Steno Research

Your source for actionable and independent macro economic and geopolitical research. Check our websites for insights, model portfolio, trade alerts and more!

[Steno Research @stenodata]

A rapid-fire summary of the...

TOP 7 GEOPOLITICAL RISKS IN 2025 (that you probably haven't heard of) 🔥

Have we missed anything?

#Thailand #Iran #Mali #Venezuela #Greenland #EU #DebtCrisis #Geopolitics

[Steno Research @stenodata]

We have compiled some of THE charts to watch as we enter the new year with the Trump presidency, Fed flip-flopping and high equity market concentration posing risks to markets.

The chart-pack can be accessed below: https://t.co/KN0dGe5Yhe

[Steno Research @stenodata]

Maker's transition to rebrand as Sky, and to shift from its Dai stablecoin to USDS, heavily reduces its profitability. However, we remain highly optimistic about this change, as we believe it will drive significant growth for Maker.

You can access the full note at: https://t.co/ElOFSc5cEX

[Steno Research @stenodata]

We have a special free macro nugget up on our site with a primer on the liquidity outlook for the rest of the year

https://t.co/X3E4pyYryI

Remember to subscribe to our free newsletter for more updates on all things macro and markets: https://t.co/8IeqaYx7XK

[Real Vision @RealVision]

It’s a GUNGHO SUMMER! ☀️

🤝 Welcome back to #MacroMondays with .@AndreasSteno and .@RosenvoldGeo

🧵Key takeaways from today’s show:

1/ 🌐 Andreas predicts a positive market outlook with #inflation dropping and liquidity increasing despite initial market resistance.

2/ 📉 US CPI report showed a soft print, indicating deflation. Energy prices and durable goods dropped, but public transportation costs surprisingly fell, raising questions about market reactions. #CPI #Deflation

3/ 🚗 Used car prices declined, transportation services saw a 0.5% drop, and airline fares decreased by 3.5%. These factors contributed to the overall deflationary trend. #InflationData

4/ 📈 Despite positive macro indicators, market reactions were mixed. Steno suggests markets were already positioned for a soft CPI, causing initial negative reactions. #MarketTrends

5/ 📊 Look out for an insurance rate cut by the Fed in September, as inflation falls below projections and unemployment rises. Powell's recent communications support this outlook. #FedPolicy #InterestRates

6/ 🚢 Shipping woes continue! Due to storms, container ships diverted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding to existing delays and capacity issues. Rising freight rates are expected to impact prices. #GlobalTrade #Shipping

7/ 🇨🇳 China's economic dynamics show strong exports but weak local consumption. No rush for fiscal stimulus asthe export sector remains strong. Focus on long-term middle-class growth. #ChinaEconomy

8/ 💰 Intervention in Asian currencies was predicted, focusing on the dollar vs. Asian FX. Steno sees softness on the dollar side, suggesting a potential trend reversal. #Forex #AsianMarkets

9/ 🥇 Precious metals like gold and silver have been hedges against strong dollar vs. local currency risks in Asia. A weaker dollar could reduce this natural bid for precious metals. #Commodities #Gold

10/ 📉 @RealVision's portfolio strategy includes short positions in silver and copper, long positions in consumer discretionary, and short US dollar vs. Latin American FX. #InvestmentStrategy

🔥 For more in-depth analysis, join the Real Vision community for FREE https://t.co/2Bq8cQx3fM

🔗 Check out the full episode on our YouTube channel. [LINK IN COMMENT]

[Steno Research @stenodata]

We trade in our crypto portfolio, adding a token with tremendous potential. The token generates substantial net income and stands to benefit significantly from increased Real-World Assets (RWA) activity.

Read the note in full: https://t.co/Cfvp0mRRf1

[Steno Research @stenodata]

When it rains, it pours... Let's see if this spills over into goods inflation. Consider buying your christmas presents now?

Subcribe to our free macro nugget for updates on markets and macro

https://t.co/8IeqaYx7XK

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

Copper price action remains heavy in contrast to the consensus expectations. Are you paying attention?

More -> https://t.co/x0GUFuPKnk

[Real Vision @RealVision]

🔵 Will the democrats get rid of Joe Biden?

@AndreasSteno x @RosenvoldGeo

Full discussion https://t.co/MlLo6URExT 👈

#MacroMonday

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

Another smoking hot Services CPI number from the UK, way above consensus but close to our nowcast

BoE is still caught between a rock and a hard place. I don't see them cutting this year.

More: https://t.co/Mcmvoq2hD1

[Steno Research @stenodata]

Egypt, which had been exporting LNG since 2019, is now set to return as a buyer and plans to make its largest purchase of LNG in years to avert an energy shortage.

Watch out for this to have a global effect on gas markets!

[Mads Eberhardt @MadsEberhardt]

The surge in U.S. liquidity starts today.

As a matter of fact, we expect crypto to follow suit. Among other positive factors, there is simply no macroeconomic condition that benefits crypto more than increased liquidity.

Full note: https://t.co/dn02p2G4k3

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

That was admittedly a SOFT inflation report and I was wrong

I am still very sceptical of the notion that inflation is defeated, but I am not a fan of peeing against the wind either..

Details below

[Real Vision @RealVision]

1/ 📈 A few insights from this week's #MacroMondays with .@AndreasSteno as we break down the biggest market moves...

From #Bitcoin's staggering inflows to meme stocks making a comeback, we've got you covered: 🧵https://t.co/5jzJR7YCIg

[Steno Research @stenodata]

https://t.co/cvQt14BDIR

[Steno Research @stenodata]

New month - New Macro Regime.

It is everything UP, UP, UP this month. How does this impact your portfolio?

Visit our site for more on how to trade the current macro situation.

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

ISM Services jumps back to 53.8

Time to put that recession chatter to bed for a few months again?

[Steno Research @stenodata]

https://t.co/4qHivbyOvj

[Steno Research @stenodata]

China's massive copper stockpiling is reshaping global markets and driving up prices! This strategic move is set to impact everything from EVs to solar panels.

Read our lates piece on emerging markets for more - see in comments

[Real Vision @RealVision]

🔥 Macro Mondays with .@AndreasSteno

https://t.co/nkXtA69kY4