Stackzz | Crypto Perps

Crypto perps: BTC, ETH, SOL + alts
Completed-candle setups, invalidations & risk
Trade the close, not the wick

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

~1,770 btc traded in 24h, 0.31x the 30d pace
saturday's whole range was about $700
key: 1H close over 76,095
75,264 is friday's 8am low

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

Coinbase BTC made one push at 5am and stalled at 76,095, about $57 short of Saturday's 1am high at 76,152.

That lower high got sold in the 8am hour. Price slid from 75,998 to 75,610 on roughly double the overnight volume, and the 9am hour dipped to 75,560.

Since Saturday morning every hour has stayed between 75,453 and 76,152. Last is 75,677, close to the middle.

A 1H close over 76,095 breaks the lower-high pattern. A 1H close under 75,264 takes out Friday's 8am low and leaves the box behind.

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

sat 2 to 4pm pt added another ~900 bch
liquidations since sat 1pm pt: 0.27 bch total
funding mostly negative overnight, near flat now
the whole kraken book is only ~$1.25m

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

the bch floor broke yesterday and kraken's perp book just kept getting BIGGER.

open interest went from about 3,000 bch saturday morning to over 5,000 now.

about half of that increase landed between 5 and 7am, starting the same hour coinbase printed a new low at $243.47.

the book grew while reported liquidations stayed tiny. that shows a net build in open contracts, not whether longs or shorts have the better trade.

bch is back near $246 now, about $2.40 off that low.

a fresh low with a book almost 70% heavier. who do you think is holding it?

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

the drop hour did ~3.1k bch, about 27% of coinbase's day
held 246.54–249.82 since the flush
oct 15's 255.99 low is overhead now
quiet tape after a loud break always makes me twitchy

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

BCH spent the day testing its mid-October low near 256 on Coinbase, and around noon it finally stopped bouncing. The drop ran to 243.84 before anything caught it.

What's bugged me since is how little came back. You'd expect the usual snap toward the old line, the kind that makes everyone who sold the low feel dumb. Eight hours on, it's boxed in a tight few-dollar range instead, and every hour has traded thinner than the drop did. A floor that held for three weeks usually puts up a fight when it goes.

This one barely got an argument.

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

1:00 and 2:00 traded about 357k lighter
3.356 marked the bounce high after the dump
3.151 is this morning's low
3.578 from nov 4 still hasn't been taken

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

Coinbase had Lighter up at 3.56 just after midnight, tucked under the November 4 lid. Then it broke. The next two prints did most of the damage, and the slide ran down to 3.151 around 8:00 PT.

It had been pressing that same lid for days and still couldn't clear it. The bounce that followed only made it to 3.356 at 14:00 and couldn't stay there. Last print is 3.263, with about $4.7M through that book today.

The bounce has been quieter than the break was.

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

oi went 326k to 411k uni
7.04 was the midday dip low on the perp
spot hasn't chased, ~77% of a normal day
high 7.236, ~7.16 now

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

Uniswap is up almost 4% on a day most of the board is red, and the leverage behind it arrived all at once.

Late in the morning, Kraken's UNI perp added about a quarter to its open interest in less than sixty minutes. The perp traded about three quarters of the previous day's volume in that stretch while price lifted only 1.5%.

Then nothing left. Six hours on, the book is still within 1% of that peak, and funding has barely leaned either way.

Somebody opened that position with conviction and so far hasn't been asked to defend it.

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

box was 76,152 to 75,452
6 of the 9 breaks pointed down
only one high printed over 76,100
ticker ~75,685, still mid-box

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

the 15-minute btc chart was the most expensive app on your phone today.

over the last 24 hours it walked $3,615 on coinbase, if you add up every 15-minute close to close.

all that walking left it $255 lower.

nine times it closed through a three-hour high or low. not one of them left the same $700 box.

coinbase traded about 2,470 bitcoin for the trip. its 30-day daily average is closer to 5,860.

you didn't miss a move. you paid fees to sit inside one.

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

~46h boxed between 88.15 and 91.48 since thursday's flush
1H close over 90.28 breaks the fade off friday's high
88.15 on a 1H close is where the flush floor gives
perp funding has tipped slightly negative into the slide

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

Solana is back within about half a percent of the 88.15 print from Thursday's flush, and nothing on the way down has looked like anyone trying to defend it.

Coinbase dumped it from near 98 on Wednesday into that low. The best bounce since was 91.48 on Friday morning, and every push after that stalled a little lower. Around noon today it took out this morning's 89.08 dip and now sits near 88.70. Kraken's spot book is within a cent of it.

All of it is happening on well under half a normal day's volume. A quiet slide into a floor tells me less than a loud test of it would.

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

~6.0m ct on coinbase today (~1.7x its 30d pace)
1H close through 0.13496 opens 0.146 again
1H close under 0.12397 kills the overnight print
nov 5's 0.11433 is the swing floor under this coil

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

CT printed 0.146 on Coinbase in the 1:00 PT hour and couldn't keep any of the upper half.

That single hour turned over about 1.0M CT, the densest clip this book has seen in a week. Price is back near 0.128 now, a little green off the open with the shove already cooked. Same pocket on Kraken.

Hold a 1H close over 0.13496 and 0.146 comes back into play. Lose 0.12397 on a 1H close and that overnight print is dead.

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

16k hourly opens on coinbase btc since jan 2025
short exits are ~23% of the sample, long ones almost half
median winner held 13h, median loser 11h
flat average R hides which process you ran

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

My journal used to grade every green the same. A two-hour scalp and a hold that ran into the next session both just said +1R.

Before an AI reviews my week now, I make it add one column first. How many hours the trade was open. Then split the win rate and the stop-outs by that bucket.

I ran a plain long at every Coinbase bitcoin hourly open since January 2025, equal target and stop, out by a day. Exits that finished inside four hours got stopped about 53% of the time. Exits that lasted past twelve hours only got stopped about 23%. The win rates sit close enough that a flat average R shrugs and moves on.

Same dollar result on paper. Different process. If the review can't see hold time, it keeps coaching the wrong habit.

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

flush hour ~196 btc vs ~85 overnight avg
forming 8am hour ~76 btc at snapshot
repair: 1H close back through 76,152
75,177 is friday's 6am low

[Stackzz | Crypto Perps @stackzz]

Coinbase tagged 76,152 at 1am. That was the overnight stretch. It didn't stick. Price faded for the rest of the night, and the 7am hour undercut the overnight floor at 75,674 and printed 75,508.

Volume finally showed up on that undercut after a quiet night on the book. Last sits just under the broken floor near 75,621, still coiled.

Repair is a 1H close back through 76,152. A 1H close under 75,177 puts Friday's 6am low behind us.