Murcielago

maths | markets, trading

[Murcielago @sthlmlondon]

@dise_tv 144.30

[Murcielago @sthlmlondon]

You could cross the spread and earn 3c per pair of contracts (sell PL winner and buy +1 trophies), and also get a free-roll on the scenario that Arsenal lose the league, while winning the CL (although this might be quite unlikely).

[Murcielago @sthlmlondon]

"Arsenal: Trophies won this season?: 1+ Trophies" is trading below Arsenal to win the Premier League.

Arsenal can win the PL and/or the CL. Assuming zero correlation between these events, the fair probability of winning at least one trophy is ~90c

[Murcielago @sthlmlondon]

I think you could argue for both positive and negative correlation between the two trophies.

Negative: getting knocked out from the CL would allow for more energy and focus on the league title.

Positive: good form / momentum etc.

[Murcielago @sthlmlondon]

Also, I own YES shares for all outcomes (including "Other"). Is it possible to reedem them to $1?

[Murcielago @sthlmlondon]

Is it possible to net out these positions? Very annoying that they don't automatically net. @Polymarket

[Murcielago @sthlmlondon]

@littleVolSwan @Alice_comfy @imotw2 @bennpeifert Thanks. Just delta hedge in general. Is it possible to calculate the delta from a one-touch option?

[Murcielago @sthlmlondon]

@littleVolSwan @Alice_comfy @imotw2 @bennpeifert @bennpeifert any thoughts regarding this? Thanks!

[Murcielago @sthlmlondon]

@littleVolSwan @Alice_comfy @imotw2 @bennpeifert 1) How to delta hedge barrier options
2) Is the price approximation of
"2x the price of a digital = price of a one-touch option" (on the same strike) any good?
Thx!

[Murcielago @sthlmlondon]

@KrisAbdelmessih Hi Kris! Does your substack have a student discount?

[Murcielago @sthlmlondon]

@classpath Thanks! X won’t let me DM you because you don’t follow me, could you DM me first?

[Murcielago @sthlmlondon]

@classpath Hi! Currently working on something similar. Can I DM you?