Matthew Stack

[Derek Farnsworth @RG_Notorious]

Ran 5,000 simulations for the John Deere Classic.

No clear favorite this week.

Chris Gotterup won the most often in the sims, but he grades as a negative value based on his odds.

The model's biggest outright value? Jackson Suber.

This event has a history of being a springboard for young stars (Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau), so +5600 on Suber is interesting.

📊 Left: Sorted by win probability in the sims.

💰 Right: Sorted by betting value with current odds.

I'll be back tomorrow with the Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20 odds. 🫡

[Dre Horizon @drehorizon]

I’m shutting down the Strait

[Fried Egg Golf @fried_egg_golf]

Profiling all the contenders, amateurs, and more ahead of the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills ⬇️
https://t.co/N2dOhIHIyx

[Camus @newstart_2024]

Matthew McConaughey cuts through the “do what you love” hype.

Sometimes the job sucks. Sometimes the relationship needs work. Sometimes you don’t feel like tending the fire you’ve been building for years.

But that doesn’t always mean it’s wrong, it might just mean it’s hard.

He says do the sweaty, bloody work anyway. Put out the small smoke before it becomes a blaze. Sacrifice today so you can sleep better tomorrow, still connected to who you set out to be.

Real life isn’t all passion. Sometimes it’s tending the garden even when you’d rather walk away.

[cinesthetic. @TheCinesthetic]

The funniest thing about Viggo Mortensen’s Satan in THE PROPHECY (1995) is that the movie spends all this time building up angels, prophecies, and cosmic battles, then the Devil finally arrives and instantly becomes the most interesting person in the room.

[Skol Doc @Skol_Doc]

Per @WillRagatz, JJ McCarthy was the best qb on the field today in practice

#vikings

[Stephen Krupka @StephenKrupka]

Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR, created by @friscojosh) is my favorite metric for evaluating pass-catcher opportunity.

2025 WR WOPR Leaders 👇

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 0.89
2. Garrett Wilson - 0.85
3. Malik Nabers - 0.79
4. Ja'Marr Chase - 0.74
5. Drake London - 0.74
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown - 0.73
7. Chris Olave - 0.73
8. Justin Jefferson - 0.72
9. A.J. Brown - 0.71
10. Zay Flowers - 0.69

Data: @TruMediaSports

[michael @ooooftw]

now live: DraftKings player data dashboard

this is similar to the Underdog one, but DK doesn't give us ADP/advance rates. instead i show some DK-specific data:

-passing bonus counts (300+ yards)
-rushing and receiving bonus counts (100+ yards)

also added home/away splits

[Jacob Gibbs @jagibbs_23]

I bet you cannot guess who leads the NFL in yards per scramble (9.4) over the past two seasons.

80 scrambles for 750 rushing yards

[Alice in Chains @AiCLayneStaley]

On This Day— Alice in Chains’ iconic MTV Unplugged performance first aired May 28, 1996.

The legendary acoustic set was recorded a few weeks prior on April 10, 1996, at the Brooklyn Academy of Music’s Majestic Theatre, NY. It served as the band's first concert in 2.5 years.

[Len Ashby @ZENofLEN]

I want to create a tv show where top players from today go and try and recreate shots that Tiger hit back in the day with the same equipment he used just to make a point.

[Swish Street @SwishStreet]

20 years old btw

[michael @ooooftw]

2026 best ball schedule cheatsheet with bye weeks

11 minutes faster than last year haha

[Sam @wahoowaaa]

The PGA Championship starts in 2 days…

And this may be the MOST predictable major we’ve seen in years.

Since the PGA moved to May in 2019:

Every single winner checked the SAME 5 boxes.

7 straight champions.
0 exceptions.

If you want to bet Aronimink this week, these are the trends you NEED to know 🧵

[Ben Coley @BenColeyGolf]

Preview of the PGA Championship now unlocked and available for all to read

https://t.co/e7kXRchPp7

[NUCLR GOLF @NUCLRGOLF]

🚨🗣️⛳️ #NEW — Brooks Koepka reacts after firing a 64 in Myrtle Beach: “That's the most excited I've been playing golf in a long, long time… I would say back until '23, the PGA. That's the most, it's been a long time since I've had fun playing golf.”

[Alex Insdorf @alexinsdorf99]

Chargers OC Mike McDaniel on building an offense for Justin Herbert: "When I got here, my first task that I bestowed upon myself is I watched every pass play that he's ever had in the National Football League."

"His expectations are the highest for himself...I'd say that we're looking to master and be elite at everything we do. And being able to own the position in a new way, for him to own the position in a way he never has."

"For it to be obvious to everyone around that he's playing the best football of his career."

[Ian Hartitz @Ihartitz]

Running back success rate and yards per carry in 2025

[NBACentral @TheDunkCentral]

"Flopping has ruined our league. Joel Embiid is one of the greatest players that has played basketball, but he flops. He knows it too"

- Jaylen Brown

(h/t @rileysbetter )

[Hoop Central @TheHoopCentral]

Jaylen Brown on Joel Embiid:

“We didn’t really have an answer for him…He's a big body. He also was flopping around. He got some extra calls and stuff like that, and they rewarded him for that. But that's the league that we're in.”

(h/t @ohnohedidnt24)