Statistics Blog

Probability & Statistics with a focus on Monte Carlo simulations & epistemology: podcast #Stats #RStats #Statistics #Probability

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

Ockham’s razor is aspirational metaphysics, as in, “Wouldn’t it be nice if all of reality could be modeled with tidy, tractable equations?”

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

Roundup of links to my recent writings and podcast episodes related to probability, stats, and epistemology:

https://t.co/8i03tSBiXO

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

@Jpz_132 Sorry but not sure I understand the question. Do you have a specific model w/parameters you can provide along with the description of what you're trying to determine?

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

@ScottAdamsSays I made exactly this point in an interview with Andrew Gelman in 2020:

For any controversial subject, our prior beliefs now completely determine our posteriors.

Gelman strongly disagreed, but he was wrong. @StatModeling

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

Not sure yet what to make of this anaylsis...

https://t.co/tGFiKlTFyb

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

👀
https://t.co/aHSZbd5QIf

#datamanipulation

[Hans Mahncke @HansMahncke]

Overnight, IMDB fortified Fauci's overall rating from 1.6 to 5.8 (unfortunately they forgot to fortify the components of the new score).

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

A podcast episode about Pascal's Wager and it's implications for today:

https://t.co/9rb9UjEq8B

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

This is looking sadly more and more accurate as time goes by. Here's everyone's model island for excellent response 15 months on, in data and liberty:

https://t.co/QLWyZZquQk

https://t.co/XMtPxuejO7

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

To be as clear as possible: The fight against #Corona is like a 15-round prize fight. Lockdowns are socially extreme, costly, and hard to enforce. It's like recommending your boxer throw 50 punches in round 1. They may be up at the end of that round, but what happens after that?

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

The data are fake. The fear is real.

[Michael Malice @michaelmalice]

The average person's mechanism for determining a truth claim is simply whether it gives them a positive emotional response.

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

@brodriguesco Yes! It absolutely does.

It doesn't *prove* it, it's evidence *for* it.

And even worse if the correlation is negative. As in, we know our anti-tiger spray works, even though attacks went up, because there would have been even more without it🤦‍♂️

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

A gentle reminder that all scientific progress rests on recognizing that things that work... work.

This may seem obvious or tautological, but I keep seeing people talk about supposedly useful interventions in the absence of real-world correlations. No correlation → no causation

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

Estimating the number of flies in an apartment

https://t.co/HFZjh1XEIS

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

All science begins with anecdote. All science begins with correlation.

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

For the past year, Science has meant bad predictions by zealots and partisans, used to justify extreme measures which needlessly destroyed millions of lives, while benefiting the already rich and powerful.

Also, you are not allowed to question The Science.

#truth #science

[Neil deGrasse Tyson @neiltyson]

The good thing about Science is that it’s true, whether or not you believe in it.

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

What are the most important statistical ideas of the past 50 years? @StatModeling

https://t.co/2ACYj1Huk1

[Lionel Page @page_eco]

Everybody should know about Berkson’s paradox.

👉 When two positive traits are (spuriously) negatively correlated, in a population *selected on these traits*.

Examples: 1/
“Handsome men are jerks.”
via @anecdatally

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

If it’s not clear why, imagine a decision table with one column for each factor, and one row for each decision that leads to. If there is no row where the outcome is changed by flipping the value of that factor, then you can remove that column entirely. It’s not a factor at all.

[Statistics Blog @statisticsblog]

Note: Something can’t be a factor in a decision making process unless it is sometimes The Decisive Factor. This is a deductively true as a matter of logic, not opinion.