May 1st, 2027 was selected as a conservative estimate for the deadline of Full-RSI, given little to no obstacles to AI dev
Click the link to read our explanation & some advice on what to do next
If we're all functionally dead before 2028, we have 𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 to lose
I recommend @ajeya_cotra's post about implications of the AI R&D report. Ajeya argues:
- A 2x speed-up is dramatic.
- 2x faster progress implies a much larger effective "time warp bubble" speed for staff.
- This could compound extremely fast.
- We aren't prepared.
For people following the weeds of the modeling, I made a small mistake in my math. After correcting this you get 3.8x instead of 4.5x for the software R&D multiplier from RSI. This still corresponds to March 2027 in AI 2027.
Sorry about the error.
We at AIFP are spooked by this information. IF (big IF) Anthropic really is imminently about to meet the RSP threshold of 2x acceleration over baseline, then it seems timelines to full RSI and superintelligence may be very short indeed. For example if we naively optimize the AIFM parameters to achieve 2x acceleration over baseline progress in Jan 2027, we get superintelligence sooner than depicted in AI 2027. We are thinking harder and longer about this now and will hopefully have a lengthier update on our thinking to share in the next week.
Since Sep 1st, STOP AI .live has given public comments to SF politicians to steer them towards banning frontier AI development. Watch our comp here.
https://t.co/HROcS1PI85
We are inspired by the success of Peter Jensen and others like him. Keep pushing all across the country!
THE FIRST LAW IN HISTORY TO BAN SUPERINTELLIGENCE.
It’s a win for humanity! City of Bloomington spearheads the struggle to protect people from the existential risk of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI). The first law in history to ban Superintelligence passed unanimously by the City of Bloomington Indiana Common Council. On the 4th of November 2026 the City of Bloomington said no. Not in our city! The law simply states: “Prohibition on distribution of Superintelligence. No person or corporation shall distribute or permit to be distributed nor deployed into the premises of any citizen or business in our City, any Superintelligence for any purpose.” Sponsored by Dave Rollo, Council District 4 Representative, Ordinance 2026-29 becomes the first law in history where lawmakers actually step up to protect their own citizens from the existential risk of Artificial Superintelligence. The city of Bloomington Indiana has set an example for many more cities to follow.
Thanks to expert witness testimony! @DavidSKrueger@DKokotajlo@AnthonyNAguirre@PeterBerezinBCA
https://t.co/qoJjyZJZjP