Steve Cinelli

Banker, economist, author, artist, chef, un pazzo

[Steve Cinelli @stevecinelli]

@Osint613 Hmm. No mention of Lebanon in the mix. 50/50 chance that blows up again before this deal is signed formally.

[Steve Cinelli @stevecinelli]

@DogsBreakfastAZ @RepKatiePorter Take a look at the financial of the biggest 200 banks in the US. Bet that over 100 have the same portfolio composition, given lending activity over the last 10 years. An industry low of 60% loan to deposit ratio. So their money into went to "risk free(?)" assets. Silly silly.

[Steve Cinelli @stevecinelli]

@DogsBreakfastAZ @RepKatiePorter I beg to differ. Look at its balance sheet. It has a relatively low loan-to-deposit ratio - 45%, thus sitting on lots of liquid assets - gilts, etc. Half the assets could have been sold in an instant. Problem is that the govvies had interest rate risk, dipping in value. /1

[Steve Cinelli @stevecinelli]

@LHSummers So what say you to the observation that 100+ banks of the top US 200 in have similar portfolios, due to a decades long low loan to deposit ratio, given economic conditions. Deposits were put into "risk free" assets. Yet regulators monitored credit risk not interest rate risk.

[Steve Cinelli @stevecinelli]

@Jessicalessin @WSJ Ignorance and foresight have no color, creed nor gender, or specific position. SVB is the bellwether of a big shakeout in the banking space. Maybe 100+ banks of the top 200 have similar asset portfolios. High levels of long-dated gilts as loans are down due to the economy.

[Steve Cinelli @stevecinelli]

@elonmusk Picking up SVB is interesting, but there are hundreds of banks in the same spot. Low loan-to-deposit ratios and huge securities portfolios under water. To the tune of $700 billion of unrealized losses. A chance to alter banking.

[Steve Cinelli @stevecinelli]

@RepKatiePorter So many banks are in the same place, just haven't taken action. There's $700 billion of unrealized losses on bank books according to the FDIC in December. This is a mere tip of the iceberg. And lastly, SVB's demise was financial euthanasia. Many contributors to its death.

[Steve Cinelli @stevecinelli]

@RepKatiePorter SVB did not take reckless risks. Like most banks, they scaled back lending given economic conditions and increased its "risk free" securities portfolios, which got hammered with rate increases. The banking industry is at a 20 year low in terms of loan to deposit ratios /2

[SuperCrowd @TheSuperCrowd]

We're excited to announce that @stevecinelli will be speaking at #SuperCrowd23. Take advantage of early bird pricing today. https://t.co/JXMetstwZ8
@devindthorpe #communitycapital #impinv #socent

[Steve Cinelli @stevecinelli]

Riddle me this. Seems like the SCOTUS review of Biden's Student Loan Forgiveness Program may ultimately focus on the juridical vs judicial basis. The former goes to the intent of the law, be it Article III or the Heroes Act. The latter is the navigation thru the court system.

[Steve Cinelli @stevecinelli]

@JesseKellyDC Spot on.

[Steve Cinelli @stevecinelli]

While I read the commentary of CA on reparations and other historical recompense, I reflect on Carl Sagan who stated “Is it fair to judge us by unknown standards of the future?” Shall those thirty years ahead be responsible to the woke view of today?

[Steve Cinelli @stevecinelli]

@LetsHempIt In a letter to James Madison in 1787, Thomas Jefferson wrote, "Hemp is of first necessity to the wealth & protection of the country."

[Steve Cinelli @stevecinelli]

@RepRashida And how many employees did he have, how much did they pay in taxes, how much payroll taxes were paid thru his Organization. I am not a fan of DJT, but please understand as an employer, there were taxes paid.

[Steve Cinelli @stevecinelli]

@AOC Was it a mistake to use the term "constricted" rather than "constructed"? Or truly a subliminal response

[Steve Cinelli @stevecinelli]

@RepJayapal What is your response to those that had earlier paid their loans? Is there "reparations" for such? Why should taxpayers foot this bill, as the Universities were the recipients of the loan proceeds for tuition and administrative expenses. Sitting on $600b of endowments?

[Paul Graham @paulg]

As the "western diet" spreads, autoimmune diseases are becoming common in countries where they were never seen before.

https://t.co/ABxEyqdnDZ

[Steve Cinelli @stevecinelli]

@rcwhalen @politico @morningmoneyben @lawrencehwhite1 @GeorgeSelgin @DavidKotokGIC Spot on. If there's a history there's no mystery. We will see the unraveling of various asset bubbles, from housing to equities, as rates move north, and then the domino effects on the credit markets and banks. Might it be the quintessential time for China and Russia...

[Steve Cinelli @stevecinelli]

@JohnJHarwood Please just report the news. Don't make the news. Not your job.