sriee_m]

@SpillingTheBean https://t.co/cv5RSdCpXh

5000 hot spots reported last week
One of the hottest driest coffee regions has been southern indonesia.

#elnino continues to strengthen at a record phase.

[manohar @sriee_m]

Heart breaking 💔💔 as
Indonesia struggles for drinking water,
Some rains expected to ease their pain unfortunately plants have significantly weakend due to the heat stress led by the ongoing drought all we will need is some rains flowers bloom few bears running around how beautiful the flowering is how wonderfull their successive harvest will be.
Did see a reputed forecasters giving wild numbers on Brazil next crop to inspite of the plant pruning that is being taken up after this harvest.

#elnino

[manohar @sriee_m]

@SpillingTheBean The crop is as good as lost best case is to hope the rains arrive soon as possible saving the plants atleast before it's to late.

[manohar @sriee_m]

@SpillingTheBean El nino will make the supply situation worsen in Colombia.
Brazil and Colombia heading into a sever drought.

[manohar @sriee_m]

@SpillingTheBean @SpillingTheBean thank you for reporting of this maja all we see is how huge uganda exports have been for past several months. Now on the drought situation uganda is facing.

[manohar @sriee_m]

@AlbFerracuti Yes alfy extraordinary vegetative growth is being witnessed.
Doesn't give enough time to pick up the dropped cheeries to using sweepers the dropped beans will germinate on the soil itself.

[manohar @sriee_m]

In order to export coffee to new markets and gain market share during a supply squeeze seen past 5 years such statements are made, in fact there are big trading houses which have taken over huge farms to produce coffee and get farmers involved in farming coffee for them.

The X factor will always be weather
@rohlfs_werner just pointed out climate change global warming and weather risk will always remain.

The coffee sell off is taking place as if there is no frost season ahead .

We can distribute all the seedling we want still farmers need fertilizer, inputs to care for the plants and supportive weather to produce that crop to earn decent living wage,
But the question is does uganda really have the infrastructure to produce process and export 20 million bags even if the prices continue to stay at these levels is what we will need answering in 2030.

PRICE is what gets farmer interest up right now they aren't going crazy over coffee you can see it.

Let's see how this post ages by Feb 28th 2027🤣

La nina just collapsed like a deck of cards.

[manohar @sriee_m]

@Thuttu4 What has occured here ?

[manohar @sriee_m]

@Thuttu4 this are trade house hired bots who speak nonsense you continue to focus on sharing the reality of the situation they did not see this coming there is panic there forecasts there is talk of demand problems they expected to ride on the vietnam supply.
This is panic in full display.

[manohar @sriee_m]

@BenNollWeather @grok help me find the above gif

[manohar @sriee_m]

@F4tailhook