Rollercoaster

Nomen est omen. Global investor. Looking for wide margin of safety. Accustomed to heavy volatility. Lifelong learner. Not investment advice.

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

Time to close a small position in $FBIOP. Monetization of assets has brought this preferred stock back up from entry point of $5.2. Just shy of 300% return for a 20 month holding period is not too shabby. Thank you @chaka23121 and @LulevTrading for the idea and thesis!

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

Started scooping up some $FBIOP. When preferred dividend gets reinstated, share price should move back to $17 range. You essentially get a 42% div yield on cost basis for buying and holding this (risky) stock. Looks too cheap to me. Insiders also added recently.

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

Unfortunately, and I have to point this out, again no $NURS.v Q&A in the cc...it really seems mgmt is afraid of (my) questions! For a company intending to move to Nasdaq, these are very bad optics!

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

$NURS.v results came in as expected with $25M in Q1 revs, and net income of ~$2.6M. More importantly, the profit-sharing agreement with $VST.cn is active and is finally visible in the MD&A of HTI. Economic value is there, only time needed before it is translated in stock price.

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

'At least $150M' $NURS revenue guidance could translate into 25, 35, 45 and $55M in revs for the four quarters, for a total of $160M this year. Say 15% net margins in Q4 and annualised would bring this to $33M exit-run rate earnings, i.e. 8x P/E at $5 share price.

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

@RIPIZ2025 My read is that 'rejected' implies the current outstanding amount of circa $19M gets reduced to the greater of 1Y and 15% of contract value (max three years), which is this case would amount to ~$2.76M.

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

$FNCHQ stalking horse deadline and entire sale process is being delayed once again. Unclear to me if this is because of no interest from prospective buyers for a stalking horse role, or if the OpenBiome hearing is necessitating it. But more time for the judge to issue a decision!

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

The more I look into $FNCH/ $FNCHQ, the more I like the current set-up. Sale timeline is very clear and short (two months), can be extended/terminated at any time (e.g. in case the post-trial motions verdict finally comes out), 100+ possible buyers.

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

@RIPIZ2025 Lease got rejected which is great for shareholders. Stalking horse deadline was moved as mentioned in my tweet on May 22nd. The 29th filing didn't state any new info.

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

@charlesbhutch If one of $NURS.v's first VSDHone clients, DripBAR Direct, has 3550 websites (71 locations x 50 states), but mid-December 2025 licensees only amount to 2.5K, that raises questions. Maybe that's just me. I believe the co is doing well and am very long. But questions need answers.

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

@charlesbhutch I'm not questioning the 11K number that was disclosed today. In fact, my own data and Byron's amazing report have uncovered a lot of the current licensees of $NURS.v. The question above is one I've had for a long time and wanted to ask on a Q&A, which wasn't allowed today.

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

Honestly not sure what to think about the webinar. A lot of talk about the evolution in the industry and one 'pumpy' slide on the new number of licensees at the end of Q1 2026. $NURS not fielding any questions at the end of the call was not appreciated by investors I'd imagine!

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

Did $NURS.v restate their licensee recognition methodology to get to 11K? My vibe coded python tool found 3550 licensees for DripBAR Direct alone (71 locations x 50 states). This client probably only accounted for 50 licensees in 2025 (because 'only' 2.5K at YE2025)! 🤨

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

Four months after an already unnecessary convertible offering ("big opp in next 30-60 days" didn't materialize), $NURS.v is AGAIN diluting, this time 5.56M shares in total, while already cashed up and presumably CF positive with 700K+ VSDHone orders/month.

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

$FNCH / $FNCHQ has net operating losses (NOLs) that could be monetized during a sale, even is there is change of control. In this case, the annual NOL cap would amount to 3.58% of the final selling price. This alone is still potentially worth $2-3M or ~$1.5 per share.

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

The more I look into $FNCH/ $FNCHQ, the more I like the current set-up. Sale timeline is very clear and short (two months), can be extended/terminated at any time (e.g. in case the post-trial motions verdict finally comes out), 100+ possible buyers.

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

@Mike10947310 @BATMongoose @WallStWary @TLS_Invests I wonder if $FNCH can 'leave' Chapter 11 once the lease has been rejected, or if they have to go through with the Bidding Procedure Motion and run the risk of having a low floor price that they can't escape. All in all they are forced to sell here.

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

Oct 2025: Ferring is forcing themselves to sell REBYOTA which must be great news for Finch! Stock + 20%
March 2026: Finch is forcing itself to sell itself through court-supervised sale under Chapter 11. Stock -40%

Man what do I love public markets! $FNCH

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

@Mike10947310 @BATMongoose @WallStWary @TLS_Invests I wonder if $FNCH can 'leave' Chapter 11 once the lease has been rejected, or if they have to go through with the Bidding Procedure Motion and run the risk of having a low floor price that they can't escape. All in all they are forced to sell here.

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

@Mike10947310 @BATMongoose @WallStWary @TLS_Invests I wonder if $FNCH can 'leave' Chapter 11 once the lease has been rejected, or if they have to go through with the Bidding Procedure Motion and run the risk of having a low floor price that they can't escape. All in all they are forced to sell here.

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

War in Iran seems far from over and the systemic risks from the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz have yet to fully reverberate through the macro financial feedback loop. I have raised cash as this feels like the safest course of action at the present time.

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

Claude Code >>> ChatGPT for any vibe coding tools you want to build in Python!

[JohannesBorgen @jeuasommenulle]

I've finally decided to extensively use Claude for pro stuff

I can confidently say we're going back the world of Mme de Lafayette

The most important skill will be the art of conversation

Except it won't be conversation at court but with your AI. The rest will become irrelevant

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

@NestBetter $NURS.v essentially guided the Maxim estimates, a bit in line with what they said on q3 cc. I'd be surprised if q1 revs aren't materially higher than $28M, and 2026 revs probably closer to $200-$250M, with exit run-rate in December above $300M.

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

And surprise, surprise, $LODE is diluting again at terms undefined in their press release. Bulls will always tell you the bull case, reality for the equity holders tells you a different story…

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

@Lars57360069 @NestBetter @CDe_Gasperis The reason Comstock is not up much in the past year is because mgmt diluted SHs by 30% a few months ago, and have a massive ATM in place. Why would you bid this up to then get smashed? I know so many people who would buy big amounts of stock if silver assets were sold! *If*

[Rollercoaster @steep_slopes]

@Lars57360069 @NestBetter @CDe_Gasperis The reason Comstock is not up much in the past year is because mgmt diluted SHs by 30% a few months ago, and have a massive ATM in place. Why would you bid this up to then get smashed? I know so many people who would buy big amounts of stock if silver assets were sold! *If*