Randomly from AZ originally too and have noticed a similar phenomenon (although I don’t think it’s a uniquely AZ thing).
You grow and expand your character, skills, life, etc just like your friends. When you do reconnect, you find the pieces that used to fit together no longer do. Like two pieces of a puzzle that used to connect but both changed in their own ways as they were apart.
I do the same thing, but will instead ask, “what would need to be true for that number to be a 9 or a 10?”
For some reason, people seem to respond really well to the, “what would need to be true” line. I use it in a variety of contexts and it’s super helpful.
I’ll also sometimes tell people they aren’t allowed to say 7, they gotta choose 6 or 8. Stolen from @tferriss who said 7 is the safe number on the 1-10 scale. It’s like Switzerland.
@heyshrutimishra Strong analogy that makes it much clearer to me what’s happening.
There is so much noise in the marketplace on pricing, evals, etc. that it’s hard to track what model is what price and what strengths they have. Touch to keep up!
I generally agree that young people need support on the social capital front, but have always felt it should happen at a more local level than the government.
Maybe it’s my PTSD as a former gov employee, but government is usually the worst answer for problems long term. Especially ones of a social/relational nature like this.
Day 24/395:
Yesterday, I made my first internet money in my life!
$249/mo. Not close to replacing my day job income, but so amazing to see progress! Really proud of the fact that I could build something that provides enough value for at least one business to start paying for.
No-one will see this but that's fine. This is for my accountability more than anything
Today is day 0/395 of my challenge to replace my $192k full time job with internet businesses by July 1, 2027.
I'l share here my journey on everything I'm learning building the businesses, maintaining a high-bar for my day job (currently president of an org), and staying plugged in with my wife and three boys.
Currently have three businesses in the hopper:
The Prompt - An AI news newsletter for Gen Z to stay on top of AI news that will impact their careers. At only 32 subscribers now, need to 10x that before we can start talking revenue.
Calamus - An AI ghost-writer that learns your voice, what you like writing about, and will write content for your business or you personally on a scheduled cadence. Great for thought-leadership or a strong article libary for SEO. In talks with current beta customers now
Stealth/To Be Accounced (targeting August 2026 release) - An AI version of an influencer helping sell expertise to her customers for a recurring subscription. It's basically a chatbot of her that knows her content and voice well enough that it can talk to her followers in a way that strongly replicates her. It can link them to all of the relevant context and content that it uses in it's response for followers to continue the conversation. Revenue for me would be through some sort of profit-sharing model off of subscriptions.
I'l be posting here consistently to keep myself accountable to the journey! Follow my if you'd like to follow along the next 395 days of progress.
Links to my projects in bio.
Wrapping up day 15/395 and have finished the Calamus build out + got approval from my board to discuss The Prompt publicly!
SO excited to start pushing these products out into the world and providing value to people! Hopefully my first magic internet money is not far behind :)
Got my first paying customer for Calamus!!!!! The pilot I was working on converting made the leap.
Now need to make sure it continues to work and keep building value. For them and for future customers - I hope this is just the beginning :)
I think this point is also why the diffusion of AI across non-code applications will take so much longer than people think.
People are looking at how quickly code is being automated and extrapolate that across all domains. This is tempting to do but leaves you short of the real world in the ways you and Ethan describe.
When the needed output is a human action (e.g. purchasing a product, settling a legal dispute, etc.) AI can’t automate or think its way through that obstacle. The AI will only help the speed to action.
Of course, agents operating in the same space as agents change the math too. How does an agent settle a legal dispute with another agent? How does you influence an agent to purchase a product? Etc.
Fun Wild West scenarios in front of us to discover!
@signulll@rabois Reading Parkinson’s Law right now and this is an incredible showcase of what bureaucracy inevitably evolves into like the book talks about.
The biggest illusion around communication is that it actually happened.
All too often, we assume people understand things the same way or at the same rate we do. we don’t take the time to walk them to understanding.
Tough as it, that’s a failure of leadership.
This brilliant lesson on communication by @rabois is why the AI leaders are failing. It’s not sufficient just to “speak your truth.” You have to communicate in a way that elucidates your audience. Convincing the public that your company is a menace obviously fails that test.
Got my first verbal commitment from a pilot customer that they want to move forward with Calamus!
Really excited to (hopefully) make my first $ off a business I started!!
Been working through a TON of changes to the behind the scenes workflow for Calamus the last week and finally feel good about launching it to the public!
Going to start reaching out to my network for first customers.
Feels like a surreal moment - First internet $ incoming!
My theory is that the American empire is JUST getting started.
US has a stranglehold on Space with SpaceX, which is the next frontier for defense/war. It has a comically large lead. No one will be close for at least 20 years.
It is the leading power in AI by far - both in models and chips. China is catching up fast, but the US has an inherent mechanism that will increase the likelihood that it will win in the end - a free market + capitalism + free speech.
A free market + capitalism allows for brutal competition between companies. Free speech allows for AI models to be maximally truth seeking, which means that AIs CAN and WILL BECOME smarter than humans to the point where they can tell the truth about its leaders.
This is literally impossible in China. Try having a Chinese model that says Xi Jinping is corrupt. Good luck with that.
Then, you have a country that has more guns than people and surrounded by two massive oceans and two friendly neighbors, which means any sort of kinetic take over of the country is literally impossible.
Not to mention the US has BY FAR the best and strongest military.
The only way adversaries can hope to defeat the US is by tearing it from within by pitting us against each other. This is why it's virtually guaranteed that all the division/hatred/polarization you see within the country is fomented by China/Russia Psy Ops + propaganda efforts.
I'm not saying these aren't naturally happening in spots - America is far from perfect - but it would be naive to think our adversaries aren't pouring millions of gallons of fuel on a fire.
As long as the American public a) has the ability to exercise its free speech b) has a protected 2nd amendment c) capitalism and free markets continue to function and d) the populace is aware of how awesome America really is, it is literally impossible to stop the US's trajectory to global domination in the coming decades, especially as China's demographics continue to collapse.
It's the bottom of the 9th, the game is tied, and the US has the bases loaded. It's a 3-2 pitch.
All we need is a home run, and we win the rest of the century.