stateofblocks

Whispers from the Bullpen

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

been 1 month since this $SOL update, and 1W volatility is expanding now as we speak

SOL has never been this compressed on the weekly TF

[stateofblocks @stateofblocks]

Interested in a terminal / screener / dashboard that folks will actually use to track your projects growth?

Reach out to @that1618guy and let’s work together

Anyone can build a dashboard. But a great one helps tell your story properly, the way it should.

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

if u enjoy the free $PONS terminal i have alot more stuff cooking over on my platform @stateofblocks

j published my fav BBWP screener to show how i catch moves like $ENA, $PENGU before they happen. its all free mate, so shoot a follow to support, tyvm!

https://t.co/d3AG0crBRc

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

$ZEC $HYPE $VVV - A privacy coin, a perp dex and an AI token. 3 names that share nothing fundamentally yet trading correlated like one asset for months.

Everyone that I spoke to then was in exactly these 3 trades. Which got me thinking… is crowding actually a bad thing?

So I wrote The Crowded Book

The backdrop: through the first half of 2026 crypto narrowed. $BTC lost its equity correlation to the upside, the pool of investable alts shrank, and across nearly every sector most tokens fell hard. However, these 3 ran anyway. ZEC on a privacy driven scarcity bid, HYPE on buybacks funded by real trading fee cash flow, VVV on a high beta AI trade

Then it broke on June 4th. A critical bug was found in Zcash's shielded pool using frontier AI models, ZEC got cut in half and the fear didnt stay contained. Sentiment at that time: If AI could crack a top 15 chain what else was exposed? Over 48 hours ETH SOL HYPE and VVV got pulled down together while BTC barely moved. I call this the june cascade

The cascade was a market clearing event. HYPE recovered fully, ZEC clawed back most of a much deeper fall, VVV never got going off the lows. They fell together but the fall alone proves nothing. the recovery is what told them apart

Turns out crowding itself is not the problem.

What matters is whether the crowd is funded, paid for by something durable like cash flows or a supply sink, or borrowed, resting on leverage and momentum through a thin float. Funded crowding survives a shock. Borrowed crowding hands its gains back the moment the tape turns

This report covers why capital narrowed to this list, the cascade as case study, and a scorecard you can run on any crowded position of yr own

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

Finally gotten around to building this for my @stateofblocks community

My personal favorite setup: the weekly 9/21 EMA crossover

The problem is I was always flipping through 50+ charts trying to remember which alts were setting up for a trend change ... so I built a screener that does it for me

It scans the top 50 alts on Bybit spot every day and tells me:
> Which ones are approaching their 9/21 cross (and how many weeks out)
> Which ones just crossed and are retesting the EMAs (the real entry)
> Which ones have compressed volatility (squeeze) ready to expand

Already caught RENDER cross and TON retest

Live and free: https://t.co/YmrXDyx34L

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

Heres what FMI looks like in practice

When multiple stressors measures fire at once (peaks above 65-75), Alts tend to get fragile & that's when washouts happen

FMI push to 75 earlier this month caught the recent Alt pullback nicely

Current reading @ 19.5 w 1/7 components elevated meaning cascade risk is low right now

More detail to follow

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

Shared this note with my folks over at @stateofblocks in early Feb 26 when $HYPE ran from $20 to ~$40

was looking for a pullback/consolidation to mid 20s and thats what we got HYPE went from $40 -> $25

j revisited this note and wow... played out amazingly well

[Delphi Digital @Delphi_Digital]

Gold's structural cycle still has BTC ahead of it.

Gold's 18% pullback from its $5,589 January peak came from three macro drivers: the Warsh nomination sparked hawkish repricing, Operation Epic Fury on February 28 sent oil above $100 and re-accelerated inflation, and the USD rebounded.

The PBOC's March 2026 purchase of 5 tonnes was its largest in over a year and brought reserves to 2,313 tonnes, or 9.6% of total reserve assets. Net central bank purchases totaled 244 tonnes globally in Q1 2026, above the prior quarter and the five-year average. 68% of central banks plan to increase gold holdings in 2026, up from 62% last year. The structural bid did not move with the price.

Gold and Global M2 have historically led BTC by 3-4 months. The current lag has stretched to 5-6 months. 2020 saw a similar dynamic when COVID delayed the handoff before the cycle re-asserted. The Iran shock may be playing a similar role this cycle.

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

$SUI full TP (+40%) from entry 🔥

@stateofblocks

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

Fwiw shared this note back in early March with @Delphi_Digital members on my view on $BTC vs $GOLD

BTC/GOLD ratio was sitting at 12.1 then and it’s now at 17.36 up ~ +43%?

