stateofblocks

the research desk of @that1618guy
models, flows, setups

[stateofblocks @stateofblocks]

@RobinhoodCrypto @that1618guy 👀

[stateofblocks @stateofblocks]

Trying a long here for $INTC

@that1618guy

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

Haven’t shared much ab this on X, but I’ve been working on @stateofblocks since 2020

Had a chat w the bros @ripchillpill @R2D2zen ab all this and I think they loved the Grift Index the most 🤣

Anw this started off in 2020 as a community where folks and I share trade ideas, to now one where I have built models / dashboards / metrics that I use to track the market every single day. I also will be sharing more research and data on chains + protocols that interests me (RH chain 👀)

[stateofblocks @stateofblocks]

Discords free to join, with more features enabled for premium members

https://t.co/aLDu9VCrl7

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

when i posted this take about buying the $LIT dip folks on X was wilding out

shared this setup at @stateofblocks community ~2 weeks back, so far so good will continue to monitor. regardless of relative strength, if broader market continues to slide i think LIT mean reverts

however, will likely bounce the hardest when the mkt stabilizes which is why i say its worth observing =/ LIT wont dip

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

building something for the green chain on @stateofblocks, a small preview 🪶

soon

[MCG @MCGlive]

Today on MCG

@Stateofblocks w/@that1618guy

Highlights :n ex Delphi analyst and founder of State of Blocks, a trading community that shares setups and research.

Highlights Include:

00:58 - Marcus's Background
03:24 - Relative strength is only relative until the fall catches up
07:03 - @AnthropicAI IPO could drain liquidity like @SpaceX
10:10 - Add risk early and cut risk late
11:21 - Crypto has no passive bid so the marginal buyer rules
11:54 - Calls the Bitcoin low in at $60K
14:21 - $NEAR at $1.80 vs $4 and fundamentals follow price
16:36 - Bitcoin Google searches explain price
18:13 - HYPE at $70 with everyone talking was the warning
20:16 - What gets retail back into crypto?
25:23 - Binance hack of $6B with half frozen
26:00 - Real test is the bank run
28:36 - Bybit handled its hack like a masterclass
31:04 - Bids $HYPE and @Lighter_xyz as the marginal buyer returns
32:50 - Bullish Robinhood Chain after 70-80% pullbacks
33:14 - The trench special bids at a 78% pullback
33:34 - Likes $ORBIO for real revenue
35:05 - Priors dev call at a $2M market cap
43:19 - $700K rewards post was an overreaction
48:36 - Too many copy paste launchpads
49:18 - $BUN is different with AI market making
54:13 - Four agentic finance picks
57:19 - Loves $HOOKR and $STONKBROKER
1:00:06 - HYPE attention and why Kinetic is the beta play
1:03:03 - State of Blocks Discord

[stateofblocks @stateofblocks]

@that1618guy full site: https://t.co/FSoG41P9K4

[stateofblocks @stateofblocks]

$BTC participants still arent as aligned on the long term view, but conditions are conducive for cooperative behavior to emerge (buy low now, sell high later)

we are currently still in a Fragile Cooperation regime, which also explains the lackluster price action we have been seeing these past few weeks of chop

as long as CPS (Composite Patience Score; measures the eagerness of participants to cooperate) stays low, fragility remains. however, the longer that BTC stays in this regime without breaking, the higher likelihood that cooperative behavior will take hold

more on this via the BTC Game Theory model live on site

[stateofblocks @stateofblocks]

https://t.co/FSoG41P9K4

[stateofblocks @stateofblocks]

Action log covers the status for all markets (BTC / Alts / Trenches)

$BTC flipped into Cooperation Sep 21 and has been holding in this regime for 30 days

10 more days before one of our model flips bullish

[stateofblocks @stateofblocks]

data can be found here
https://t.co/cUivI8LHUR

[stateofblocks @stateofblocks]

The Grift Index dropped from Extraction -> Frothy

the grift metric currently reads +1.48 which is still at elevated reads but has pulled back decently from the Oct 2nd highs of +2.63

interestingly most celebrity coins on record launched right about here

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

Starting a weekly State of The Market, using @stateofblocks data

as of this Oct 18 weekly close:

BTC → leans adding risk, low conviction (4 wks)
Alts → trending, 80% above their weekly 9/21
Trenches → still extraction season, but draining

https://t.co/Y1dGTu3LhF

[R2D2 @R2D2zen]

If you are under 20, you are being told to “be the next Kimchi”, or else you will be permanently underclass.

