Sahel Terror Watch

Sahel jihadism is Europe's next strategic failure. Tracking JNIM & IS-Sahel expansion and its direct impact on migration, security & Western interests.

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

@DanielsonKassa1 Well written! Ethiopia's role in the global sphere is becoming more and more crucial, stable leadership is key

https://t.co/oHX39KavJT

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

📍 HORN OF AFRICA

On 11 May 2026, Ethiopia and the United States signed a Bilateral Structured Dialogue Framework in Washington, institutionalising defence, security, and economic cooperation.

The timing is deliberate.

Al-Shabaab's partnership with the Houthis has brought in drone technology and training it previously lacked. Sudan's disintegration has created ungoverned zones along Ethiopia's western and northwestern borders, already being used for arms smuggling and cross-border raids.

Ethiopia fields Africa's largest army approximately 503,000 troops. Ethiopian units formed the core of African Union counterinsurgency missions that rolled back al-Shabaab across Somalia, protecting sea lanes carrying 12 to 15 percent of global maritime trade.

The 2026 US strategy shifts the American posture from primary actor to senior partner from funder of last resort to transactional ally that measures its commitments by what it receives in return. HORN

Ethiopia is Washington's most valuable partner in the Horn. Egypt is deploying troops to Somalia specifically to pressure Addis Ababa. Eritrea is running covert ground operations inside Ethiopia in Fano uniforms.

The West's indispensable Horn partner is being encircled.

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

@BBCWorld Ethiopia's role in the global sphere is becoming more and more crucial, stable leadership is key

https://t.co/oHX39KavJT

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

📍 HORN OF AFRICA

On 11 May 2026, Ethiopia and the United States signed a Bilateral Structured Dialogue Framework in Washington, institutionalising defence, security, and economic cooperation.

The timing is deliberate.

Al-Shabaab's partnership with the Houthis has brought in drone technology and training it previously lacked. Sudan's disintegration has created ungoverned zones along Ethiopia's western and northwestern borders, already being used for arms smuggling and cross-border raids.

Ethiopia fields Africa's largest army approximately 503,000 troops. Ethiopian units formed the core of African Union counterinsurgency missions that rolled back al-Shabaab across Somalia, protecting sea lanes carrying 12 to 15 percent of global maritime trade.

The 2026 US strategy shifts the American posture from primary actor to senior partner from funder of last resort to transactional ally that measures its commitments by what it receives in return. HORN

Ethiopia is Washington's most valuable partner in the Horn. Egypt is deploying troops to Somalia specifically to pressure Addis Ababa. Eritrea is running covert ground operations inside Ethiopia in Fano uniforms.

The West's indispensable Horn partner is being encircled.

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

@business Ethiopia's role in the global sphere is becoming more and more crucial, stable leadership is key

https://t.co/oHX39KavJT

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

📍 HORN OF AFRICA

On 11 May 2026, Ethiopia and the United States signed a Bilateral Structured Dialogue Framework in Washington, institutionalising defence, security, and economic cooperation.

The timing is deliberate.

Al-Shabaab's partnership with the Houthis has brought in drone technology and training it previously lacked. Sudan's disintegration has created ungoverned zones along Ethiopia's western and northwestern borders, already being used for arms smuggling and cross-border raids.

Ethiopia fields Africa's largest army approximately 503,000 troops. Ethiopian units formed the core of African Union counterinsurgency missions that rolled back al-Shabaab across Somalia, protecting sea lanes carrying 12 to 15 percent of global maritime trade.

The 2026 US strategy shifts the American posture from primary actor to senior partner from funder of last resort to transactional ally that measures its commitments by what it receives in return. HORN

Ethiopia is Washington's most valuable partner in the Horn. Egypt is deploying troops to Somalia specifically to pressure Addis Ababa. Eritrea is running covert ground operations inside Ethiopia in Fano uniforms.

The West's indispensable Horn partner is being encircled.

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

📍 HORN OF AFRICA

On 11 May 2026, Ethiopia and the United States signed a Bilateral Structured Dialogue Framework in Washington, institutionalising defence, security, and economic cooperation.

The timing is deliberate.

Al-Shabaab's partnership with the Houthis has brought in drone technology and training it previously lacked. Sudan's disintegration has created ungoverned zones along Ethiopia's western and northwestern borders, already being used for arms smuggling and cross-border raids.

Ethiopia fields Africa's largest army approximately 503,000 troops. Ethiopian units formed the core of African Union counterinsurgency missions that rolled back al-Shabaab across Somalia, protecting sea lanes carrying 12 to 15 percent of global maritime trade.