Still believe H2 of this year will be meaningful for the ratio as the king corn plays catchup

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

https://t.co/mRSOY4jHFa

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

Wow… CPS continues to climb now at 0.9188 while $BTC price grinds out this mid 70k range

This is a setup for a large basing area before the eventual blow off -> This is VERY BULLISH for the king corn

“BTC is lagging US equities bla bla”

“When equities pull back BTC is done”

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

this regime is the healthiest its ever been -> patience continues to climb while $BTC is still held below 80k

this current C regime continues to give us clues that it should be durable

[Delphi Digital @Delphi_Digital]

BTC recently cleared $75k and the Game Theory model is reading this as a structural shift.

The Composite Patience Score (CPS) tracks the balance between patient and speculative capital on a daily basis. It now sits at 0.68, which is comfortably above the 0.57 durability threshold.

The Cooperation regime that flipped earlier this week is strengthening instead of stalling.

The $75k touch played out within 4 days as the model's base case, and a pullback into the low $72s would be on the expected path for the regime. The first real warning sign would be a decisive break below 0.57 on CPS.

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

Most people analyze Bitcoin through a price lens.

I've spent the last year asking a different question: what if the coordination dynamics between patient and speculative capital matter more than where you think price is headed?

I see the Bitcoin market as a repeated coordination game. 2 types of capital show up every day: patient money (ETF holders, LTH accumulators) and speculative money (leveraged perps, momentum desks).

Who's running the show at any given time is what actually drives market structure.

Here's the tension.

When patient capital cooperates, everyone benefits. Ranges compress, positioning builds quietly, and the trend compounds. But defection is always the better short-term play: extract before others do, front-run the move, lever up.

The problem is when too many participants do it at once, liquidity degrades, volatility spikes, and everyone gets punished. Classic prisoner's dilemma playing out across thousands of actors with different time horizons every day.

That's why Bitcoin cycles look so repetitive. Same structure every time. Most capital destruction doesn't happen at entry, in fact it happens when coordination fractures and you don't recognize the shift until price has already confirmed it.

So the question for any allocator isn't "where is price going?"

Rather, its "which regime am I in, and is coordination intact or breaking down?"

That's what my BTC Game Theory model tracks the 3 behavioral states in real time:
> Cooperation: Patient capital in control. 66% of the time. Where long exposure compounds.
> Mixed: Transition zone. Nobody's in charge. No trade.
> Defection: Leverage and reflexivity take over. 19% of the time but contains the worst drawdowns.

Most capital destruction doesn't happen at entry but it happens when coordination fractures and you don't recognize the shift until it's too late.

The model flagged both the 2022 bear market and the 2025 decline before price confirmed the breakdown -not by predicting price, but by catching the behavioral shift underneath.

Full framework is live now on the Delphi's portal - how the regimes form, why they transition, and the mechanics that kept the model out of both major drawdowns.

Bitcoin markets are a coordination game, not a price prediction problem.

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

Since this last post (Apr 7) my model's price cone over the next 14 days has moved up

$BTC range now is 60,443 - 85,931

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

Not every Bitcoin market rewards holding spot

Sometimes the edge is trend
Sometimes it’s mean reversion

Different regime -> different deployment strategy

I’ve been building a game theory framework (BTC GT) that identifies the regime first, then allocates capital accordingly

Clip from my conservation with @laurashin on @Unchained_pod

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

Research via @Delphi_Digital otw on how my BTC GT model works first
then followed by custom CTA strategies i've layered on top of it
going to be a banger, stay tuned 🫡

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

BTC Game Theory Model Update

Currently in Day 15 of Defection - Capital preservation is the current model's position

Only 20% of D regimes have lasted this long, most burn out within a week

Price is +7.8% from regime start but the historical mean at this point is +1.6% and D regimes have no reliable directional edge

Cooperation signals haven't reformed and until they do and survive the persistence filter, there's nothing to act on. The model is still staying in cash.

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

Refreshed my BTC Game Theory model dashboard UI + minor logic tweaks

Pushed:

-> GT regime rainbow model + strategy toggle
-> new data pipelines to keep UI current
-> simplified overview of current regime
-> cleaner more professional UI

In the works:

-> more stats on each regime's hazard rates
(i.e. By Day 9, Defection regimes face an 85% hazard rate, meaning only 15% survive to Day 10)

-> more stats on regime's Persistence rates
(i.e. Once Cooperation regimes reach Day 20, 72% continue to persist through Day 40)

-> tradable strategies for regime mean deviation (i.e. Day 5 Defection out of the S.D.; therefore a mean reversion play to the baseline etc
+ much more, just need time to build / test.

Cheers.