Stéphane Monier

Chief Investment Officer (CIO) @LombardOdier Private Bank
Investment insights

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

Although still elevated in nominal terms, the U.S #M2 #Money #Supply is falling at its fastest pace on record, showing a 4% #contraction over the last 12 months. This strong reduction in money supply, never seen since 1960, suggests a further decline in #economic #activity over the year to come.

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

Discover the latest edition of my #newsletter "Rethink the Month" on LinkedIn:

Are #equities due a fall? Four charts for Q1 #earnings and beyond

Read it below:

https://t.co/EfYRdAZWp2

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

In the #US, #consumer #debt hit new record at $16.9 trillion and delinquencies are also rising. The numbers show high #delinquency rate among the young generation (20s, 30s) suggesting worsening future #credit access that will weigh on future #consumption.

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

Dear investors, in this week's CIO Viewpoint we examine the reasons behind the recent rise in #gold prices, and offer our outlook for the #precious #metal.

https://t.co/XFGLw8ZHkI

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

Japanese #equities are now outperforming Chinese equities. In #Japan, foreign #investors are interested in the country’s #stability, positive #earnings outlook and improved corporate #governance. In #China, investors are now having trouble getting past #geopolitics.

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

In the #ISM #Manufacturing PMI survey, participants indicate the status of overall #US #business #activity including levels of production, employment, deliveries and inventories. Since 1970, everytime the index went below 42, a #recession occurred. We are now at 46.3!

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

In #Europe, the Top 10 contributors of the #Stoxx600 performance year-to-date contribute to 30% of the index returns this year. This shows us that #performance in Europe is much more spread out in terms of #concentration and #sectors (Luxury, Staples, Health Care..) than in the #US, where the top 10 contributors of the #SP500 ytd are responsible for 80% of the index performance and are mostly composed of mega-cap #tech #stocks.

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

In the #US, the #market is pricing in a 25bps #Fed #rate hike in May (90% probability) and a potential 25bps #hike in June (20% probability). Then, when do you think the Fed will start cutting rates?

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

Global #food prices have been going down for the last year, and should help bring down #US Food #Inflation, which increased by 8,2% YoY in March. Unlike energy, Food is still a positive contributor to US CPI, accountable for 1,13% of the 5 % Headline YoY CPI seen in March 2023.

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

At now 5%, #Fed #Funds offer the same yield as #US IG #credit and 3 times the level of #SP500 #equity dividend #yield. This becomes a potentially attractive #investment solution for conservative investors as attested by the huge inflows in #MoneyMarket #Funds.

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

In the #US, the top10 contributors of the #SP500 #performance in 2023 are related to technology. Together they contribute to more than 80% of the equity index performance year-to-date.

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

What are my latest views on #China #reopening ? Check out below the video from my #interview this morning on @CNBC London!

https://t.co/cQlY1fHy0X

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

This morning, it was a pleasure to be on @CNBC in London to talk about our latest views on #China reopening, #inflation in #Europe and the upcoming moves by the #Fed. Thank you very much @CNBCJulianna for having me on your show!

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

In the #US, the first large #banks reported strong #results on Friday (JPM shares jumped 7.5%, Citi 4.5%). This should boost the sector, which had previously not participated in the #SP500 rally these recent days due to stability concerns over the #BankingCrisis.

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

This week foreign #investors bought a record amount of #Japanese #stocks following reports that Warren #Buffet was bullish on #Japan. Confidence builds in the nation’s economic #stability, positive #earnings outlook and improved corporate #governance.

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

This year, the #luxury goods sector is outperforming global #markets. #Hermes soared past €200 billion in market value this week and #LVMH just announced boosted #sales for Q1 2023, as #Chinese #shoppers came back to stores to #spend their accumulated pandemic #savings.

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

During the last 6 #hiking #cycles, the #SP500 went up by an average 15% during the year following the end of hikes by the #Fed. The only exception being the burst of the tech bubble in 2001 implying a valuation adjustment much bigger than usual. How will #equity #markets perform this year ?

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

Global #supplychain pressure is now easing, and the NY Fed Index is back to 2008 levels. This is good news for #inflation, which sees both moderation in #demand and improvement in #supply.

[Stéphane Monier @stephanemonier]

Dear investors, following last week’s announcement of a cut in #OPEC+ #oil production, we examine the implications for the #energy #markets and global #growth.

Discover my latest CIO Viewpoint:

https://t.co/EfpCETGlLk