The 2026 US strategy shifts the American posture from primary actor to senior partner from funder of last resort to transactional ally that measures its commitments by what it receives in return. HORN

Ethiopia is Washington's most valuable partner in the Horn. Egypt is deploying troops to Somalia specifically to pressure Addis Ababa. Eritrea is running covert ground operations inside Ethiopia in Fano uniforms.

The West's indispensable Horn partner is being encircled.

[Charles Onyango-Obbo @cobbo3]

This!?😲 Ethiopia is preventing the Horn of Africa from falling under the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood, Al Qaeda, Iran, and its proxies.
https://t.co/8lOLIJ9eWH

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

Broader picture: While Russia/Africa Corps and local forces struggle, JNIM builds governance, taxes, and alliances. Europe’s southern flank is destabilizing in real time.

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

JNIM claimed responsibility for a major attack on Diori Hamani International Airport + military airbase in Niamey, Niger June 18.

At least 13 dead (11 soldiers, 2 civilians). This isn’t a one-off. It’s part of JNIM’s shift toward high-value urban targets.

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

Coastal states (Benin, Togo, Ivory Coast) are watching nervously.
Why it matters: Second airport strike in 2026
Shows JNIM’s reach expanding beyond Mali/Burkina core
Direct challenge to Niger’s junta

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

📍 NIGERIA
A man named Ba'ana slaughtered 15 people in Bama in 2015.

Years later he resurfaced as a repentant Boko Haram fighter, working alongside Nigerian soldiers in the same community.

A resident's nephew confronted him. Ba'ana killed him. Was arrested. Released. Now fights alongside the military in Gamboru.

This is not an isolated case.

HumAngle spent 6 months documenting former Boko Haram fighters living inside displacement camps in Borno armed, moving freely, and in several cases re-terrorising the same civilians they once displaced.

10,000 suspected fighters are awaiting trial. Conviction rate from mass trials: less than 10%.

[HumAngle_ @HumAngle_]

Are the terrorist deserters genuinely seeking redemption or only trying to survive?

For months, HumAngle probed the complexities of the former insurgents’ lives and the fragile peace their reintegration poses to the civilian population.

Read: https://t.co/ofV1lwFWw0

[Sahel Alerte @SahelAlerte]

#Azawad - #Russie- #France
Plusieurs organisations de la diaspora touarègue en Europe ont organisés une manifestation devant l'ambassade de Russie à Paris ce 20 juin 2026 pour dénoncer les violations contre les populations civiles de l'#Azawad et du Sahel central. Commises par la Russie via les mercenaires russes de #Wagner et Africa corps.

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

📍 AFRICA
In 2025, tens of thousands died in wars across east, west and central Africa. Millions were displaced — many repeatedly — in Sudan, the DRC, and the Sahel.

International Crisis Group has identified seven conflict arenas requiring urgent attention in 2026:
🔴 Burundi / Rwanda
🔴 Cameroon
🔴 Ethiopia / Eritrea
🔴 The Sahel
🔴 Somalia
🔴 South Sudan
🔴 Sudan

The African Union is no longer able to intervene substantively in many of today's conflicts. In 2025 it failed to assert itself in Sudan's war, was rebuffed by South Sudan's government, and came up short funding its own mission in Somalia. acleddata

The unravelling of the UN-centred multilateral system has left African states more exposed, as major powers increasingly disregard international rules meant to protect civilians. fronts

Seven simultaneous crises. One institution. Declining capacity to act.

https://t.co/YJHDnI1Qqb

[ACLED @ACLEDINFO]

When schools become targets of armed groups in #Nigeria, the damage reaches far beyond those abducted, driving displacement, keeping children out of class, and eroding confidence in public security.

Recent mass abductions in #Oyo state highlight the risks.

[Crisis Group @CrisisGroup]

In a world upended by revisionist big powers, newly assertive middle powers and growing global challenges, it has never been clearer that African states can best serve their individual interests in peace and security by working together. https://t.co/BdolQr0ps1

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

📍 HORN OF AFRICA

Eritrea and Sudan's military have been enemies, allies, and enemies again twice in thirty years.
They are allies again now.
The reason is not ideology. It is geometry.

Both face the same threat: an Ethiopia that is growing, rearming, and building a naval presence on the Red Sea. Both have active border disputes with Addis Ababa. Both need the other to avoid strategic isolation.

The alliance between President Isaias and General Al-Burhan is a product of regional pressure brought into being by a specific configuration of threats and carrying within it the contradictions that will, in time, pull it apart.

It has happened before. Sudan backed Eritrean rebels against Ethiopia. Then backed Ethiopia against Eritrea. Then switched again.

