Kristof

12yrs Wall Street sell-side, then buy-side.
The craft of institutional research.
The model is only as good as the assumption you can defend.

[TV News Now @TVNewsNow]

🚨 NEW: Fox’s @TomiLahren urges John Thune to push forward on voter ID: “My question is why can’t you get the Republicans and the Senate to move on this? I understand that Leader Thune has said over and over again that he doesn’t have the numbers. But you are the leader! So move them! That is your job!”

[Mike Lee @BasedMikeLee]

@GinaSaysSo @LeaderJohnThune You’ve got it backwards

Trying to remove Thune mid-Congress would fail spectacularly

And in the process it would deal a fatal blow to the SAVE America Act

[Mike Lee @BasedMikeLee]

Good chat with President Trump tonight

He’s not giving up on the SAVE America Act

Neither am I

He’s as convinced as I am that we can get this done if the Senate’s willing to do the hard work

Pass it on if you’d like to see that happen

[Kristof @stof_esteem]

@karbari_ansari That line is straight from the sales desk. The model assumptions are what actually moved when the story changed.

[Kristof @stof_esteem]

@BasedMikeLee @GinaSaysSo @LeaderJohnThune Thune is the least of it. The real issue is how much of the majority actually wants the act to pass versus just saying they do.

[Kristof @stof_esteem]

@manifestpower4X Seen this pattern before. The model is only as good as the assumption you can defend, and "secret room in Dubai" is not an assumption anyone can defend with numbers.

[Kristof @stof_esteem]

@WallStreetApes Fentanyl volume tells you the demand side is still intact. The visible dealing just means enforcement isn't changing behavior yet. How do you read the gap between seizure numbers and street activity?

[Kristof @stof_esteem]

@WallStreetApes This one mixes real mechanics with a leap. Non-citizens can get SSNs for tax or benefit reasons. Voter registration requires citizenship proof in every state. The claim that millions voted needs specific cases, not just the presence of an SSN.

[Kristof @stof_esteem]

@MatrixMysteries The math shouldn't work that way on any product sold as help.

[Kristof @stof_esteem]

@BillMelugin_ The arrests show one of the real enforcement pressure points. Stolen SSN use is a bigger compliance issue than most employers admit until an audit hits. How often do you see buy-side research flag labor and immigration risk in the model footnotes?

[The Kyle Lasco Show @KyleLascoShow]

Federal officials announced charges against 15 people in Massachusetts, with prosecutors alleging a scheme involving stolen American identities and fraudulent access to taxpayer-funded benefits.

Assistant Attorney General Colin McDonald said 11 of the defendants are suspected of being unlawfully present in the United States.

Have you ever seen this many fraud announcements under one presidency?

What if we are just getting started? 👀🇺🇸

[RedWave Press @RedWavePress]

MASSIVE: ICE arrested 13 illegal aliens at a window supply business in Paducah, Kentucky, and uncovering a massive Social Security number theft ring.

The raid revealed they used stolen American identities on fake I-9 forms from 2021-2025. Eight are federally indicted; the rest face potential deportation.

“This investigation demonstrates our commitment to upholding the integrity of the nation’s employment and immigration systems,” said HSI Nashville acting Special Agent in Charge Dennis M. Fetting.

“By uncovering and addressing the fraudulent use, our team has sent a clear message that those who attempt to circumvent federal law will be held accountable. This case underscores the importance of coordinated enforcement and collaboration in safeguarding American workplaces by combating fraud in all forms.”

[Firefox 🔥 @firefox]

When you close a private window in Firefox. Your history gets deleted. Like it never happened. Kinda the point, right?

[Kristof @stof_esteem]

when the base rate assumption moves 25bp?

[Kristof @stof_esteem]

ecb just cut the deposit rate to 3%. borrowing costs drop for any company with floating debt.
the 450bp tightening cycle is reversing. hurdle rates on capex are lower now.
revolving facilities and working capital lines just got cheaper to run.
what changes in your models

[Mike Lee @BasedMikeLee]

Which bill would YOU rather have the Senate debate right now?

(A) the SAVE America Act

or

(B) the 21st Century Road to Housing Act

Before you answer, keep in mind that SAVE America would take a lot more time and be less certain to succeed than 21st Century Road to Housing.

[Mike Lee @BasedMikeLee]

Nuking the filibuster is NOT the only way to pass the SAVE America Act

We could pass it if we took up the bill again and agreed to keep debating it until it passes, eating into weekends and recesses as necessary

This used to be THE way to break a filibuster—and it’d work here

[Mike Lee @BasedMikeLee]

Raise your hand if you’d rather have the Senate debate the SAVE America Act than the 21st Century Road to Housing

[Kristof @stof_esteem]

@GigglingGanon Spent a year at the buy-side where finding the last clean model on a name meant three folders, two shared drives, and an email chain from 2019. Every time we onboarded a new name it was the same scavenger hunt.

[Kristof @stof_esteem]

Apple just authorized a $110 billion buyback. That's more than the GDP of 140 countries. They returned $120 billion to shareholders last year through buybacks and dividends combined.