🚨 Everyone says “the 4-year cycle is back” and the bull market is over.
It’s not. They’re looking at the wrong cycle. 📉➡️📈
Crypto isn’t random — it follows liquidity.
And liquidity follows something most people never look at:
US debt refinancing cycles. 💸🔁
Here’s the simple version 👇
From 2010–2021, the US issued tons of 3–4 year bonds.
When those bonds matured, the Treasury had to refinance them:
💵 Old bonds paid back → investors get a cash wave
📅 New bonds issued later → temporary liquidity surge
⚡ Those surges lined up almost perfectly with past crypto bull runs
That’s why the “4-year cycle” looked so real.
It wasn’t magic — it was debt maturity timing.
But according to macro legend @RaoulGMI (Raoul Pal), something HUGE changed:
In 2021, the US Treasury extended maturities →
the refinancing window stretched to 5 years.
Meaning the biggest liquidity flood is now shifted toward 2025–2026. 🌊
And it gets even bigger…
We’re entering a phase where:
🔽 Fed rate cuts are coming
💵 QE is expected to return
🧾 Trillions in debt must be refinanced
⏳ All at the same time
Rate cuts + QE + refinancing =
the largest liquidity wave of the entire cycle.
So what’s really happening now?
Market manipulation + the old 4-year narrative is scaring people out early.
The goal: make you believe the bull market is finished. 🐻🧟♂️
But the truth?
The real run hasn’t even started. 🚀
Crypto isn’t breaking the cycle —
the cycle shifted, and most people haven’t noticed.
Don’t get trapped here.
Don’t get shaken out.
The liquidity super-cycle is still ahead.
Every 'Death Cross' since 2023 on the Bitcoin chart..
every chart at each of these times looked horrendous... Until it didn't..
Every time Timmy screamed for 'lower only' to then ask 3 weeks later if it was 'too late to buy' the altcoin that had gone up the most since the dip...
He bought said altcoin.. then it came down, he sold once more, then waited until greed came back and he did the same..
95% of people in crypto lose.. it's hard.. because we are emotional creatures.
Everyone gets panicked when market dumps because our monkey minds are looking for patterns to continue.. Short term down says to us it goes lower, we look for reasons that reinforce it. So we never buy when the heard is panicking...
Then when the market rallies strongly, our monkey mind says, we can never go down, we must only go up!!! So those that react to their emotion end up buying.. what do they buy?? the strongest performers of course!
The underlying market is driven by liquidity. When cash is available Market makers rally price higher to cause euphoria and fomo... Earlier buyers use this to take profits.
When liquidity is projected to return to the markets, Market makers will drive prices lower and use news stories to cover their tracks, this creates maximum fear and panic. Providing best prices for whales, smart money to load up... Once they have done so market stabilises because Market makers stop selling, they start buying and then price begins to move higher. Slowly luring the herd back in..
If you bought at at any of the times in those green boxes, your portfolio wouldn't be looking too shabby right now... Not all coins of course, but in general it wouldn't be so bad.
When it recovers it not my business, since that is guess work. However given sentiment combined with positive liquidity flows i think we'll be fine.
@WelphRich You’re really going to laugh now 😂
I believe BTC is going to 90k ish, so it’s just all about timing.
And if you were worried about my last trade don’t worry I moved my stop to B/E on the drop.
@johnnybtrader I had the exact same thoughts as you on the way down, I reposted your liquidation chart.
But I have weekly 0.618 at around 92k mark with fvg 92-88k range. 90k is the number imo.
$DXY breaking out after double bottom - would expect it to retrace to at least 50% level - we could be in for a large correction across the markets.
$NQ $SPY $BTC