Swaraj Rajagopal

Trader tweeting about strategies and insights I find interesting. Love watches, classic cars and Single Malt. FX,Commodities and Rates Analyst.

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

Breakdown of RBI's Reserves Jan-25 to Nov-25

Total Reserves has gone up by USD 57 billion (USD 20 billion rise in FX assets and USD 35 billion rise in Gold)

Gold holdings meanwhile has increased by only 32 tonnes or 3.6%. Large gains seem to come from valuation impact

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

Asian markets

India 10 year higher by 38 bps
Indonesia 10 year higher by 35 bps
Philippines 10 year higher by 144 bps (big one)
Malaysia 10 year higher by only 9 bps
Thai 10 year higher by 11 bps

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

Yields across are going up as inflation risks remain entrenched. Central banks globally have shifted from an easing stance to now a hawkish watch over inflation. Key dilemma is whether energy price shock is transitory.

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

Since the end of February (start of Iran war)- following is movement in yields

US 10 year is higher by 57 bps
EU 10 year is higher by 42 bps
JPY 10 year is higher by 60 bps
Big one- UK 10 year higher by 74 bps (Political instability premium entrenched)

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

@openletteryt Just like humans are labelled as Americans or Indians but the core human traits remains the same, politics may show different colours but the core traits will remain the same across parties. It’s an illusion of choice.

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

Layer Cake 2004. Daniel Craig before Bond. Michael Gambon delivers maybe the realest quote in cinema- “You’re born you take shit. Climb higher you take less. One day you’re up in the rarefied atmosphere and you’ve forgotten what shit even looks like”. Great movie!

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

“God’s Crooked Lines” is a Spanish thriller about a woman who swears she was legally kidnapped into a mental asylum. You’ll spend the entire movie wondering if she’s a genius con artist or truly disturbed.

Plan to keep this thread updated with all the nice movies I watch

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

@dugalira @RBI In the RBI unlocked series they do show a glimpse of the mint and gold inside. It’s available on their youtube channel. Pretty nice series

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

Monetary policy remains unchanged. Is there a covert easing going on? TREPS & Call money rates see sudden easing

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

Full reserves breakdown for CY2025. Long term short USD forwards have risen significantly due to the Buy/Sell Swaps. Gold quantity remaining stable but value wise seen a significant jump

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

Breakdown of RBI's Reserves Jan-25 to Nov-25

Total Reserves has gone up by USD 57 billion (USD 20 billion rise in FX assets and USD 35 billion rise in Gold)

Gold holdings meanwhile has increased by only 32 tonnes or 3.6%. Large gains seem to come from valuation impact

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

At awe about the over intellectualised long format articles that’s become prevalent on X. 90% of them seem BS. Today nothing stops me from using AI and write click bait articles targeting problems about attention span, focus, health and productivity. Time is near to cut down on X

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

Short forward book (less than 1 year) has come down by USD 44 billion

Short forward book (greater than 1 year) has gone up by USD 28 billion

RBI restarted taking short positions in offshore market starting August

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

@SahilKapoor Wondering how long after your tweet would someone start an internet startup using an AI model in the backend to address this problem statement on a larger scale :)

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

@MacroSpectrum Really like this shift in your content strategy. Your write ups are always insightful & top notch!

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

@SahilKapoor Silver with bullion dealers being sold at approx. ₹1.73 lakhs per kg while MCX December future is trading at ₹1.53 lakhs. Great arbitrage if you hold large quantum of physical silver. Good call on Silver trend Sahil!

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

Asia’s deflationary impulses lead by China dumping cheap goods and the range of views within the Fed.

Powell has been able to manage dissenters in the previous meeting to deliver a record 11-1 vote on rates. Unanimous though a lot of members remain cautious.

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

My greatest realisation from working in managing FX risk- exporting is a great way of utilising the arbitrage in purchasing power.Exporting imports purchasing power of a stronger currency. Just like soybean traders wish to have their farm, I too wish of utilising this arbitrage

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

@iambhavyar It’s all about VaR at the moment since I’m in the profession of risk management 😂😂
By IRR you mean internal rate of ruin right?

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

Days like these remind me why I love my job. It’s these bouncers 3-4 times a year that have you stump and you try to intellectualise things to avoid feeling the reality of markets.

Reality remains supreme-intellectualising problems creates more problems

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

This is also intellectualising :)

[Swaraj Rajagopal @srr2803]

@UrbanKaoboy Nicely written Michael, provides solid insights into admin’s strategies!