The current alignment is the latest rotation — not a permanent architecture.

When the regional pressure that created it shifts, the alliance will too.

https://t.co/taRoz8j03B

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

📍 AFRICA
Seven conflict arenas demand urgent attention in 2026: Burundi and Rwanda, Cameroon, Ethiopia and Eritrea, the Sahel, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan.

The African Union is no longer able to intervene substantively in many of today's conflicts. The North Africa Post

At a time when the AU is needed most, it is arguably at its weakest since it was inaugurated. Crisis Group
Seven crises. One institution. No capacity to act.

https://t.co/YJHDnI1iAD

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

📍 SUDAN
Khartoum's civil registry: offline.
Tax collection: ceased.
Municipal services: gone.

Both the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Sudanese army's rivals have systematically looted or converted local government offices, courtrooms, and land registries into military barracks.

In vast areas of Sudan, no entity remains capable of issuing identity documents, resolving land disputes, or arresting criminals.
Into the vacuum: militia rule, checkpoint extortion, and makeshift courts.

In September 2023, fighters in Nyala set up roadblocks demanding up to 10,000 Sudanese pounds from traders to allow passage. Business owners were fined. Those who could not pay were detained.

The grassroots resistance committees that led Sudan's 2019 revolution are now the last providers of basic services in many neighbourhoods.
Both armed factions view them as threats.

[Small Wars Journal @smallwars]

Sudan's civil war is dismantling the foundations of #governance. 🇸🇩

⚖️Courts are shuttered.
🚰Municipal services have ceased.
📜Civil registries have disappeared.

Armed groups are filling the vacuum with parallel administrations, checkpoints, and coercive rule.

Meanwhile, grassroots #resistance committees and emergency response rooms continue delivering essential services under extraordinary pressure.

The future of #Sudan will depend on whether #CivilAuthority can survive the war.

https://t.co/6ygnTGGtfO

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

📍CENTRAL SAHEL
The juntas promised security.
Mali: 10,000+ killed in 2025. Former PM jailed for a social media post.
Burkina Faso: 118 NGOs dissolved in a single day. Death penalty restored.
Niger: leading jailer of journalists in Africa. Democracy postponed by 5 years.

JNIM controls 60% of Mali.
Burkina Faso's government controls 40% of its own territory.

https://t.co/YMPzcrZJ93

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

@clashreport A blessed agreement for terrorism in the region

https://t.co/pWyvZFzmVE

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

⚠️ BREAKING ⚠️
The Iran deal was signed today.
Day 0: oil export waivers activated.
Day 30: Hormuz reopens. $2bn monthly oil revenue restored.
Day 45: $12bn in frozen assets under negotiation.
Day 60: full sanctions relief — or collapse.

The deal addresses uranium enrichment. It does not address proxy funding. It does not address drone exports.

Iran already has an active drone supply route to Sudan. Houthi networks have transferred components to al-Shabaab. Iranian-origin hardware is documented in the Sahel.

That network was constructed under maximum sanctions pressure.

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

@WhiteHouse And watch what happens at 60 days - we are now in a countdown against the full funding of terrorism across Africa and the Middle East

https://t.co/pWyvZFzmVE

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

⚠️ BREAKING ⚠️
The Iran deal was signed today.
Day 0: oil export waivers activated.
Day 30: Hormuz reopens. $2bn monthly oil revenue restored.
Day 45: $12bn in frozen assets under negotiation.
Day 60: full sanctions relief — or collapse.

The deal addresses uranium enrichment. It does not address proxy funding. It does not address drone exports.

Iran already has an active drone supply route to Sudan. Houthi networks have transferred components to al-Shabaab. Iranian-origin hardware is documented in the Sahel.

That network was constructed under maximum sanctions pressure.

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

@BBCAfrica And watch what happens at 60 days - we are now in a countdown against the full funding of terrorism across Africa and the Middle East

https://t.co/pWyvZFzmVE

[Sahel Terror Watch @sterrorwatch]

⚠️ BREAKING ⚠️
The Iran deal was signed today.
Day 0: oil export waivers activated.
Day 30: Hormuz reopens. $2bn monthly oil revenue restored.
Day 45: $12bn in frozen assets under negotiation.
Day 60: full sanctions relief — or collapse.

The deal addresses uranium enrichment. It does not address proxy funding. It does not address drone exports.

Iran already has an active drone supply route to Sudan. Houthi networks have transferred components to al-Shabaab. Iranian-origin hardware is documented in the Sahel.

That network was constructed under maximum sanctions pressure.