Mauro Solo

Tweeting about football insights, statistical trends, betting picks, and interesting facts. Push on 🔔 to receive instant alerts.

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

Argentina. Huracan v Belgrano

Huracan -0,75 (Asian Handicap): 1.8 (Asian bookies) — 1% / 1 unit

The visitors are rotating their squad between Copa Sudamericana matches.

https://t.co/9nw3mdjktJ

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

The Premier League has kicked off, and here are the players who racked up the most cards last season:

• Senesi (Bournemouth) - 13
• Lemina (Wolves) - 12
• Gordon (Newcastle) - 12
• Caicedo (Chelsea), Tarkowski (Everton), Gomes (Wolves), Álvarez (West Ham), Havertz (Arsenal) - 11 each

Top players by fouls committed:

• Gomes (Wolves) - 66
• Díaz (Liverpool), Kulusevski (Spurs) - 54 each

Players who get fouled the most:

• Guimarães (Newcastle) - 108 (!)
• Jordan Ayew - 94
• Kudus (West Ham) - 75
• Maddison (Spurs) - 74

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

Player Impact

🐢 Mbappé at PSG accounts for:

•35% of all goals
•27% of shots on target
•22% of total shots

He also had the highest shot accuracy (45%) and averaged 4.67 shots per 90 minutes.

The question now is how PSG will cope with his replacement and whether they have anyone in the squad who can fill his role. Interestingly, bookmakers’ odds don’t seem to fully reflect his departure yet, especially when it comes to shot statistics.

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

Opta has released its season prediction, based on 10,000 simulations run by their “supercomputer”.

There’s an 82.2% chance that City will win the title and only a 0.2% chance for Chelsea.

Only five clubs are in the running for the championship, with 99.7% of the odds going to three of them: City, Arsenal, and Liverpool.

According to the portal, all the newly promoted teams will be relegated, and the computer sees no chance of City dropping out of the top four.

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

I have to admit, Djokovic is the king of tennis!

A phenomenal athlete and a mental fortress.

The only title he was missing, and he chased it his entire career. He finally got it… at 37 years old!

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

I believe that competitions between trans people and ladies are unfeasible.

If modern politics insists on recognizing a third gender, there should be separate Olympic Games for trans individuals.

PS: There are only two sexes in the world and in nature: male and female.

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

🇳🇴 Norway.

Brann is one of the top teams for corners. They often exceed the total significantly, especially at home. They take a lot of corners themselves and allow a fair number for their opponents.

As a result, their average total is 13.24, with over 11.5 corners in 13 out of 17 games.

Since the trend is on the over, you can often get better odds live than pre-match. However, with Brann, you might not have time to react, as quick corners are common.

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

Additionally,

These teams have a history of intense matches, with 10 red cards in their last 8 encounters, and only 1 match without a red card.

The referee isn't the strictest, but he does know how to hand out red cards.

The most interesting part is the odds. Some bookmakers offer odds of 3.3-3.5 for a red card to be shown.

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

The screenshot shows yellow cards in head-to-head matches between Sporting and Porto since the 2017/18 season.

Sporting has 10 wins, 7 draws, and only 1 loss in yellow cards, indicating a significant difference that’s likely not a coincidence.

The match will be officiated by referee João Pinheiro, who has overseen 7 head-to-head matches between Sporting and Porto since the 2017/18 season.

In those matches, Sporting has 6 wins in yellow cards, while Porto has just 1.

Currently, a handicap of 0 on Sporting to win the yellow card count is priced at 1.87, and Sporting not to lose on yellow cards is priced at 1.61.

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

The screenshot shows yellow cards in head-to-head matches between Sporting and Porto since the 2017/18 season.

Sporting has 10 wins, 7 draws, and only 1 loss in yellow cards, indicating a significant difference that’s likely not a coincidence.

The match will be officiated by referee João Pinheiro, who has overseen 7 head-to-head matches between Sporting and Porto since the 2017/18 season.

In those matches, Sporting has 6 wins in yellow cards, while Porto has just 1.

Currently, a handicap of 0 on Sporting to win the yellow card count is priced at 1.87, and Sporting not to lose on yellow cards is priced at 1.61.

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

This could be the last match between two legends.

It’s their 60th match against each other, with an incredibly close record of 30:29 in favor of Djokovic.

Don’t miss it; it’s a must-watch!

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

Stromsgodset is one of the top teams in the Eliteserien for corner kicks, averaging 12.4 corners per game. In 15 games, they have had 13 matches with over 10.5 total corners.

Odd is an average team, but they have hit the over 10.5 corners mark in 4 of their last 6 matches against top corner-kick teams.

In their first-round match, there were 15 corners.

Pinnacle and other bookies are offering odds of 1.74 for over 10.5 corners.

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

Russia. Zenit St. Petersburg v Krylya Sovetov Samara

Fouls Under 19.5: 1.76 (1xbet & alternatives) — 1% / 1 unit

Teams do not make many fouls in face-to-face matches. Last season, the teams played 4 times: 15,16,15 and 16 fouls.

