Guy Stables

Just a group of guys looking to win the derby. @photofinishgame

[ian c @ThirdTimeIan]

https://t.co/TPHolytsQO

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

@dsilver88 I am only involved in and pull data for LD

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

How do LD majors net out after qualifiers? Here is a breakdown of how stables have performed over the past 12 seasons including net qualifying costs. Just some data for anyone curious about the economics behind LD majors.

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

@ThirdTimeIan @awscloud Have the bad actor sign the appeal as well. I assume the virus doesn’t want to kill the host.

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

@SupremeSpeedR I only pull in data for LD

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

Below are the top 25 studs in LDF and LDS and the current stud fee for each going into this seasons breeding cycle. This is ranked in order by a combination of race performance, attributes, prefs, ml odds (scaled by season and competition).

Note: Stud fees subject to change.

[Photo Finish™ LIVE 🐎 Virtual Horse Racing @photofinishgame]

EST. 2023.

OPOS.

🏇🏽 @toly

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

@YourGlockness 174, he was ok on the track and his ML odds were not that great relative to peers.

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

Below are the top 20 studs in LDF and LDS and the locked stud fee for each going into this seasons breeding cycle. The ranking is based on a combination of factors we think are important in selection. grade, preference, ranking within its distance preference and consistency.

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

@WuDavide7 No. I only do LD

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

@EvilEmpireX Its actual_wins vs expected_wins. Expected_wins is based on Morning Line odds (ML).

A higher z-score means the horse won far more than expected given its ML odds. I believe its measuring aging \ peaking.

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

@photofinishgame @solana Love the game and definitely addicted. Looking at my horses is like watching the roulette wheel spin in Vegas.

b28a8d3c-b246-4434-bcd1-aef242f9d85b

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

2/2 - at a high level big brain has 93% more top 5 finishes than ml would expect. My stable has 73.4% less.
rugged_count = how many times you you got weather rugged
rel_diff_pct = how far your Top-5 results deviated from what the ML predicted, in percentage terms.

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

1/2 - Being a stats guy I love to use numbers and metrics to determine how i'm stacking up to the competition... and there's no better race to compare against than the majors with prize money is handed out for the top 5 spots. The below shows all LD majors since season 20.

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

@mikesowerss @photofinishgame Amazing horse. Was looking at her after this race and she sure is a monster

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

@ThirdTimeIan @mikesowerss @Consulate_ @photofinishgame Can this kind of automated breeding be stopped reliably? Since the requests are authenticated, how can the system distinguish between a normal breeding request and one coming from a bot or script?

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

@ai_paddock @photofinishgame how do you know attributes or some other factor is not skewering results. the fact 0 star dominates on yielding seems off. if 2 horses have 3 stars direction and surface, but one has 3 stars firm and other has 0 stars firm why would 0 stars firm be better on yielding

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

@abs_HP Ready for the Money might have been good but was given up on. Too untested for me. Good ML but since it wasn’t great at 2 and first race at 3 were poor you might be pushing your foals peaking to 4+

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

@CryptoCrown12 i think time is a better indicator. progeny record compares against competition in a narrow scope. only horses the same age and who happen to enter same race. time compares a much broader scope across every horse that ever ran in the same distance and condition.

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

These are the top 20 studs in LDS as rated by a combination of the following attributes along with their associated stud fee:

- Grade
- Prefs
- Race performance
- Race times
- Consistency
- ML odds

[Guy Stables @stables_guy]

I missed one horse on the LDS list. This horse should be #3

https://t.co/Gg4FP3n3bH