steves lckbox

@steve1ofthemany

[Pop Base @PopBase]

Today is Juneteenth.

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@VeryGewd Her insistence on saying those aren’t the polls she’s seeing, and naming Kamala.

I think we now know one of the institutional players in the party behind her for 28 lol

[Kayah @__Kayah__]

Remnick: “Is AOC the standard bearer? She’s leading polls with women.”
Clinton: “Not the polls I’m seeing. I think she is a very talented politician & she’s in the top 5 but so is Kamala Harris & depending upon the polls, sometimes Gavin Newsom.”

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@ChrisDJackson Still saying this as if Biden wasn’t about to lose states like New Mexico, New Hampshire, and New Jersey, and lose us 3-4 more Senate seats…

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@josecanyousee Feel as if it’s heavily influenced by Biden world (Jill & Hunter particularly) kind of speaking on Kamala lately.

Hillary probably isn’t fond of it.

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@ErlineP @Renee05208714 @PollTracker2024 My trust lies in the average and always the most recent polling, and that shows her consistently well ahead.

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@ErlineP @Renee05208714 @PollTracker2024 That’s the only measure of voters out there currently. Again you’re coping, you’ll wake back a candidate who is struggling, go focus on that.

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@ErlineP @Renee05208714 @PollTracker2024 You can not imagine it, but voters are clear. I’ll happily bookmark your post to come back to.

I’m not running on hope alone, I’m running on the reality of who the people are saying they want, and that’s Kamala Harris.

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@ErlineP @Renee05208714 @PollTracker2024 You’re coping, you’ll wake up on Super Tuesday.

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@ErlineP @Renee05208714 @PollTracker2024 Lucky for you this isn’t a one off for her. The voters are clear.

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

2028 Dem primary crosstabs (among top 4 candidates)

Black Dems (n=171)
🔹Harris: 47%
🔹Newsom: 12%
🔹AOC: 5%
🔹Pete: 2%
——
White Dems (n=572)
🔹Harris: 17%
🔹Pete: 12%
🔹Newsom: 10%
🔹AOC: 5%
——
Hispanic Dems (n=161)
🔹Harris: 21%
🔹Newsom: 21%
🔹AOC: 12%
🔹Pete: 7%

YouGov | 4/8-13 | n=968

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@ErlineP @Renee05208714 @PollTracker2024 You’re coping on what a organizations lean may or may not be to try and ignore scientific polls that are released every presidential primary.

Pete isn’t doing well. Kamala is. Simple.

Just going to have to let the voters show you, by then of course, too late for him.

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@ErlineP @Renee05208714 @PollTracker2024 You’re coping. I’m sure every one of your “shady” pollsters are putting up fake numbers.

Ignore reality all day, but don’t act shocked when Super Tuesday rolls around.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Noble Predictive/The Center Square Poll | 6/1-6/4

2028 Democratic presidential primary

🟦Kamala Harris 27%
🟦Gavin Newsom 14%
🟦Pete Buttigieg 11%
🟦AOC 8%
🟦JB Priztker 2%
🟦Andy Beshear 2%
Undecided 17%

Link to poll: https://t.co/m6O4dVOO5D

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@ErlineP @Renee05208714 @PollTracker2024 You’re coping

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

New - 2028 presidential polls

🔵 Harris 31%
🔵 Newsom 14%
🔵 Shapiro 6%
🔵 Buttigieg 6%
🔵 AOC 5%
🔵 Booker 4%
🔵 Kelly 4%

🔴 Vance 29%
🔴 Trump Jr 19%
🔴 Rubio 12%
🔴 DeSantis 6%

Tipp #B - RV - 5/28

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@ErlineP @Renee05208714 @PollTracker2024 Now it’s they’re bad pollsters because you don’t like the result lol, well there’s many more where that came from either way.

The reality for Buttigieg: You can’t win a plurality of white voters, get obliterated with Black/Hispanic/Asian voters, and expect to go anywhere.

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@ErlineP @Renee05208714 @PollTracker2024 It’s not cherry picking lmao, Kamala’s lead in 76% of Dem Primary Polls released this year. Pete has lead in *3* total.

