Only ~5% of SpaceX stock is floating right now
~95% $SPCX is still locked
Most don’t realize bearish pressure often comes later, when insiders finally get liquidity
Unlock schedule below ⬇️
Almost nobody looks at this chart… but it’s one of my favorite ways to spot when a move may be running on fumes.
This is a simple 60‑minute line chart of high yield vs SPY. I use it to track divergences between “smart money” (bonds) and “dumb money” (equities).
The last major signal was at the bottom, high yield quietly started putting in a higher low while stocks were still puking. That helped flag the turn.
Fast‑forward to now: $JNK and $HYG are not confirming this latest push in SPY. Stocks are pressing higher, high yield is stalling out.
That doesn’t guarantee a top, but when "Smart Money" refuses to play along, I take note.
New all-time highs and nobody is paying attention to this.
Top chart is the Value Line Geometric Index. For those that don't know, it's an equally weighted index that tracks roughly 1,700 stocks.
Bottom chart is the S&P 500. I'm highlighting the times where the SPX makes a new high but the $XVG does not confirm. As you can see, it's not a great sign, these divergences eventually resolve themselves in some way.
This is not a crash call, but it would be nice to see more participation as we just cracked into new all-time highs.
Nobody is talking about the 12 month rate of change on oil right now. They should be.
WTI crude's ROC(12) just spiked to over 91%. Let me show you what happened every other time it did this.
- 1987 Crash.
- 1990 Crash.
- Dot Com Bust.
- 2008 Financial Crisis.
- 2022 Bear Market.
Every single spike of this magnitude on the 12 month rate of change has led to something breaking. Every. Single. Time.
Do you really think this time we just walk away unscathed?
This is your warning shot.
One of the (many) reasons why I think Bitcoin is going to fall below the April 2025 lows and continue to grind lower is because that's already what Bitcoin has done when priced in the S&P 500.
This is BTC/SPY.
As far as I'm concerned, it's an important leading indicator.