Samuel Benner, a farmer from the 1800s, published a book with market analysis on periods of panic, good times to buy, and good times to sell. 150 years later, his analysis has proven to be remarkably accurate.
The most likely outcome is that AI and robots make everyone wealthy. In fact, far wealthier than the richest person on Earth ๐
By this, I mean that people will have access to everything from medical care that is superhuman to games that are far more fun that what exists today.
We do need to make sure that AI cares deeply about truth and beauty for this to be the probable future.
Oppenheimer analysts raised their price target for Nvidia's stock, saying they view the chipmaker as best positioned to "win in AI." https://t.co/EhK1OZ0jDX
@celebriD@megynkelly She talking about the fake hair and how the liberals were ok with Beyoncรฉ add and not the Sydney Sweeney add. Itโs not about Beyoncรฉ
I remain bullish currently and today the S&P remains up slightly intra-day and near 52 week highs despite tariff threats on a slew of nations over the weekend. This was certainly not the reaction to ramped up tariff rhetoric through early April of this year. I pay attention to the reaction to the data more so than the actual data for my near-term views while the actual data shapes my longer-term views. This reaction today tells me there is probably still more upside with 1) a near record ~$7.1 trillion in money market funds up 15% y/y providing more buying power and 2) expectations of Fed rate cuts supporting high market multiples.
In addition, upcoming Q2 earnings should be solid. This is driven by: 1) due to the tariff turmoil, conservative guidance was given by companies during Q1 earnings that sets a low bar for upcoming Q2 results, 2) the 7% drop in the US dollar in Q2 from Q1 helps the ~40% of revenues in the S&P that are international, and 3) there seems to be some continuing pull forward in demand in front of the price increases later this year due to tariffs.
Longer-term, I continue to believe there could be a 10-20% drop in the markets later this year as we approach Thanksgiving. This is due to the pull forward in demand occurring (imports up 38% y/y in Q1) hurting demand during the holidays and high PE levels at 24x CY25. But there is a cost to being too early (or too late.)
I remain bullish near-term but am prepared to react as the market reaction to data changes. Right now the glass is half full. As Charles Darwin said, โIt is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most adaptable to change.โ