The latest edition of The Process is now available in electronic form. Paper editions in Amazon will be available later. A lot of important new research this year, along with the SGP and standings history you're used to.
@jimmytoddy What are you seeing? ROS projections might move based on the ballparks remaining for a player but if you're seeing weird stuff please let me know.
Terrific work from @RosenJordanBlum. Congrats to @steamerpro
Note for ZiPS/PECOTA their "component" based ERA is better than their "official" forecasted-ERA. Check the article.
Also note BABIP is almost useless to forecast, leading to overfits
https://t.co/myzpox1Rt3
@srsBryzness Yes, it turned out that the previous run had been with one day left in the season and the Twins final game was at Colorado so their rest-of-season BABIPs were inflated. Should be fixed now. Thanks for alerting me!
@srsBryzness Thanks, I'll re-run the code in post-season mode and see if this issue goes away. I think this is a result of projecting rest-of-season when there is no season left.
Annual reminder/summary on why @Razzball/@Steamerpro projections should be a key ingredient in your fantasy projections breakfast:
1) It uses our (okay my) playing time estimates which have tested very well - especially pre-March (https://t.co/Dzt2m0hAbw)
2) QS/SV/HLD (cont)
@reach_baseball I think the argument that it should be higher than 155 is that he's averaged 153 over his career when he's been 19-23 yrs old. He'll be 24 and we'd expect more improvement from age 19-23 performance to age 24 performance.
@DSzymborski@DarrenSechrist Sorry, I've been (mostly) off Twitter for a while. An official Steamer should show up for him on FG tomorrow. We'll be in the same ballpark:
ZiPS: .305/.372/.489, 51 BB, 62 SO
Steamer: .298/.388/.479, 66 BB, 56 SO
@smada_bb@chadyoung@EightyGrade Sorry folks, I haven't checked twitter in a few days! These projections are preliminary at this point and particularly the PA projections will move around quite a bit. I think the FG depth charts have each team getting a full season of PA based on players currently on the
@smada_bb We’re planning to make adjustments for the shift changes (although I haven’t worked out how to do this yet). I hadn’t thought about adjusting for the pitch clock.