Steven P Moore

Here for all the news. @stcharlescards @OhioState @OhioStateFB @Columbia_biz aspiring senior tour pro. Instrument rated Private Pilot. MM PE pro.

[Jim Tressel @JimTressel5]

"Spread love everywhere you go. Let no one ever come to you without leaving better and happier."  Mother Teresa #QuietTime

[Lt. Governor Jim Tressel @LtGovJimTressel]

Thank you, Buckeye Nation.

[Mike Greenberg @Espngreeny]

Teams with the bye: 0-6.
#CFPplayoff

[Jim Tressel @JimTressel5]

"You are the only person on earth who can use your ability." #QuietTime

[Jim Tressel @JimTressel5]

"It is not how much we give but how much love we put into giving."  Mother Teresa #QuietTime

[molson 🧠⚙️ @Molson_Hart]

No one knows what is going to happen to US - China trade.

No expert can answer these questions for every product and service we trade:

1. Is it important?

🇺🇸 Example: Most toys and clothes are not essential to most Americans
🇨🇳 Example: University education and tourism in the US are not critical to the lives of most Chinese people.

2. Can it be bought somewhere else LEGALLY?

🇺🇸 Example: Electrical wiring is important, not just for new buildings, but for maintenance and repair, but it can be purchased outside of China
🇨🇳 Example: Soybeans are needed to feed livestock, but Brazil sells them and can route all of its production to China, while the US sells its production to Brazilian customers who are priced out

3. Can it be bought somewhere else ILLEGALLY?

🇺🇸 Example: Lighting is important and China accounts for most of US supply. Will the government of Vietnam be able to import Chinese lights and call them "made in Vietnam"? Will US Customs turn a blind eye to this because we need lights?
🇨🇳 Example: It is rumored that Nvidia chips are smuggled through 3rd countries to bypass US export controls

4. Is it important, without alternative supply, and difficult to smuggle?

🇺🇸 Example: China banned the export of rare earth minerals, which are needed for cars, electronics, medical devices, and petroleum refining. During the pandemic, China was strict; they may be similarly so with this export control.
🇨🇳 Example: China recently granted exclusions on certain US made pharmaceuticals, perhaps because its their only option.

Now I am not saying that we're going to have chaos or immediate shortages.

There are too many variables to make that kind of prediction.

- How much stock each country has
- How difficult will it be to pass important goods through third countries
- How long will it take to restart trade, if there is a deal
- How difficult will it be to start production elsewhere

And remember, almost everything is on a spectrum.

China controlling 30% of supply will have a totally different effect than China controlling 70% of supply.

So no one knows what is going to happen.

We're in uncharted territory when the two largest economies in the world stop directly trading with each other overnight.

And you can't make an accurate analysis by looking at the numbers and trade in aggregate.

Water pumps are important; we need them to move clean water, but we can do without the ones for swimming pools.

So if we don't know what products will be short, and what products won't, what can we say with some level of certainty?

In both countries:

We know that there will be bankruptcies.

We know that there will be accompanying job loss.

We know that there will be higher prices for some things.

And we know that there will be lower prices for others (every company that goes bankrupt fire sales its stock and if people are losing their jobs, purchasing goes down).

And we know that there will be some shortages, because something always goes out of stock (it's too hard to forecast inventory perfectly for the millions of products people need).

And we know that some products are going to not be excluded from the tariffs, when they should've simply because there was no one lobbying for it, or no one sounding the alarm.

So, we know that there's going to be a mess.

But we don't know how it will affect us and how the people of each country will react.

So we'll just have to see, because at this point...

It looks like we're going to have to learn what happens, the hard way.

[Jim Tressel @JimTressel5]

" Gratitude is in itself a wholesome and healing force." David Viscott #QuietTime

[Jim Tressel @JimTressel5]

"Small disciplines repeated with consistency every day lead to great achievements gained slowly over time."  John Maxwell #QuietTime

[Jim Tressel @JimTressel5]

"A dream is a seed which with hard work and discipline will grow; faith in God, which in turn will give you faith in yourself, will bear fruit."  Floyd Patterson #QuietTime

[Jim Tressel @JimTressel5]

" Long term consistency beats short term intensity."  Bruce Lee #QuietTime

[Jim Tressel @JimTressel5]

" Nobody will believe in you unless you believe in yourself."  Liberace #QuietTime

[Jim Tressel @JimTressel5]

" Never regret a day of your life. Good days give happiness, bad days give you experience, worst days give lessons, and best days give memories." #QuietTime

[Jim Tressel @JimTressel5]

" Obstacles are what you see when you take your eyes off your goals."  Brian Tracy #QuietTime

[Jim Tressel @JimTressel5]

"People acting as a group together can accomplish things which no individual alone could ever hope to bring about." Alexander the Great #QuietTime

[Jim Tressel @JimTressel5]

"Decide what is worthwhile and follow through with it." #QuietTime

[Jim Tressel @JimTressel5]

"Know what is right and be tough enough to do it." #QuietTime

[Jim Tressel @JimTressel5]

"Be in the moment. Feel the joy of the dance. This is not a rehearsal. This is your life."  Phil Jackson #QuietTime

[Jim Tressel @JimTressel5]

"The value God has bestowed on every human being is the standard by which you should value others." #QuietTime

[Jim Tressel @JimTressel5]

"It is a tough road that leads to the heights of greatness."  Seneca #QuietTime

[Jim Tressel @JimTressel5]

"Spending a little time calculating the number of things that go right is a simple but powerful way to reactivate our sense of wonder and gratitude."  Richard Carlson #QuietTime