Here’s one with Pete for you. (He’s still behind)

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

2028 Dem primary crosstabs (among top 4 candidates)

Black Dems
🔹Harris: 47%
🔹Newsom: 10%
🔹AOC: 6%
🔹Pete: 4%
——
White Dems
🔹Harris: 21%
🔹Newsom: 19%
🔹Pete: 10%
🔹AOC: 6%
——
Hispanic Dems
🔹Harris: 36%
🔹AOC: 13%
🔹Newsom: 11%
🔹Pete: 7%

McLaughlin | n=457 LV | 5/12-18

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@SeitterSimora @ErlineP @PollTracker2024 I’m not mad..you responded to me…

And yes it’s very much consistent, you can be upset about said reality from the voters, but it does not change the said reality.

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

2028 Dem primary crosstabs (top 4)

Black Dems
🔹Harris: 55%
🔹Newsom: 10%
🔹AOC: 4%
🔹Pete: 1%
——
White Dems
🔹Harris: 27%
🔹Newsom: 17%
🔹Pete: 11%
🔹AOC: 8%
——
Hispanic Dems
🔹Harris: 46%
🔹AOC: 14%
🔹Newsom: 13%
🔹Pete: 2%
——
Asian Dems
🔹Newsom: 39%
🔹Harris: 23%
🔹AOC: 0%
🔹Pete: 0%

Focaldata/FT | n=646 LV | 5/29-6/1
https://t.co/8ugrdK9kjj

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@Renee05208714 @ErlineP @PollTracker2024 Take your pick, it’s the reality.

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

2028 Dem primary crosstabs (among top 4 candidates)

Black Dems
🔹Harris: 47%
🔹Newsom: 10%
🔹AOC: 6%
🔹Pete: 4%
——
White Dems
🔹Harris: 21%
🔹Newsom: 19%
🔹Pete: 10%
🔹AOC: 6%
——
Hispanic Dems
🔹Harris: 36%
🔹AOC: 13%
🔹Newsom: 11%
🔹Pete: 7%

McLaughlin | n=457 LV | 5/12-18

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@SeitterSimora @ErlineP @PollTracker2024 Yes, again, people within the party, not voters.

When everyday voters are polled you get this over and over

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

Harvard Harris: Dem Primary Crosstabs

Black Dems
🔵 Harris: 59%
🔵 Newsom: 23%
🔵 Shapiro: 6%
🔵 AOC: 5%
🔵 Pritzker: 5%
——
White Dems
🔵 Harris: 37%
🔵 Newsom: 25%
🔵 Shapiro: 12%
🔵 AOC: 10%
🔵 Pritzker: 8%
——
Hispanic Dems
🔵 Harris: 52%
🔵 Newsom: 28%
🔵 AOC: 8%
🔵 Shapiro: 6%
🔵 Pritzker: 2%
——
Asian Dems
🔵 Harris: 45%
🔵 Newsom: 25%
🔵 Pritzker: 17%
🔵 Shapiro: 13%
🔵 AOC: 0%

Harvard/Harris | 5/29-31

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@ErlineP @Renee05208714 @PollTracker2024 That’s…literally what I said…”he didn’t need to win the white vote, he just needed to remain competitive.”

Which in Kamala’s case, she’s not just competitive, but winning every demographic

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

Harvard Harris: Dem Primary Crosstabs

Black Dems
🔵 Harris: 59%
🔵 Newsom: 23%
🔵 Shapiro: 6%
🔵 AOC: 5%
🔵 Pritzker: 5%
——
White Dems
🔵 Harris: 37%
🔵 Newsom: 25%
🔵 Shapiro: 12%
🔵 AOC: 10%
🔵 Pritzker: 8%
——
Hispanic Dems
🔵 Harris: 52%
🔵 Newsom: 28%
🔵 AOC: 8%
🔵 Shapiro: 6%
🔵 Pritzker: 2%
——
Asian Dems
🔵 Harris: 45%
🔵 Newsom: 25%
🔵 Pritzker: 17%
🔵 Shapiro: 13%
🔵 AOC: 0%

Harvard/Harris | 5/29-31

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@ErlineP @Renee05208714 @PollTracker2024 That’s entirely the point, he didn’t need to win the white vote, he just needed to remain competitive with the white vote.

When you are running away with the black vote by 2:1 margins or more, that carries you over the finish line in a Dem Presidential Primary.

[steves lckbox @stevelckbox]

@Renee05208714 @ErlineP @PollTracker2024 You’re trying to ignore reality and recent history lol. Hispanics making up more of the party than before does not change reality, and they don’t vote as a bloc like black voters do, it’s why white voters haven’t been the deciding factor on the Dem side in many years lol