Stocksailor

Tech FP&A

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

@blondesnmoney It will come back. Hard to see this being the top for memory

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

@WaterworldCapi1 Roger that

[Daniel S. Loeb @DanielSLoeb1]

HODL

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

@jukan05 When did you buy it

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

@blondesnmoney Putting on some protections?

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

@WaterworldCapi1 How do you interpret the meta news?

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

@WaterworldCapi1 @P_Remarks Why less bullish?

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

@WaterworldCapi1 Which one do u like more here $NVDA or $MSFT?

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

@WaterworldCapi1 @Goulderbilt It’s so stressful. Maybe a sign I’m holding too much memory stocks

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

@WaterworldCapi1 Heard in office today. Finance: can we delay the memory purchase until price comes down? Engineer: nope, our inference workloads are memory bound

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

@Midnight_Captl Every company I have worked at, we sold our products to Apple at cost or low single digit net margin. The fact that Apple couldn’t get cheap memory is is a testament of how tight the market is and its bullish memory

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

@WaterworldCapi1 When did start buying memory stocks? Early 2025?

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

@WaterworldCapi1 That was fun. Let’s do it again in 3 months

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

@WaterworldCapi1 You were right again sir

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

@PythiaR Why $DRAM over $MU?

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

@WaterworldCapi1 @viggy_krishnan OpenAI gave my company one free month of Codex meanwhile Anthropic increasing the contract price on us

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

@blondesnmoney No screenshot please

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

Apple is telling you this time is different and you still bearish memory? They would not raise prices if they think the cycle is short lived

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

What caught my eye in the WSJ's Tim Cook interview was not so much Apple signaling that it will raise device prices, but rather its declaration that it intends to put its enormous cash pile to work.

Contrary to how the WSJ read it, I interpret this differently. Just as Nvidia cut SOCAMM2 capacity because of an LPDDR supply shortage, LPDDR is likely to grow even scarcer going forward, to the point where Apple may have to cut iPhone production. This will demand bolder spending from Apple and pressure it to unwind its previously disciplined spending practices.

Here is my core point. If even Nvidia cannot secure supply, will Apple be able to get enough? If you have already run channel checks, you will know that even Chinese smartphone makers are paying premiums to grab LPDDR.

In the end, Apple will pay prepayments to the memory makers to expand its memory supply, and that is how I read Cook's remark: "We're willing to use our balance sheet to help be a part of the solution."

I do not think this is impossible. Apple paying prepayments is not unprecedented. It has done so before, paying Samsung an advance for OLED. If anything, you could say Tim Cook is the originator of the Nvidia style approach to seizing the supply chain.

[Stocksailor @stocksailer]

@ContrarianCurse Why turbines short?