Stealth Analytics

Methodology-first polling and election analytics with a deep focus on Arizona. Public analysis here. Campaign work at

[Stealth Analytics @StealthPolling]

New AZ GOP primary poll from Stealth Analytics — a look at the July Republican primary electorate.

Full topline and crosstabs linked in comments below.

[Andy Biggs @andybiggs4az]

Early voting starts with ballots going out on Wednesday, June 24th.

Election Day is Tuesday, July 21st.

No excuses.

We need every Republican voting early in the primary and then bringing 10 of their friends to vote.

Let’s win BIGGLY.

#GoBiggsOrGoHome

[Stealth Analytics @StealthPolling]

@tylerbowyer Thank you for featuring out poll!

Looking at Emerson's poll 6 months ago on this same race, They had:

Biggs 50%
Robson 17%
Schweikert: 8%

Since Robson dropped out, our poll found that a 1/3 of her voters moved to Biggs.

The rest have still not found a home.

[Stealth Analytics @StealthPolling]

@IAPolls2022 Thank you for featuring out poll!

Looking at Emerson's poll 6 months ago on this same race, They had:

Biggs 50%
Robson 17%
Schweikert: 8%

Since Robson dropped out, our poll found that a 1/3 of her voters moved to Biggs.

The rest have still not found a home.

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

📊 Arizona Governor GOP Primary

🟥 Andy Biggs: 55%
🟥 David Schweikert: 9%
🟥 Scott Neely: 1%
🟥 Ken Miceli: 1%

Stealth Analytics | 5/13-15 | 1,000 LV
https://t.co/ZhT6OQsAQO

[Stealth Analytics @StealthPolling]

@waldenpatriot @Rando51865268 @VoteKThompson @votenickmyers @waldenpatriot We will include the ACC election on our general election study in August

[Stealth Analytics @StealthPolling]

AZGOP Superintendent Primary

Horne leads Yee by 13 — a third still movable. Both well-known to GOP voters.

Tom Horne: 40%
Kimberly Yee: 27%
Undecided: 33%

Stealth Analytics poll of 1,100 likely AZGOP primary voters, text-to-web fielded May 13-15. ±3% MOE

[Stealth Analytics @StealthPolling]

@votenickmyers @Rando51865268 @VoteKThompson @votenickmyers We will include the ACC election on our general election study in August

[Stealth Analytics @StealthPolling]

@Rando51865268 @VoteKThompson @votenickmyers Correct. We did not poll the Arizona Corporation Commission Race.

[Stealth Analytics @StealthPolling]

There isn't a single AZ GOP subgroup that opposes designating Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations.

Not by age. Not by region. Not by faction. Not even Republicans who disapprove of Trump.

95% support. 86% strongly.

HCR 2055 wins with Republicans wholesale.

[Stealth Analytics @StealthPolling]

Trump net approval in the AZGOP primary electorate:

♀️Women 26-55: +80
♂️Men 26-55: +54

Republican women — especially younger ones — are more pro-Trump than the men.

Among AZ GOP primary voters 26-55, women show stronger Trump support than men — by 26 points.

[Stealth Analytics @StealthPolling]

The Superintendent race is the only down ballot primary voters actually know:

33% undecided — Superintendent
58% undecided — AG
68% undecided — SOS
72% undecided — Treasurer

Two sitting statewide officeholders. Voters already have a base opinion of both candidates.

[Stealth Analytics @StealthPolling]

AZGOP Superintendent, by region:

🟠CD1: Horne 13+
🟠CD2: Horne 16+
🟠CD3: Horne 15+
🟠CD4: Horne 9+
🟠CD5: Horne 13+
🟠CD6: Horne 17+
🟠CD7: Horne 6+
🟠CD8: Horne 10+
🟠CD9: Horne 11+
(Directional)

Only statewide Republican primary race where an incumbent exists.

[Stealth Analytics @StealthPolling]

CD1 looks different from the rest of Arizona's GOP.

Border: 24% (lowest of any CD)
Inflation: 31%

CD9 goes the other way — 38% border.

For anyone modeling competitive-district persuasion, that's a real targeting signal.

[Stealth Analytics @StealthPolling]

New AZ GOP primary poll — most important issue facing Arizona:

🚧 Border & immigration: 30%
💰 Inflation & cost of living: 26%
🗳️ Election integrity: 18%
💧 Water & drought: 12%

Three-issue race at the top, with water hanging on as a regional fourth.

[Stealth Analytics @StealthPolling]

Younger GOP primary voters are an inflation-first electorate.

26-55: 37% inflation 25% border
56-61: 27% inflation, 32% border
62+: 23% inflation, 31% border

Men 26-55 hit 41% on inflation — the highest demographic cell in the survey.