@altcap@elonmusk@Tesla@SpaceX These posts perfectly highlight the difference between those that believe a bigger pie can be created and those who are relentlessly focused on extracting from the current pie, with no vision for a greater future.
If you’re raising right now, reply with your one-sentence gate test:
“What we do + why it wins.”
This one exercise has saved more raises than any deck tweak I’ve ever seen.
I just reviewed 75 capital-raising meetings over the last 60 days. Only 1 in 4 founders could explain their opportunity in a way an investor would remember the next day.
I call it the Investor Translation Gap. It kills more raises than market conditions, valuations, or competition combined. This is the silent killer nobody talks about.
AI has made beautiful decks free.
In 12 months, every deck will look pro. Design stops being the signal.
Clarity of thought becomes the only differentiator.
The Translation Gap is about to be the whole game.
I sat in three capital raising conversations yesterday.
Completely different sectors. A property fund. An AI roll-up. A deep tech IP play.
Every one of them came back to the same two things.
Track record. And communication.
Not the deck. Not the valuation. Not the TAM slide that the founders spend three weeks perfecting.
Investors decide whether they trust your track record and whether they believe you will actually keep them in the loop after the cheque clears.
Here is what I keep seeing. Founders pour everything into the first one and treat the second as an afterthought. They nail the story, then go quiet for two months.
Our investor data backs it up. 75% of investors rank track record as the number one factor in their decision. But the relationships that lead to follow-on cheques and warm referrals are built on the boring stuff. The monthly update you did not feel like writing.
You cannot fake a track record overnight.
Communication is a choice you make every single week.
We surveyed 260 real investors and founders, the people who actually write the cheques and build the companies, about the proposed CGT changes and the Budget’s impact on Australia’s private capital
ecosystem.
Not opinions. Not modelling. Raw, current behaviour.
Here’s what 110 investors + 150 founders told us (this became our official Senate submission):
- 92% of investors are extremely or highly concerned
- 93% of founders are extremely or highly concerned
- 91% of active investors have already reduced their willingness to back Australian companies (62% materially)
From just 74 investors who could quantify it: $87M to $173M+ in capital already delayed, paused or redirected offshore. (Scale that nationally. Sobering.)
Life sciences, medtech and deep tech are getting hit hardest. 72% of investors are pulling back. The exact sectors the government says it wants Australia to lead.
95% of investors and 90% of founders said the CGT changes worry them the most.
Why? Because early-stage investing is a game of portfolios. A handful of winners pay for dozens of losses. The new rules tax the winners on real, inflation-adjusted gains but still provide no relief to losers. Several respondents calculated that effective tax rates on portfolio returns could exceed 100% in realistic scenarios.
Even worse: the 30% minimum tax floor treats a once-in-a-cycle exit like salary. That’s not how risk capital works. The offshore signal is deafening 81% of investors say they are now more likely to deploy capital overseas
57% of founders are already actively considering relocating, expanding or establishing in Singapore, NZ, US or UK
One founder put it bluntly: “This Budget makes Singapore a more rational home for Australian innovation.”We’ve operated in this ecosystem for 16 years. Never seen sentiment this unified. Capital is mobile. Companies can move.
The flywheel that took 20 years to build (founders exiting and becoming angels, early employees taking equity and starting the next wave) can be broken in 18 months. The message from the people who actually fund and build Australian innovation is crystal clear: Target housing if that’s the goal.
Don’t turn a housing reform into a broad tax on the exact capital formation the country needs to grow.
Canberra, are you listening? @GeoffWilsonWAM@CampbellNewman@sbxr