This is fake and simply not true.

Here are 6 people you should study and, ideally, get as mentors to teach you that there is more than one way to be successful in life.

@BigNillCollect

This guy is an absolute machine. Not only has he worked at some of the top crypto companies to date, but few know that back in January, he was expecting a newborn while also losing his job. The bounce back? Most people would have collapsed, not him.

Fast forward to today, and he has hosted and run one of the major events at Token2049 this month, while doing top work at Blockworks. He is also educating normies on TikTok daily, not by telling them to buy shitcoins, but by explaining how markets work. Get him to teach you networking, BD and people skills.

@Tuteth_

I have had the pleasure of working with him for over a month recently. The amount of creativity he delivers daily is something I have not seen very often. He is never afraid to experiment and push ideas forward. Even when an iteration fails, he gets back up and keeps working. An absolute beast and a family guy who will not take no for an answer. Get him to mentor you.

@that1618guy

There is a theory that only a handful of people can move tokens on CT. I watched him move tokens with a single article that dropped at the right time and went viral. He speaks the languages of macro and the trenches as if they were the same. You rarely find that combination. There is another guy around who calls himself a wizard of macro while dumping $20K mc shitters on his followers from side wallets. 1618guy shows that you can build up skills, make money while maintaining humility. Study him, join his Discord and learn how markets work.

@OxSimpleFarmer

I have called him big brain several times already. He has proved this year that being early and visionary can pay off big time, including starting new trends and metas. But there is more to him than that. He cares about morals, understands regulatory arbitrage and puts that knowledge into practice. He is not your average dude deploying bundles on pumpfun and calling himself a successful dev. If you want to become a builder, study his moves and get him to mentor you.

@justinbebis

One of the most charismatic CEOs I have met recently, and I am learning from him myself. He has been on a journey of accumulating knowledge by doing things, not just talking about them. When it comes to showing off his nerd side, showcasing character, being charismatic and selling a vision, he scores highly across the board. These are traits that can help you succeed if you want to start your own company or project. Study the guy and get him to mentor you.

@MCGlive

This is a collective of great people running daily live events on CT. What makes them special is how they shine a light on real builders and projects that are actually innovating onchain. They do not sell you the casino dream or the idea of becoming some wannabe celebrity trader. Great source of entertainment, but with much higher quality of actionable insights.

There are plenty of valuable people in this space who are amazing first and successful at what they do second.

Find them, learn from them, and you can get much further in life than by simply trying to become the next “high-end wannabe trader”.

Good luck.

[stateofblocks @stateofblocks]

@uhonyn @that1618guy @Eli5defi @ponsdotfamily @DefiLlama Thx will look into this

[stateofblocks @stateofblocks]

Open the Grift Index

https://t.co/bDBV0jcJNJ

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

Open the Grift Index

[Justin 🅿️ebis 🎀 @justinbebis]

If the main characters of this run are people like @that1618guy and @AvgJoesCrypto then we are in for the most beautiful bull cycle ever.

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

Grift Index helps us see when its most profitable for max extraction

knowing where we stand in this phase can help influence onchain positioning esp if there's signs of froth buildup

we're still in extraction but barely at the lower bounds now. looking for this to flip soon

[stateofblocks @stateofblocks]

Full site refresh over at https://t.co/vLRom6tnte

> live market reads from our models, updated daily
> action log of crypto eco (btc/alts/trenches)
> free dashboards: BBWP screener, 9/21 cross, Grift Index, $PONS terminal
> free membership access via Discord

+more to come

[that1618guy @that1618guy]

Going full time on @stateofblocks and the discord which means my time at Delphi has wrapped 🫡

big thanks to the Delphi folks - some of the best minds in the space and my work is sharper for it

been building toward this for awhile now & excited to go all in. plenty more coming