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

Here’s another interesting trend I found regarding cards in the Columbus vs. Charlotte match:

The screenshot shows statistics for yellow cards: Columbus at home and Charlotte away.

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

🐢

Is it just me, or is 32+ goals for Mbappe in his first La Liga season a bit much?

He spent 8 seasons in the weaker French league, 7 of them with PSG, and only in the 2018/19 season did he manage to score more than 31 goals (33).

The last Real Madrid player to score 32+ goals in a La Liga season was Ronaldo. But that was way back in the 2015/16 season (35 goals).

Three years ago, in the 2021/22 Ligue 1 season, the odds for Messi to score over 30.5 goals were exactly the same. In the end, he only scored 6 goals that season and 16 goals in the 2022/23 season.

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

Interesting trend:

In 5 out of the last 6 head-to-head matches between these teams, at least one red card has been shown.

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

ATP. Bastad. Norrie C. vs Nadal R.

Nadal R. to win: 1.53 (Bet365) - 1 unit / 1%

Undoubtedly, the brilliant career of Rafael Nadal is nearing its end. However, I wouldn’t count him out just yet, especially on his favorite clay surface.

Here are some observations that led me to choose this bet:

- Rafa defeated Borg today. I watched the entire match and it was clear that Rafa was playing with a comfortable margin, and he could step it up when needed. Borg didn’t have a single break point on Rafa’s serve. Nadal handled the match with experience and confidence.

- Nadal’s last match was a first-round loss to Zverev at Roland Garros. But there are several factors to note: firstly, Zverev was in one of his best forms at Roland Garros, which is confirmed by his reaching the final and the five-set battle with Alcaraz (who is currently outstanding).

- Rafa lacked match practice going into the match with Zverev. He needed to get into rhythm, feel the court and the ball, and gain some confidence. Unfortunately, he faced an in-form Zverev right in the first round. Despite this, Nadal broke Zverev twice and was very close to taking the second set. In reality, this match gave hope for Nadal’s future victories, considering his lack of practice. The score was 3-0, but it didn’t reflect a one-sided match.

- While everyone else, including Norrie, was playing on grass, Rafa was training hard exclusively on clay, preparing for what might be the main and possibly the final tournament of his career - the Olympic Games.

- In the match against Borg, Nadal’s stats were very solid: 5 aces, 74% first serve in, 82% points won on the first serve, and only 5 unforced errors.

Norrie is certainly dangerous, but I highly doubt he can defeat Nadal. The old bull is still in the game.

The odds on Bet365 are currently 1.53 - I'm confident the odds will drop closer to the match, and Pinnacle will offer the match with odds no higher than 1.45. At this price, it’s worth betting.

By the way, Pinnacle still considers Nadal a strong contender. Nadal is among the top five favorites to win at the Olympics (see screenshot) with odds of 9.78.

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

A bit late, but here it is: Spain are the EURO 2024 champions. And in my opinion, it's absolutely deserved.

Throughout the entire tournament, England generated 6.43 xG, which is less than Croatia's 7.1. Interestingly, Croatia got knocked out in the group stage, while England made it to the final.

An astonishing fact: since May 2001, Spanish teams have played in 27 major finals (Champions League, Europa League, World Cup, European Championship) and won every single one of them.

This winning streak has now lasted 23 years. The last time they lost a final was in the 2000/2001 Champions League, when Valencia was defeated by Bayern Munich (and even then, it was in a penalty shootout).

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

In the photo:

Jesús Navas winning against Gareth Southgate in 2006.

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

🏆 History of EURO Finals:

•The last two EURO finals ended in a draw during regular time, as did the 2022 World Cup final.

•“Both teams to score” happened in only one of the last 5 EURO finals (the most recent one).

•Over 2.5 goals was hit only once in the last 10 EURO finals (Spain 4:0 Italy in 2012). Before that, the last time this bet won was in 1980, back when teams like the USSR, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia were still competing.

•Spain won their last 2 EURO finals (2008 and 2012), while England lost their only final. However, there’s good news for England: this is the third instance of a team reaching consecutive finals in history, and in previous cases, they won the tournament. Plus, there’s the Harry Kane factor.

[Mauro Solo @statoolian]

Trends

England is the European team with the lowest number of corners. Southgate’s approach affects this aspect of the game as well🙃. They rarely allow opponents to take corners (an average of 2 per game), but they don’t take many themselves either.

In the last 45 matches, the average total corners for England is 6.64. Under corners hit in 43 out of 45 matches, with under 9.5 corners in 39 out of 45, under 8.5 corners in 35 out of 45, under 7.5 corners in 29 out of 45, and under 6.5 corners in 24 out of 45.

This means that in more than half of their games, there were 6 or fewer corners! And in almost 80%, there were 8 or fewer.

At the current EURO, the under corners bet has comfortably hit in 5 out of 6 games (with one push). For the final, the line is set at under 8.5 at 1.6, which is fairly accurate. With Spain, it’s more dependent on the flow of the game.

However, it has already been announced that Southgate will stay on regardless of the outcome, so this trend can be used in the future.