Scott Seidel

[Scott Seidel @srseidel]

So refreshing to see a financial advisor who actually understands new technology without getting lost in the hype. Calm, data-driven analysis explaining what’s really happening with rates and the economy instead of the usual “AI changes everything” narrative. No finance-bro hype.

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

The consensus is reaching for AI to explain the cycle's resilience. Stocks higher through every shock for years.

But AI's contribution to nominal GDP runs 0.7% on average vs the deficit's 6.1%. At any plausible multiplier, the deficit dwarfs AI. The deficit was there first.

https://t.co/lBak5YJ53a

[Scott Seidel @srseidel]

@EricWHickman Congrats!! This is awesome press, I remember when you wrote this 👏

[TaxiStake @TaxiStake]

Juno update: The validator set is now the top 25 by consensus vote.

Validators outside the top 25, including ShapeShift, are inactive. If you're delegated to one, please unbond or redelegate your $JUNO.

TaxiStake operated this validator, thanks for your support!

[Scott Seidel @srseidel]

@EricWHickman How much lag do you think there is between tariff implementation and goods CPI? Is it possible we’re still in an inventory-absorption phase, with high inventories keeping prices lower?

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

No. Powell said “if we resume cutting at some point—we will at some point” in the press conference, suggesting in his mind, the Fed is paused for at least awhile. There are only a few doves on the committee, Miran, Waller, Bowman, and maybe Daly, maybe Williams. Everyone else we’ve heard from has been working towards a pause since September (per Nick’s article). Collins and Bostic have explicitly said they don’t want to cut until inflation turns back around. The Taylor rule suggests they shouldn’t cut again (until unemployment reaches 4.9%). The idea that the Fed has an easing bias is an invention by those hoping for one. The labor market has seemingly stabilized since the summer (Chi Fed unemployment forecast), up to date claims show no labor deterioration, the consumer is spending at about 1.8% real (3mo. ann using CART data using Sep and Oct), and 60% of the cpi (core services) has risen at 3.9% annualized over the last 3 months, not from tariffs. You are right the Fed has not changed their tune, it has been predominantly hawkish for months.

[Scott Seidel @srseidel]

Very cool and informative. I love the data driven approach. I’m a total follower of Lantern Capital and the LDEI! Keep it coming!

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

There isn't anything wrong with the economy yet, largely because the deficit is so big. It has recovered from 5 recession scares over the last three years with the deficit averaging 6.4% of GDP. "The economy is only resting on high income spenders and AI" narrative was dismissed well by Powell at the last press conference. When you put all the well-known reliable data together (LDEI), it shows the economy has been growing steadily around 2.5% since August causing the Fed to be hawkish.

For the insured unemployment rate to rise up to the lowest level where a recession has begun (2001), continuing claims would need to rise 1.2mm, more than double what they've risen over the last 3.5 years. Need layoffs for a recession.

Nothing looks recessionary now although I suspect that given "cockroaches" being seen now, it may next year.

[TaxiStake @TaxiStake]

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[TaxiStake @TaxiStake]

TaxiStake has supported Neutron from the beginning during ICS and is excited for this next chapter. We’ll be back validating as soon as the active set allows — stay tuned! ⚛️🚕 #Neutron #Cosmos

[TaxiStake @TaxiStake]

Discover why @Arkeonetwork matters in today's world! Learn how decentralized blockchain data contributes to the security and censorship-resistance of blockchain networks. Read the full article: https://t.co/05Azer2u1k

[TaxiStake @TaxiStake]

Thrilled to launch @Arkeonetwork as a genesis validator! We’re proud to advance censorship-resistant blockchain data. Grateful to @ShapeShift and the Arkeo community. 🦊
We love Cosmos!

[Scott Seidel @srseidel]

@Kaldun_pl @Acyn His little tikes suit matched his temper tantrum perfectly!

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

The Democrat to Republican first year curse. In four of the five times that Republican administrations have taken over for Democratic ones since The Great Depression, the new administration had a recession in their first year. New post on my website, https://t.co/m6kvbjJzaO

[Scott Seidel @srseidel]

This is fascinating! The Lantern Daily Economic Index (LDEI) will definitely be part of my financial tool belt when it comes to rates and inflation. I also love that it’s daily!

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

What does the LDEI index level mean? Its relationship to nominal GDP, on my website, https://t.co/mMbdqUbv8o

[Scott Seidel @srseidel]

This is so fascinating! Like many, I had always assumed the 12 districts would be equal. Great data and paper!"

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

White Paper: GDP of each Federal Reserve District. I couldn't find this anywhere else so I calculated it. Much more variation than I expected. https://t.co/wMv4qqhxjx

[TaxiStake @TaxiStake]

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[Scott Seidel @srseidel]

Dear Supreme Court,

Please uphold our current belief that no one is above the law. Otherwise, please stand down and refer all questions to the acting Monarch, King Biden.

#WTF #Democracy #Vote #DoBetter

[Scott Seidel @srseidel]

I remember when I was growing up, all political leaders were my parents' age. Now that I'm an adult, the political leaders are my parents' age. #TermLimitsEverywhere

[vSelf 💎 Your Marketing Assistant @vself_meta]

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[Scott Seidel @srseidel]

This is a very interesting and informative post. I have heard the comparison of today versus 1970, and this really helped explain how they are similar but yet so different.

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

My latest, "It Won't Be a Repeat of the 1970's." Economic conditions now are quite different from the 1970’s and still disinflationary.

https://t.co/Gk0DimIi9d

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

With the Israel-Hamas conflict escalating, there is concern of wider war. War is inflationary, but Treasury yields don’t necessarily rise during them because there are often bigger forces at play such as the business cycle, secular trends in inflation, or yield curve control.